Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | US and Iran Reach Peace Agreement Aviation Sector May See Valuation Recovery (with concept stocks)

According to Iranian media reports on the 15th, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement in the early morning officially confirming the agreement between Iran and the United States on a ceasefire memorandum. The Iranian National Security Council stated that the text of the memorandum between Iran and the United States has been finalized. The memorandum will be signed on Friday, June 19. Despite opposition from Netanyahu, Trump has reached an agreement on the Iranian nuclear deal. US President Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen when the agreement is signed on Friday. Restoring energy shipments through this key waterway will ease the pressure of rising oil prices, which have been driving up inflation and dampening global economic growth prospects. International oil prices have plummeted. As of press time, Brent crude futures fell by nearly 4%, to $83.90 per barrel; WTI crude futures fell by over 4%, to $81.19 per barrel. European natural gas futures prices have also fallen sharply, dropping by as much as 5.8%. Haitong International released a research report stating that the impasse in the Strait of Hormuz is one of the core sources of the "summer cold wind" this time. In recent negotiations between the US and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, an agreement is close to being reached, and the related agreements are expected to be reached. "Reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible" will allow global stock markets to breathe a sigh of relief from the pressure of adjustment in the short term. Subsequently, risk appetite is expected to show short-term recovery. The "summer cold wind" is the financial impact on global stock markets, which is expected to come to an end in the short term, but risks are not completely eliminated, and in July, we need to remain vigilant against the impact of oil inventory replenishment, the high stickiness of inflation in major economies such as Europe and the United States, and financing pressure. The significant drop in international oil prices is expected to greatly alleviate cost pressures on airlines. IATA previously predicted that aviation fuel costs in 2026 are expected to increase from $252 billion in 2025 to $350 billion. Cathay Haitong released a research report stating that domestic aviation fuel ex-factory prices were reduced by 15% in June, in line with our expectations; The ratio of domestic fuel surcharge prices has increased compared to May. The summer peak season pre-sale has not yet started, and the start of the summer peak season after the middle school exams end is expected to ensure that the supply and demand with falling oil prices will safeguard the transmission of oil prices to airlines. The high oil prices and the off-season provide a counter-cyclical opportunity. Stocks related to the aviation sector in Hong Kong: China Eastern Airlines (00670), Air China Limited (00753), China Southern Airlines (01055), Cathay Pacific Airways (00293)