Overnight US stocks | Trump says the Strait of Hormuz "partially open", Nasdaq rises more than 3%, SpaceX continues to rise nearly 20%

On Monday, the three major indices surged, with the Nasdaq rising over 3%. U.S. President Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz was "partially open" and would be fully open on Friday. After a 19% increase in SpaceX's stock price on the first day of trading last Friday, it rose nearly 20% on Monday, with a total market value soaring to $2.52 trillion. [Stocks] At the close, the Dow rose 468.77 points, up 0.92% to 51,671.03 points; the Nasdaq rose 795.09 points, up 3.07% to 26,683.94 points; the S&P 500 Index rose 122.83 points, up 1.65% to 7,554.29 points. SpaceX (SPCX.US) surged nearly 20%, with a market value surpassing $2.5 trillion. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) rose over 3%, Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) rose over 4%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.3%, while iQIYI, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (IQ.US) rose nearly 2%. [European Stocks] The DAX30 index in Germany rose 282.44 points, up 1.15% to 24,895.00 points; the FTSE 100 index in the UK fell 39.98 points, down 0.38% to 10,431.74 points; the CAC40 index in France rose 33.14 points, up 0.40% to 8,384.01 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 41.72 points, up 0.67% to 6,229.35 points; the IBEX35 index in Spain rose 271.38 points, up 1.45% to 19,035.78 points; the FTSE MIB index in Italy rose 342.29 points, up 0.66% to 51,839.50 points. [Asian Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 index rose 4.99%, the KOSPI rose 5.2%, and the Sensex index in India rose 0.97%. [US Dollar Index] The US dollar index against six major currencies fell 0.12% on the day, closing at 99.631 in the forex market. At the close of the New York market, 1 euro exchanged for 1.1595 US dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.1575 US dollars; 1 pound exchanged for 1.3419 US dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.3416 US dollars. 1 US dollar exchanged for 160.31 Japanese yen, higher than the previous trading day's 160.24 Japanese yen; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.7940 Swiss francs, lower than the previous trading day's 0.7968 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.3987 Canadian dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.3980 Canadian dollars; 1 US dollar exchanged for 9.3913 Swedish krona, lower than the previous trading day's 9.4215 Swedish krona. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose 1.5%, trading at $66,408, while Ethereum rose over 5%, trading at $1,808. [Oil] The price of light crude oil futures for delivery in July on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $4.13 to close at $80.75 per barrel, down 4.87%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for delivery in August fell $4.16 to close at $83.17 per barrel, down 4.76%. [Precious Metals] Spot gold broke through $4300, trading at $4,308.93. Spot silver traded at $70.003. [Macro News] U.S. spot petrochemical prices fall as Iran premium gradually withdrawn. Last week, U.S. petrochemical prices continued to soft due to the easing of export demand between the U.S. and Iran, but a series of operational issues along the Gulf Coast limited further price declines. Ethylene prices fell by 4.1%, while propylene grade polypropylene (PGP) fell by 9.8%. Traders say that the decline in export demand continues to put pressure on the petrochemical products market as political risk premiums associated with conflicts with Iran gradually dissipate. Nevertheless, prices for these products are still higher than pre-war levels. The disruption of transportation of critical materials and chemicals in the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East conflict resulted in a substantial increase in spot market prices for U.S. petrochemical products, causing global supply shortages and boosting demand for U.S. products. Despite the price decline, the price of benzyl butyl phthalate remains stable at 63.5 cents per pound. This chemical is used in the production of synthetic rubber tires, with over 70% still being one of the most resilient products in the petrochemical industry. PGIM predicts three rate hikes this year, with policy reversal in 2027. U.S. asset management company PGIM holds a nuanced view, believing that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times this year to curb overheating economic conditions, before reversing the policy in 2027. The company previously predicted a rate cut by the Fed earlier in April this year. PGIM states that the U.S. economy is "exceptionally strong," with inflation persistently high, necessitating new policy strategies. Given this background and the Fed's inability to reach its 2% target for the past five years, PGIM expects the Fed to raise interest rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM states, "If rate hikes are described as 'preventive' measures against supply-side inflation and recent long-term bond volatility, then Powell will gain political support." However, PGIM suggests that the Fed "will relatively quickly reverse these rate hikes, cutting three times in 2027 and once in 2028, with the final rate at 3.375% - lower than current rates, possibly approaching neutral rates." U.S. strategic oil reserves fall to 43-year low. With the Trump administration set to complete the release of 172 million barrels of strategic oil reserves (SPR) to alleviate the surge in fuel prices caused by the Iran conflict, the U.S.' emergency crude reserves have fallen to their lowest levels since 1983. According to data released by the U.S. Energy Dept. on Monday, the strategic oil reserves (established in the early 1970s after the Arab oil embargo) have fallen to around 340 million barrels, close to historic lows. If the plan is executed, it will be the second-largest release in the history of the reserve, leaving about 243 million barrels remaining, roughly a third of its statutory capacity. Diminishing inventories reduce U.S. flexibility in responding to future supply disruptions. An Energy Dept. spokesperson states that the government is managing the reserve as anticipated, helping stabilize the oil market, protect the U.S. from supply disruptions, and enhance energy security. Trump: Will reveal text of U.S.