Market value breaks through $2.5 trillion! SpaceX (SPCX.US) continues to perform the biggest IPO frenzy in human history, welcoming options and "Triple Witching Day" liquidity stress test this week.

On Monday, the protagonist of the largest IPO in human history, SpaceX (SPCX.US), closed at $192.46 on its second full trading day, an increase of more than 42% from the IPO issuance price of $135. With a total market value exceeding $2.5 trillion, it has entered the top six in global market value, trailing Amazon.com, Inc. by less than $135 billion. After the IPO greenshoe option was fully exercised and retail investors contributed to 56% of the trading volume on the first day, SpaceX is rapidly approaching the valuation of Amazon.com, Inc. On the second day after IPO, SpaceX rose another 20%, completing a wealth myth in just two days. The secondary market performance of SpaceX is refreshing history at an almost unbelievable speed. On Monday, SPCX reached a high of $188.8 in the U.S. stock market, setting a new all-time high since its IPO. The daily increase exceeded 15% at one point, and the closing increase was locked at around 20%, meaning that investors who bought at the IPO price of $135 had a profit of over 42% in less than two trading days. This increase pushed the company's total market value past the $2.5 trillion mark, surpassing Meta and Berkshire Hathaway to become the sixth largest publicly traded company globally, just behind the fifth-ranked Amazon.com, Inc. (with a market value of about $2.68 trillion). Monday was the first full trading day for SpaceX (officially known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) shares, which opened just before noon Eastern Time on the previous Friday, meaning that its trading time slightly exceeded four hours. The influx of massive funds not only came from the primary market. According to financial data firm Vanda Research, on the first day SpaceX went public, retail investors in the secondary market had a net buying amount of $1.176 billion, accounting for 56% of all retail stock buying in the U.S. stock market that day. Analysts also pointed out that the total amount retail investors bought in the two days before the listing was almost equivalent to the total net buying by retail investors in the entire U.S. stock market last week. Retail investors bought about $18 million worth of SpaceX stock in the first 20 minutes. The frenzy of retail investors, coupled with massive institutional subscriptions - with retail IPO share allocations accounting for only about 20%, oversubscribed by a multiple of about 4 times - created one of the most dramatic IPO supply and demand distortions in recent years. A company that was already valued at over $1.77 trillion in the pre-market went on to inflate its market value by over 40% in just two trading days. SpaceX's strong performance on the first day alleviated concerns about whether the market could absorb such a large IPO, and also paved the way for potential IPOs by large competitors such as Anthropic PBC and OpenAI, which could potentially go public later this year. SpaceX's solid performance also boosted confidence in the AI sector's upward trend, a sector that has been the driving force behind most market gains this year. Full exercise of the greenshoe option: $862 billion in super ammunition and valuation game On Monday, SpaceX officially announced that the IPO oversubscription option ("greenshoe mechanism") was fully exercised, allowing the underwriters to sell an additional 83.3 million shares of stock, increasing the total proceeds to $862 billion, and net proceeds to $857 billion after deducting $500 million in underwriting fees. This tool sends a dual signal. On the one hand, the investment banks have shown by action that market demand far exceeds supply, pushing the net fundraising scale of this IPO to the highest in U.S. stock market history; on the other hand, the greenshoe option gives the underwriters the right to issue additional shares from the company directly, rather than buy back from the market, with the most direct effect being further lowering the actual float ratio of the listed stock. Data shows that SpaceX's IPO total issuance is about 555.6 million shares, accounting for only about 4.2% to 4.9% of the company's total share capital. When almost all tradable chips are snatched up by retail and institutional investors alike, extreme scarcity of liquidity has become one of the core logics supporting the short-term surge in stock prices. Option opening and "Triple Witching Day": Another story this week On Tuesday, Cboe Global Markets will be the first to launch SPCX stock options contracts, with other exchanges expected to follow suit within the week. Several derivative market experts predict that the trading volume of SpaceX options on the first day will be huge, and the implied volatility level may far exceed the average level of U.S. stocks. Well-known market commentator Ophir Gottlieb predicts that SPCX options could set a historical record for first-day trading volume in U.S. dollar terms. The listing of options typically has a dual effect. On the one hand, it provides leverage tools for investors with a long-term bullish view to enhance returns; on the other hand, the