Huachuang Securities: MPV single car profit margin higher than the same level SUV, heavy-duty models are expected to bring new catalysts with the launch

Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that the domestic MPV sales volume in 2025 is estimated to be approximately 1.06 million units (calculated according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' wholesale calculation method, the same below). Although MPVs are a niche market, the profit margin per vehicle is higher than that of similar SUVs. The market is currently experiencing a phase of autonomous electrification replacement and high-end expansion. It is essential to focus on the opportunities for autonomous brands in the electric replacement and expansion of high-end/luxury MPVs priced above 400,000 yuan. The launch of significant MPVs is expected to bring new catalysts to the entire vehicle investment. The main points of view of Huachuang Securities are as follows: 0-250,000 yuan economic brands: production materials and household needs prevail, difficult to expand further 1) The consumption demand for MPVs priced 0-150,000 yuan is mainly for production materials, with consumers paying more attention to interior space, cost-effectiveness, and economy. The market capacity is estimated to be about 190,000 units in 2025, with a total of 20 models currently available. The best-selling models sell around 20,000 units per month, and the market capacity is expected to remain around 150,000 units. 2) The main demand for MPVs priced 150,000-250,000 yuan is for household use. The bank estimates that expansion will be challenging after being influenced by the six-seater SUV blue ocean market. Sales are expected to reach 240,000 units in 2025, with 20 models currently available. The best-selling models sell around 6,000 units per month, and the market capacity is expected to be maintained at 250,000-300,000 units. 250,000-600,000 yuan high-end brands: household and business needs prevail, excellent supply drives market expansion 1) Consumers mainly look for household and business use in the 250,000-400,000 yuan MPVs. The launch of high-quality autonomous electric products such as the BYD Tang D9 is expected to drive market expansion. Sales are estimated to reach around 560,000 units in 2025, with a total of 14 models available. Models that sell more than 5,000 units per month include six, with the best-selling models selling around 8,000-9,000 units per month. The demand for household use for families with many members will compete with 6-7 seater mid-to-large SUVs. On the business side, the basic needs of company vehicles and rental cars are stable, and the market capacity is expected to expand slightly. 2) High-end MPVs priced 400,000-600,000 yuan have some luxury attributes and relatively small capacity. The main demand is similar to the 250,000-400,000 yuan consumers, but they have higher demands for brand and quality. The market capacity is about 70,000 units, with a total of six models currently available. The best-selling models sell around 1,000-2,000 units per month. By 2026, the supply of models in the 400,000-600,000 yuan MPV market will be rich, and the market is expected to expand. Luxury MPVs priced above 600,000 yuan: mainly for high-end business receptions, also suitable for top-level private use scenes. The Zunjie MPV is expected to drive a phase of market expansion. Compared to the 400,000-600,000 yuan price range, this group has higher requirements for brand influence, luxury feel, and status symbol attributes, with brand premium as a core driver. The market capacity is about 20,000 units, dominated by Toyota (with Alphard selling about 14,000 units annually) and Mercedes-Benz's imported models. In 2026, this niche market will see the introduction of the first autonomous brand model Zunjie V800, expected to break the market pattern long monopolized by imported models. The Zunjie S800 in the luxury sedan market has achieved demand creation and market expansion through differentiated supply, successfully establishing a brand luxury image. The Zunjie MPV will not simply compete with existing models like the Alphard; luxury customers can have multiple vehicles due to style differences, driving the expansion of this niche market. It is estimated that there will be 8 significant MPV releases in 2026, priced above 400,000 yuan. These new cars include the already launched Galaxy V900 (25.98-32.98 million yuan), the BYD Tang D9 successor (35.98-46.98 million yuan), the anticipated launch in 2026 of the Zerun D99 (expected to sell around 200,000-250,000 units), Zunjie V800, and three MPV models in the 30-60 million yuan range: Zhi Jie (38.98-51.98 million yuan), Xiang Jie, and Zun Jie short axis. Regarding the three MPVs in the similar price range of Zhi Jie, the bank estimates that the brand positioning and price range of Zun Jie short axis MPV will be higher than Zhi Jie and Xiang Jie, with Zhi Jie leaning more towards household use, and Xiang Jie leaning more towards business use. Risk Warning: Macroeconomic and automobile sales are lower than expected, new car launch schedules and sales are lower than expected, etc.