With chips scarce, UISEE TECH (01511) has risen by over 60% in 17 trading days. The valuation is hanging high with only the final push needed for listing.

UISEE TECH, a level 4 autonomous driving manufacturer specializing in closed scenes such as airports and industrial areas, has been racing towards achieving access to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after its debut on May 20. The stock price of UISEE TECH surged to a high of 95.95 Hong Kong dollars in 17 trading days, nearly 60% higher than its IPO price of 60.3 Hong Kong dollars, bringing the company's total market value above 15 billion Hong Kong dollars. According to the rapid inclusion mechanism of the Hang Seng Index, UISEE TECH needs to maintain a stock price of at least 88.21 Hong Kong dollars by June 30 to cross the market value threshold and secure access eligibility to the Hang Seng Stock Connect. Although the current real-time price is already above this target, the true test will be whether the stock price can be maintained at a high level and the daily average market value can be preserved in the remaining trading days. With the stock price soaring rapidly, there is a high probability that the company's valuation has already exceeded its current business value. Even if it manages to stabilize the price relying on scarce chips and achieve access as desired, the pressure of high valuation hanging like the "Sword of Damocles" may lead to a necessary correction in valuation in the future. Building a strong foundation for upward growth with scarce chips, solid reorganization, and consolidating undercurrents UISEE TECH's continuous rise and rapid breakthrough since going public can be attributed to its relatively small free float. As a technology company specializing in L4 autonomous driving solutions in the Greater China region, UISEE TECH initially planned to issue 14.4612 million H shares at a price of 60.30 Hong Kong dollars, with 0.7231 million shares offered publicly, accounting for 5% of the total shares issued, and 13.7381 million shares offered internationally, accounting for 95%. Apparently, in this issuance plan, UISEE TECH hoped that more of the chips would be concentrated in the hands of institutions rather than retail investors. After the end of the IPO, the company received 5.66 times oversubscription in the international placement, and 6777.29 times oversubscription in the public offering, triggering a rollback mechanism. The public offering shares were increased to 2.89225 million H shares, accounting for 20% of the total shares issued, and international placement shares amounted to 11.56895 million shares, accounting for 80% of the total shares issued. It is worth noting that the overall scale of UISEE TECH's issuance this time was quite restrained, with the total shares issued of 14.4612 million accounting for only 8.9% of the company's total share capital. More critically, the introduction of cornerstone investors further strengthened this scarcity - the large lock-ups of cornerstone investors in the international placement process effectively "froze" a large number of chips in advance, significantly weakening the actual selling pressure in the secondary market. In its IPO, UISEE TECH introduced three cornerstone investors who locked up 4.3322 million H shares, accounting for 29.96% of the total issuance scale, almost one-third of the total shares issued were taken by cornerstone investors. As a result, the actual number of freely tradable shares after listing was only 10.129 million H shares, accounting for 6.23% of the company's total share capital, making it a typical "pocket" floating share. Furthermore, the concentration of UISEE TECH's international placement is significantly high. According to the allocation results, the top five underwriters of UISEE TECH hold a proportion of shares totaling 54.67% of the total shares issued, indicating that the majority of the distributable shares were absorbed by a small number of accounts - this is a typical "narrow base underwriting" structure, characterized by thin trading volume, high fluctuations on the first day, which is a mathematical inevitability. On the first day of trading, UISEE TECH indeed exhibited pronounced large fluctuations in its stock price, presenting a textbook example of "panic washing." The stock price quickly dropped after a slight low opening in the morning, reaching a second low of 50 Hong Kong dollars (down more than 17% from the IPO price) before hitting the turning point of the day; subsequent major funds continued to absorb capital at low levels due to panic sentiment, driving the stock price to rise sharply and briefly turn positive. Although it closed down 4.64% at the end of the day, the overall market showed a pattern of "underwater wide fluctuations, full exchange of chips." In the following two trading days, UISEE TECH continued with intense volatility to clear out short-term positions and further consolidate chip concentration. By the fourth trading day, after completing the replacement of low-level chips, the stock price officially began a surge of substantial magnitude. The successive voluntary announcements at the end of May perfectly fueled this upward trend. On May 27, UISEE TECH announced that it had expanded its autonomous driving operations from baggage towing to passenger shuttles at Xinjiang Airport Group, securing contracts for an additional 10 buses and 6 delivery vehicles to validate the large-scale reproduction of closed-surface scenarios. By June 2, the company announced a collaboration with Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock to mass-produce and deliver the first overseas right-hand drive model (Indonesia) with an integrated smart driving system, marking the official entry of its passenger car smart driving solution into the "global mass production" track. These two voluntary announcements ignited the market sentiment and drove the stock price into an accelerated upward channel. In conclusion, UISEE TECH's sharp rise this time is not accidental but a carefully calculated game of chips. With a small total float and nearly one-third locked up by cornerstone investors, coupled with the high concentration of international placements, the extreme wide fluctuations in the first three days before listing completed the "final wash." This deep "water bomb" style washing pulled in all wavering short-term positions, significantly increasing market positions and chip concentration. With a solid base established, the violent rise in stock prices and the aggressive push towards the Hong Kong Stock Connect have become natural outcomes of the chip structure optimization. Having a leading edge in airports and industrial