HAITONG INT'L: US-Iran agreement contributes to stock market rebound, risk appetite expected to see short-term recovery.

HAITONG INT'L released a research report stating that the dilemma in the Strait of Hormuz is one of the core sources of the current "summer cold wind". Recently, negotiations between the US and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz have been close to agreement, and related agreements are expected to be reached. "Reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible" will allow global stock markets to get some relief from adjustment pressure in the short term. Subsequently, risk appetite is expected to see a short-term recovery. The "summer cold wind" refers to the financial shocks affecting global stock markets, which are expected to come to an end in the short term, but risks are not completely eliminated. In July, it is still necessary to be cautious of the impact of crude oil inventory replenishment, high stickiness of inflation in major economies such as Europe and the US, and financing pressure. HAITONG INT'L's main points are as follows: The dilemma in the Strait of Hormuz is one of the core sources of the current "summer cold wind". Recently, negotiations between the US and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz have been close to agreement, and related agreements are expected to be reached. "Reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible" will allow global stock markets to get some relief from adjustment pressure in the short term. The previous "summer cold wind" caused a double hit to overseas stocks and bonds. Rising US bond rates, leveraged deleveraging of technology stocks, oil price impacts, and geopolitical risks have already led to a significant and turbulent adjustment in global stock markets, releasing some of the risks of overvalued and highly crowded assets. Subsequently, risk appetite is expected to see a short-term recovery. The "summer cold wind" refers to the financial shocks affecting global stock markets, which are expected to come to an end in the short term, but risks are not completely eliminated. In July, it is still necessary to be cautious of the impact of crude oil inventory replenishment, high stickiness of inflation in major economies such as Europe and the US, and financing pressure. Last week, as expectations for a peaceful agreement between the US and Iran continued to rise, oil prices came under pressure and fell back, cooling inflation expectations pushed the US stock index higher, US bond yields fell, with the 10-year US Treasury yield down by 3.6bp to 4.485%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield down by 2.3bp to 4.97%. The US dollar weakened, falling 0.3% to 99.8 last week. A-share market: from 6/8 to 6/11 Margin financing funds flowed out of the A-share market by 33.1 billion yuan; in terms of ETFs, after 11 consecutive weeks of outflows, broad-based ETFs turned into net inflows by 9.4 billion yuan, and industry ETFs turned into net inflows by 1.6 billion yuan after 12 consecutive weeks of outflows. Among them, net inflows occurred in the communication, Siasun Robot&Automation, 5G, banking, and artificial intelligence sectors, while net outflows occurred in the chip, securities, gold, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment sectors. Hong Kong stocks: overall short selling turnover ratio dropped to 17%, with Evergrande short selling ratio maintained at 18%. Southbound funds had a net inflow of 4.3 billion Hong Kong dollars last week, with a turnover ratio dropping to 19.1%. Alibaba turned into a large net outflow of 5.8 billion Hong Kong dollars, while Tencent saw its net inflow expand to 4.9 billion Hong Kong dollars; Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock turned into a net inflow of 2.4 billion Hong Kong dollars, and HUA HONG GRACE continued to have a net inflow of 0.5 billion Hong Kong dollars. In terms of industries, from 6/4 to 6/10, funds continued to flow significantly into the information technology sector, with continued inflows into communication services, finance, and industry sectors, while energy sector inflows slowed down; net outflows occurred in innovative drugs and e-commerce, and the net outflow in the metal sector further expanded. Last week (6/4-6/10), foreign capital continued to flow out of the Hong Kong stock market by 8 billion Hong Kong dollars, while local intermediaries in Hong Kong continued to have a net inflow of 1.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, and mainland Chinese intermediaries turned into a net inflow of 10.6 billion Hong Kong dollars. Mainland funds' Hong Kong stock connect ETFs continued to have a net outflow of 10.2 billion yuan, with outflows seen in technology, finance, innovative drugs, dividends, consumption, and broad-based sectors. Last week, the unlocking market value in the Hong Kong stock market reached 14.1 billion Hong Kong dollars, and is expected to reach 12.1 billion Hong Kong dollars this week. Risk warning: The risk of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates as expected; The pace of China's economic recovery and debt restructuring risk.