Guotai Haitong: It is expected that El Nio will warm up and strengthen the demand for summer vacations.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that under the strong expectation of El Nino, high temperatures may catalyze related consumer demand for summer travel and household backup power supply chain. It is recommended to focus on the following directions: 1) Cool destination assets: Resources such as high latitude, high altitude, mountain lakes, and forest ecology have a real sense of temperature difference, with strong elasticity in summer passenger flow; 2) Consumer-grade energy storage assets: Under extreme weather disturbances, the demand for household backup power supply is expected to increase. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: There is a high probability of El Nino development, and the expectation of high temperatures may intensify the demand for summer cooling. According to the latest forecasts from NOAA and WMO, the probability of El Nino forming in 2026 has significantly increased, and there is a possibility of moderate to strong evolution. El Nino usually raises the global average temperature and increases the probability of extreme weather events. WMO also predicts that in June to August 2026, temperatures in most parts of the world will be above average. Domestically, the National Climate Center predicts that during the main flood season, most parts of the country will have higher temperatures and more hot days, which may impact residents' travel decisions. The bank believes that under the overlapping demand for "summer cooling, parent-child activities, long-distance travel, and natural scenery" at the consumer end, destinations with cool resources are expected to have stronger elasticity in summer passenger flow. In historical El Nino years, the performance of cool destination passenger flow has been good, and the demand for summer cooling assets is increasing. In El Nino years such as 2004, 2009, 2015, 2018, and 2023, the passenger flow growth rates in destinations such as Xinjiang, Tibet, Jilin, and Changbai Mountain Tourism were mostly positive. Excluding the disturbance of the low base of 2023 after the epidemic, the average growth rate of tourists in Xinjiang during El Nino years was about 21.2%, Tibet about 62.2%, Jilin about 15.9%, and Changbai Mountain Tourism about 14.6%. In 2015, tourists to Xinjiang, Tibet, Jilin, and Changbai Mountain Tourism increased by about 23.4%, 28.8%, 16.5%, and 11.4% respectively; in 2018, the increase was about 43.2%, 31.5%, 15.3%, and 12.5% respectively. Consumer-grade energy storage: Extreme weather may increase local fluctuations in power supply and demand, benefiting consumer-grade energy storage demand. El Nino may simultaneously amplify extreme events such as high temperatures, droughts, and heavy rainfall. High temperatures will increase the demand for air conditioning and refrigeration equipment, and extreme weather may also increase the probability of local power outages, thereby enhancing residents' awareness and demand for emergency power sources, portable energy storage, balcony photovoltaic energy storage, and household energy storage products. Risk warning: Uncertainty in climate forecasts, impact of extreme summer weather, slower-than-expected recovery in consumer willingness.