From a $2 trillion market value perspective on SpaceX (SPCX.US): Stripping away emotional bias, seeking definite industrial dividends.
The 109x PS valuation has transformed the statement "SpaceX going public will redefine the value of aerospace companies" from just a slogan into a pricing question that must be addressed positively now.
Amid much anticipation, SpaceX officially landed on the NASDAQ on June 12th. The stock performed strongly on its first day, with prices jumping over 30% at one point, ultimately closing at $160.95, representing a 19.22% increase. With a market value solidly exceeding $2.1 trillion, SpaceX has become the eighth largest publicly traded company in the US.
With SpaceX's successful IPO, Elon Musk officially became the world's first "trillionaire," with a wealth approximately 3.6 times that of the second-ranking Larry Page. At the same time, this capital feast also benefitted internal employees. According to market reports, SpaceX's IPO has created approximately 4,400 millionaires, with nearly 400 individuals holding shares worth over a billion.
In terms of industry progress, SpaceX's IPO undoubtedly marks a milestone event in global commercial history. However, what truly captivated the global capital markets was SpaceX's valuation, with its 109 times PS valuation shifting the narrative from "SpaceX's IPO will redefine the value of aerospace companies" from a slogan to a necessary response to pricing questions: is the market valuing cash flow, platform options, or the narrative itself?
When an industry milestone coincides with a company's PS ratio reaching 109 times, the market tends to produce two extreme reactions: mythologizing the story or bursting the bubble. However, for investors, the most valuable proposition is to see through the emotions brought by SpaceX's IPO, understand the industry transmission path, and filter out risks and verifiable opportunities from the noise.
With only 3.6% of float shares offered in SpaceX's IPO, the scarcity of chips is a cause for concern. The scarce float shares were a critical support for SpaceX's successful first day of trading.
Considering the three main business sectors of SpaceX - space launch services, Starlink, and AI services - Starlink is the only profitable business, generating the bulk of the revenue and cash flow. The high valuation of SpaceX is based on the potential revenue models projected up to 2040, indicating that there are funds willing to invest in SpaceX's long-term prospects.
While some analysts argue that SpaceX's valuation is overblown, the three factors of Musk's image, the grand narrative of the space infrastructure platform, and the scarcity of float shares easily influence the pricing power back to emotions and supply demand: the stock price may continue to soar under enthusiastic promotion. Still, once the trend overflows, it can also boost the supply chain (especially verified key suppliers) in a phase of rising prices.
In the long run, the global commercial aerospace industry's trend will not be shaken by SpaceX's IPO. On the contrary, SpaceX is accelerating its expansion with capital market access, making the scarcity of low earth orbit assets a tangible constraint, prompting countries to accelerate satellite constellation construction from a strategic slogan to real commitment. In China, facing international rule pressures, the urgency of national low-orbit constellations such as Star Network and G60 has only increased, with policy support and equipment production logic clear in the commercial aerospace industry in China.
In mapping the supply chain stock selection, the focus should be on key sectors such as core components for satellite systems, key aerospace materials, and components, critical engine components and processes, and satellite assembly/manufacturing platforms. Investing in these areas with high certainty and opportunities for growth can yield long-term benefits.
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