areas, the delivery model restricts valuation Having clarified that UISEE TECH's current rapid rise is driven by supply-demand imbalances resulting from the dominance of "scarce chips", a critical question arises: whether this premium generated by the chip structure has a solid fundamental basis as a "valuation anchor"? After all, in a thin market with extreme liquidity scarcity, price discovery mechanisms often distort, making it difficult for markets to determine a fair intrinsic value for companies. As a provider of L4 level autonomous driving solutions focused on the Greater China region, UISEE TECH has established a leading advantage in its niche market. By 2025 revenue calculation, UISEE TECH leads as the provider of L4 level autonomous driving solutions for commercial vehicles in airport and industrial area scenarios in the Greater China region, with market shares of 90.5% and 31.7%, respectively. The company nearly monopolizes the airport scenario, laying a strong defensive business foundation. Leveraging the operational data and brand momentum accumulated in airports and industrial areas, the company is swiftly expanding into urban services, ports, and other incremental scenarios, and its diversification strategy is starting to bear fruit. According to the business model of "vehicle solutions + leasing" in 2025, revenue from airports, industrial areas, cities, others, and ports accounts for 38.9%, 21.4%, 32.2%, and 7.5%, respectively. This structural change indicates that the company is gradually reducing its dependence on a single scenario and opening up growth opportunities by reusing technology across scenarios, enhancing its risk resilience and intrinsic value. Based on this strong business foundation, UISEE TECH has demonstrated a high-quality, scalable expansion momentum. The company's revenue scale has risen rapidly from 1.61 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.28 billion yuan in 2025, with a high compounded annual growth rate of 42.7%. At the same time, the gross profit margin has been optimized to an industry-leading level of 51.1%, validating its successful replication ability in airport scenarios and reflecting strong blood-making potential as it expands into industrial logistics and urban services. This "high growth + high margin" financial performance provides a strong support for its fundamental structure. In addition, UISEE TECH's successful implementation of the integrated smart driving system with Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock's collaboration for overseas right-hand drive models signals its penetration of the passenger car global supply chain and possible reconstruction of the company's valuation logic from "leading in specific scenarios" to "platform-type intelligent driving supplier." However, UISEE TECH's flaws are also quite evident. Firstly, the company has not yet achieved profitability and is currently in significant losses. From 2023 to 2025, UISEE TECH's adjusted net losses were 181 million, 161 million, and 169 million yuan, totaling losses of 511 million yuan over three years. During the same period, R&D expenditures were 184 million, 196 million, and 234 million yuan, accounting for extremely high percentages of total revenue at 114.3%, 74%, and 71.2%, respectively, making it a major factor affecting profit release and indicating that UISEE TECH is still in the early stages of high-growth commercialization driven by high R&D. Secondly, UISEE TECH's earnings are from book income, and the accounts receivable cycle is long. From 2023 to 2025, UISEE TECH's trade receivables and notes receivables were 140 million, 243 million, and 316 million yuan, rapidly increasing, with accounts receivable reaching nearly 96% of total revenue in 2025, and the turnover days extending to 310.8 days, resulting in continuous negative operating cash flow, with a net outflow of about 174 million yuan in 2025. Additionally, the company had approximately 113 million yuan in cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2025, indicating a tight cash flow situation requiring external funding. Furthermore, the company's high valuation may be UISEE TECH's biggest risk currently. Among autonomous driving companies listed on the Hong Kong stock market, the "Robotaxi narrative" type of companies can have a PS valuation as high as 20-30 times, while the PS valuation for closed/semi-closed commercial vehicle autonomous driving companies is around 6-11 times, indicating a significant difference. The key reason for this valuation gap is that the market prices these two types of companies based on completely different pricing anchors: Robotaxi narrative type companies have the potential for large-scale replication, diminishing marginal driver costs, and the ability to expand rapidly even with a single city run, so the market values it as an end-game option, willing to pay for long-term TAM and platform operational flexibility even as they continue to incur losses. On the other hand, the commercial nature of closed/semi-closed endpoints is clearly different; while high verification barriers are an advantage, this model tends to be project-based, with revenue fluctuating with orders and delivery milestones, and recurring revenue makes up a smaller proportion, making it harder to unleash economies of scale on its own. Consequently, the PS valuation can only return to the benchmark of a delivery-based automation solution provider, and the premium is significantly limited by growth ceilings and cash flow. Admittedly, UISEE TECH's coverage scenarios are no longer limited to closed/semi-closed scenarios. By 2025, revenue from open scenarios accounts for over 10%, and the collaboration with Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock has opened up the global automotive supply chain, allowing it to enjoy a certain valuation premium. However, the company's revenue is currently dominated by project deliveries, hence a PS valuation of 8-15 times is more reasonable relative to its current position. However, as of June 12, UISEE TECH's market value had exceeded 15 billion Hong Kong dollars intraday. If optimistically estimated that its revenue will continue to grow by over 20% in 2026, then the current market value corresponds to a PS valuation of 33 times in 2026, reaching the high valuation levels of "Robotaxi narrative" type companies, which clearly does not align with UISEE TECH's business model. If UISEE TECH does not optimize its revenue structure in the following period, evolving from "selling cars for delivery" to "operations/subscription/ongoing service streams," the current overvalued situation may lack fundamental support, inevitably leading to a path of price regression.