Zhongtai: The certainty of bank performance will bring steady income, while in the short term it is related to market style.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that the strong production end of the economy (technology, manufacturing, and exports) is driving strong demand for corporate loans and maintaining asset quality; promoting revenue and performance growth. The demand end of the economy (consumption and real estate) and private investment are still weak; retail loan demand at banks is weak as well, leading to low risk appetite among residents who accept low interest rates on maturing deposits, favoring bank interest margins. In terms of industry landscape, banks with strong corporate business (large banks and city commercial banks) have relatively strong performance. The certainty of bank performance will bring stable income, while in the short term, it is related to market trends; in stock selection, focus on corporate business and specifically recommend high-quality city commercial banks. Key points from Zhongtai: Policy: The current macro environment is characterized by "K-shaped differentiation, with strong supply and weak demand," with new productive forces, exports, and manufacturing supporting the production end, while real estate and consumption are relatively weak at the demand end. Under this situation, policies are maintaining stability, with interest rates and liquidity remaining "stable": fund rates are stable near policy rates, even though the loosest phase has passed, financing demand needs to be boosted, banks are facing a shortage of assets, and with stable exchange rate demands, the environment does not support systemic tightening of liquidity. The implication of this is twofold: firstly, stable liquidity means that the configuration environment for the bank dividend logic is stable, with high dividend yields providing a guarantee compared to government bonds, which is a prerequisite for allocating such assets; secondly, in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, the main theme of bank operations still falls on corporate, with the credit demand and asset quality of large banks and city commercial banks relatively stable. Fundamentals: The mapping of economic models to bank fundamentals brings strong performance certainty. The "strong supply and weak demand" situation is supported by both the asset side and the liability side of the bank: a strong production end (technology, manufacturing, exports) corresponds to strong demand for corporate loans, stable asset quality, and drives revenue beyond expectations, with good net profit growth; weak demand at the demand end is a two-sided situation, with low risk appetite among residents, funds deposited as low-interest fixed deposits, and interest spreads being stabilized, providing support. Both the "quantity" on the asset side and the "price" on the liability side benefit, which is the source of switching revenue from "quantity-based price supplementation" to "quantity-price resonance," and is a key difference in this round of repair compared to previous ones. Structurally, large banks and high-quality city commercial banks with a focus on corporate business benefit more directly and have relatively strong performance, while shareholding banks with a high proportion of retail banking are relatively under pressure in the short term. The continuation of this model (strong policy determination), the bottoming out of interest margins, and revenue will continue to be a highlight of the sector, with the strong performance certainty of bank "stable profit assets" forming the cornerstone of sector investment logic in 2026. Funding: The funding that has suppressed the sector in the past is now reversing. Large institutions...