Zhongtai: Demand gives birth to high-quality fresh snacks race track. The industry is moving towards the stage of store expansion.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that the demand for healthy and experiential consumption is driving the development of a high-quality track for fresh snacks. The core changes in the fresh snack format are: products shifting from long-term standard products to short-term high turnover on-demand, pricing transitioning from brand premium to transparent ingredient-driven quality-price ratio, channels moving away from multi-level distribution to direct connection with end consumers. The current format has completed partial regional model verification. The track size is expected to reach 18-25 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of over 20% in the next five years, outperforming traditional snack consumption. Capital continues to increase investment, leading local players like Jinlimen and Yulie steadily expanding their stores, while crossover players like Juewei enter the market. The industry is moving from regional trials to store expansion stage. Key points from Zhongtai include: Nature of the format: What is fresh snacks? Fresh snacks are a new format that combines snack retail with light dining, with core features of short-term, on-demand, and cleanliness. The average customer spend is between 40-60 yuan, targeting 18-35-year-old high-income white-collar workers and young customers. Compared to snack wholesalers, the main products have a shelf life of 1-30 days, with SKU streamlined to 300-800 items (traditional wholesalers have over 2,000 items); in comparison to Sam's Club/Hema, transforming small sizes into popular items and producing own-demand non-standard products to achieve quality-price advantages, resulting in a 35%-70% lower average price. The industry is expected to reach a size of 18-25 billion yuan by 2025 with a CAGR of over 20%. Leading players like Yulie, Qiduoquan, and Jinlimen will expand their presence, while crossover players like Juewei and BUSYMING will try out the format. The industry is transitioning from single-store validation to gradual expansion. Supply-demand logic: Why are fresh snacks rising? On the demand side, the rise of health consciousness has led to 67% of consumers willing to pay a premium for clean labels. The growth of offline experiential consumption, with transparent on-demand products and trial-tasting experiences facilitating social media interactions. The trend of smaller households driving demand for small-packaging and on-the-go snacks. The expansion of self-gratification consumption, transforming snacks from stock-piling to afternoon tea and snacking scenarios such as commuting. On the supply side, the mature cold chain infrastructure in China, central kitchen outsourcing reducing entry barriers. Commercial real estate renovation, shopping centers introducing experience-based snacks. Traditional snack players shifting to cross-industry expansion. Increased capital investment, with over 20 financing rounds in 2025 totaling over 1 billion yuan, moving from influencer-driven valuations to supply chain and single-store valuations. Competitive landscape: What is the current competition like? Currently, the industry is dominated by regional leaders and various players from different factions. Leading players like Yulie, Qiduoquan are strong in Hunan, Pumama focus on the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, and Yulie anchors in the northern market with nearly 300 stores. The second-tier players consist of crossover giants (Juewei, BUSYMING, ChaYanYueSe) and local newcomers from different regions. Players are divided into five major factions: native snack brands, cross-industry seasoned foods, wholesalers, tea-based drinks, and regional food manufacturers, with location selection logic varying based on resource differentiation. Looking ahead, the report believes that competition in the fresh snack market may not be limited to the same industry: 1) Wholesalers are adding short-term products to attract lower-priced customers through bulk purchasing; 2) Convenience store chains like FamilyMart and Lawson leverage their mature short-term fresh food systems and community locations to attract daily repeat customers, leading the competition from within categories to overall channel competition. The industry is experiencing accelerated brand consolidation through homogenized decoration and imitation of popular items. Growth boundaries: How far can fresh snacks go? In the short term, the ceiling for store openings is determined by the quality commercial districts, with a neutral estimate of around 6,000 reasonable stores for the industry in the short term. In the medium to long term, success will depend on whether franchising models can land in lower-tier markets due to high customer spend and limited consumption awareness, with a combination of large and small stores in commercial districts being key to future expansion. Long-term success hinges on: 1) Supply chain: building central kitchens and cold chains to reduce waste (industry average loss 8%-15%, significant optimization for self-built factories); 2) Product differentiation: continual focus on differentiated products and defining category standards to build user loyalty; 3) Food safety control: a standardized, transparent quality control system is necessary to navigate industry cycles and achieve long-term stable growth. Risks: Risks include intensified industry competition, lower-than-expected consumer demand, food safety risks, inaccuracies in market size estimates, risks of third-party data distortion, and risks of outdated research report information.