-Iran agreement after signing on Friday. The important thing is that oil prices have fallen and the stock market has risen. Trump, meeting with French President Macron, stated that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully open on Friday and the agreement has already been fully signed (electronically). The text of the Iran agreement will be released after Friday. He emphasized that sanctions on Iran will not be lifted until they fulfill their obligations. He may or may not participate in the signing of the agreement personally, with Vice President Pence likely to sign instead. Trump expressed hope to establish a good relationship with Iran and will implement strong oversight. He made it clear that Iran will not have nuclear weapons. Furthermore, Trump expressed a desire to resolve issues in Lebanon. He stressed that the significant drop in oil prices and the rise in the stock market were important. IMF warns global economy still faces repercussions from the Middle East conflict. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that it remains "highly vigilant" about the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global economy and warns that even though the U.S. and Iran have announced an agreement to restart the Strait of Hormuz, energy supply restoration will take time. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva wrote in a blog post on Monday: "So far, it is comforting that the global economy has been able to withstand this shock, but we must not be complacent. Commodity prices, inflation and expectations, and the financial environment have all been affected, but they have not yet reached the level indicating a slowdown of the global economy." Georgieva states that over the past few months, the impact of energy shortages on the global economy has been cushioned by technological advances, especially in the field of artificial intelligence and data centers. "The U.S. is benefiting from this global technological cycle, as are some of the Asian economies with faster growth in technology product exports." However, most countries have not truly felt the push of technological advancement on productivity and economic growth, causing concerns about further differentiation in the global economy. UBS Group AG: U.S.-Iran agreement reduces pressure on Fed rate hikes, next move is rate cuts in 2027. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS Group AG's global wealth management, states that after the U.S. and Iran announced an agreement, oil prices have fallen, and as a result, the U.S. bond market has strengthened, reducing pressure on the Fed's rate hikes this year. Falconio says, "Even as oil prices began to fall before the ceasefire agreement, the two-year U.S. bond yield continued to climb as the market priced in almost a 100% probability of a rate hike in December." "Now, as oil prices fall and the market gradually backs off these rate hike expectations, the two-year U.S. bond yield begins to decline." The new Fed chairman, Powell, will lead his first interest rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of the rekindled inflation pressure due to the surge in oil prices, internal support within the FOMC for rate hikes this year continues to grow. Falconio expects the FOMC to officially abandon its dovish stance at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. However, she still believes the Fed's next move will be rate cuts, with timing set in 2027. U.S. homebuilder confidence in June hits a low point, southern region weighs heavily. U.S. homebuilder confidence further declined in June, driven by rising mortgage rates and construction material costs, while confidence in the southern region of the U.S. significantly deteriorated. Data released by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo & Company on Monday shows that the Market Index measuring overall market conditions fell 2 points to 35, below market expectations. As the largest residential construction region in the U.S., confidence in the southern region saw its largest decline since November 2023. The NAHB states that June marks the 14th consecutive month that the index has been below 40, setting a record for the longest sustained slump since 2011-2012. Looking at the sub-indexes, the current sales outlook index dropped 2 points to 38, while the future sales expectations and prospective buyer traffic indexes remained steady. The NAHB attributes part of the decline in the overall index to rising building material prices, increased financing costs, and regulatory factors hindering residential construction. [Individual Stock News] NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) issues investment-grade bonds for the first time in five years, with subscriptions reaching $850 billion. NVIDIA Corporation is expected to raise $250 billion through the issuance of investment-grade bonds, with subscription demand exceeding three times the intended issuance size, highlighting investors' eagerness to get a piece of the artificial intelligence pie. According to sources, the bond offering attracted subscription demand of $850 billion. Another source stated that NVIDIA Corporation will issue bonds in seven tranches with maturities ranging from 2 to 30 years. The source indicated that the pricing of the longest-dated bonds issued by NVIDIA Corporation this time was about 0.65 percentage points higher than U.S. Treasury yields. The source also mentioned that the funds raised from this bond issuance would be used for refinancing existing debt and other purposes. This marks the first time in five years that NVIDIA Corporation has issued investment-grade bonds. Michael Saylor: Strategy (MSTR.US) boosts U.S. dollar reserves to $1.1 billion. Michael Saylor, the founder of Strategy, stated on social media that the company has recently purchased 1,587 bitcoins, investing approximately $100 million, bringing its total bitcoin reserves to 846,842 coins. At the same time, the company has increased its U.S. dollar reserves by $100 million, to around $1.1 billion, further enhancing liquidity reserve capabilities. This operation shows that while Strategy continues to accumulate bitcoins, it is also simultaneously expanding its cash position to improve the liquidity and risk resistance of its balance sheet. As of now, Strategy remains one of the largest publicly traded companies globally holding bitcoins.