presence of put options also provides a tool for bears to express doubt without directly borrowing scarce stock. Under extremely low float conditions, if a large number of speculators collectively buy call options, it may trigger what is known as a "Gamma squeeze" market makers are forced to continue buying in the spot market to hedge upward risk, further boosting stock prices and forming a self-reinforcing spiral. It is extremely coincidental that the landing of this series of events coincides with the first FOMC meeting and press conference of the new Fed Chairman Wash this week. The market currently generally expects the Fed to maintain interest rates in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, and Wash's communication strategy - whether to send hawkish signals, whether to change the dot plot transmission framework, whether to hint at the risk of a rebound in inflation will directly affect the overall pricing of risk assets. Moreover, Thursday will see the quarterly "Triple Witching Day," where index options, stock options, and futures worth trillions of dollars will all expire simultaneously, potentially amplifying market volatility in all key asset classes including SPCX, of course. "The macroeconomic backdrop seems to be moving in a more favorable direction, which may encourage investors to continue taking on more risk," said Angelo Kourkafas, Senior Global Investment Strategist at Edward Jones. "As yields decline and the Fed may slightly loosen some policies, the range of investment opportunities may be expanding. This may encourage investors to focus on market sectors with growth potential and low barriers to entry." In other words, the opening of SpaceX options is not an isolated event, but falls at a crossroads of three factors in resonance: the first news conference of the hawkish new Fed Chairman, the quarterly Triple Witching Day, and the debut of SPCX options - all combined, what retail investors in A shares commonly call "index delivery meets Fed no interest hike," but on Wall Street, this is being referred to as "possibly the busiest shortened trading week in history" by JJ Kinahan, Senior Vice President at Cboe. The final showdown of valuation discrepancies: from greenshoe to selling rights, how long can the rockets still fly? After an IPO driven by retail FOMO, institutional two-way positioning, and the imminent full opening of leveraged derivatives, the story of SpaceX has shifted from "whether it can go public" to "whether this is a price of technological revolution dividends or a super bubble driven by financial leverage on Wall Street." In stark contrast to this frenzy is the almost unanimous skepticism from independent research institutions. Nicolas Owens, a stock analyst at Morningstar, pointed out that the $135 issuance price was significantly overvalued, with his multi-scenario model based on future financial performance giving a fair price of only $63 per share, just a third of the current market price. CFRA analyst Keith Snyder went a step further by giving a rare sell rating, with a target price of $115, lower by 15% to 41% than the issuance price. On the other hand, Nobel laureate in economics Paul Krugman did not mince words in his personal column, describing Musk as a "human Ponzi scheme," criticizing SpaceX's sky-high valuation not being based on fundamentals but on faith in the future and a "Musk premium." Krugman's core question is: SpaceX's two main businesses, Starlink and Starship, have yet to contribute steady and sustainable profits, while its xAI related businesses are still in the early stages of financing and commercialization from a purely fundamental perspective, there is a gap between valuation and existing business that is difficult to bridge with numbers. Max Gokhman, Senior Vice President at Franklin Templeton, hit the nail on the head: "We aren't surprised by the market demand; many investors, especially those watching from the sidelines, have not had the opportunity to enter." But he immediately raises a more critical question: "When the flames of the retail rocket demand subside, and institutional investors and employees with expired lock-up periods begin to sell, what will happen? At that time, who will be the marginal buyer will become the most important variable." At this moment when SpaceX crosses the $2.5 trillion market value mark, investors can clearly see two completely different narrative lines unfolding in parallel: one line is Musk's long-term vision of artificial intelligence, space exploration, and the overturning of the future by Siasun Robot & Automation; the other line is an extreme financial structure composed of the greenshoe mechanism, zero float, Gamma squeeze, 56% retail buying proportion, and short-term speculative signals. If the former eventually prevails over the latter, SpaceX will start from a $2.5 trillion market value and move towards $5 trillion or even higher; if the latter dominates the trend, then this may be the beginning of a liquidity storm in Wall Street's textbook "leverage trapping leverage". The answer may come to the surface in the derivative market this week as SPCX options contracts begin trading, the game of betting on the direction of this "rocket stock" has moved on to version 2.0.