The Hormuz Strait may be about to reopen! It is rumored that the US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement, with the earliest possibility of signing this weekend.

According to multiple senior officials from the Group of Seven (G7) and diplomatic channels, the United States and Iran are on the verge of signing a groundbreaking agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. With news of the reopening of this crucial global "oil chokepoint," the stagnation that has loomed over the international capital market for months quickly dissipated, leading to a sharp drop in international oil prices and a strong rebound in global stock markets. As the eve of the vian Summit approaches, a breakthrough in Geneva: a 60-day ceasefire memorandum is on the horizon The timing of this diplomatic breakthrough is extremely sensitive. The 2026 G7 Leaders Summit is scheduled to take place in the small town of vian in the French Alps from June 15th to 17th. Several sources have confirmed that Geneva, which is just around the corner, has been secretly designated as a potential location to sign the US-Iran agreement, with the signing ceremony possibly taking place as early as Sunday, June 14th. An anonymous G7 senior official stated, "From the current trajectory of the negotiations, there is a high likelihood of both sides reaching an agreement. However, considering the extreme sensitivity of geopolitics, it is more likely to be initially signed as a 'Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)' rather than a definitive peace treaty." In a public statement late on Thursday, President Trump completely confirmed the market's optimistic expectations. Trump announced that he had urgently cancelled a new round of airstrikes against Iran that were set to take place and emphasized that a historic agreement is "almost at hand." According to the core negotiation framework that has been leaked, the agreement mainly includes the following three major political measures: a comprehensive ceasefire between the US and Iran, with both parties officially extending the existing ceasefire agreement by 60 days; the full reopening of the strait, with Tehran committing to lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and allowing free passage for international commercial and oil vessels; and the lifting of port blockades, as a reciprocal measure, Washington will end the severe military and economic blockade imposed on Iran's major ports since February. Complex diplomatic maneuvers and the final suspense: the "ultimate authority" of the supreme leaders Despite the imminent dawn of peace, seasoned Wall Street macro hedge fund managers maintain a sober rationality. Several diplomatic communication officials have warned that given the extremely slow and inefficient communication mechanisms between the US and Iran since the outbreak of hostilities in February, the final mile in diplomatic history is often fraught with variables. In a recent routine press conference, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman displayed highly diplomatic language: "We have not reached a final conclusion on this matter." However, he also hinted that there has been "substantial progress" towards ending the conflict that has brought chaos to the Middle East and led to a surge in global energy prices. The key uncertainty facing the agreement at present is whether the draft has received the final approval of Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. As the ultimate decision-maker on major diplomatic and military matters concerning Iran, Khamenei has been in seclusion since the end of February when the US and Israel launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iran, triggering a full-scale war in the Middle East. If the signing ceremony in Geneva does not go ahead as scheduled on Sunday, it may indicate significant strategic differences within Iran over the cost of the 60-day ceasefire agreement. Global markets welcome a "long-awaited rain": energy prices plummet, risk assets rally Previously, the indefinite blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for nearly 30% of global seaborne oil trade, directly led to a surge in international energy and commodity prices in May, pushing the long-term government bond yields of some developed economies to 20-year highs. Therefore, today's expectation of the strait reopening is like a timely rain of liquidity for the global financial markets. The most direct reaction in the market has been the sharp drop in oil prices. As of writing, WTI crude oil prices have fallen by over 4%, dropping below $84 per barrel, hitting an eight-week low; Brent crude oil prices have dropped by over 3%, falling below $87.36 per barrel, reaching the lowest level since early March. Stock market reactions have shown a broad rebound trend, with US stock index futures rising by about 0.5%; Asian stock markets closing higher, with the Kospi index in South Korea rising by 4.6% and the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rising by 2.8%. With the G7 Summit set to open in vian this Sunday, whether the US-Iran agreement will be signed in Geneva or not, a global diplomatic game concerning the future of the Middle East conflict is intensifying. According to G7 officials, France has invited Middle Eastern countries directly impacted by the conflict, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, as well as Egypt, which plays a critical role in mediation, to participate in the summit. Trump clearly hopes to appear with a "historic peace agreement" in the spotlight of the G7 Summit. For global investors, the months-long energy supply panic may have come to an end, and the dawn of reduced inflation is beginning to show. The market is transitioning from pricing based on "geopolitical premiums" to "economic fundamentals." In the days ahead, whether the agreement will be finalized, whether Khamenei will approve it at the last minute, and whether Israel will exert pressure on potentially "lenient" terms will be the last hurdles to determine whether oil prices will continue to seek a new equilibrium range downwards, and whether global stock markets can sustain this current rebound trend.