Caitong: Glass packaging industry chain mass production on the eve, glass companies welcome new life.

Caitong's research report stated that although glass encapsulation substrates are still in the early stages of application, growth paths such as AI chips, CPO, and 6G are expected to bring vast growth opportunities. Special glass, as one of the core raw materials for glass substrates, has high technological barriers, high value volume, and potential high profit margins. The price per square meter is high, and it is expected to maintain a high level after maturity. Currently, although overseas leading companies have a certain first-mover advantage, domestic companies have made rapid progress in research and development, and are expected to build advantages on the cost side. In the future, during the industry's volume growth process, the industry expects domestic leading glass companies to achieve a second growth curve. Caitong's main points are as follows: On the eve of mass production of glass substrates, glass companies are experiencing a rebirth With the rapid development of technologies such as AI GPU, High-Performance Computing (HPC), Chiplets, HBM, and CPO, advanced packaging is evolving towards large size, high bandwidth, low power consumption. Traditional ABF organic carriers are approaching physical limits in terms of thermal expansion coefficient, warp control, and wiring density, while silicon interposers face issues such as high cost and size limitations. Glass substrates, with low thermal expansion coefficient, high planarity, low dielectric loss, and large size manufacturing capabilities, are seen as the important technological route for the next generation of advanced packaging. Currently, leading manufacturers such as Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and others are increasing their investments, and the industry has gradually moved from the technology verification stage to the mid-trial verification and capacity building stage, with preliminary mass production expected to occur around 2027-2028. Accelerated localization of upstream production, concentration of midstream barriers, and downstream AI-driven volume growth The glass substrate industry chain exhibits characteristics of "high barriers in upstream materials and equipment, complex manufacturing processes in the midstream, and demand-driven advanced packaging in the downstream." Special glass raw materials are the core foundational materials in the industry chain, and the high-end market is currently dominated by overseas manufacturers. Domestic manufacturers are actively promoting customer validation and production layout, with domestic enterprises expected to gradually occupy the market with cost advantages; TGV processing equipment is the core equipment link in glass substrate manufacturing, directly determining product yield and the subsequent electroplating filling effect, and is expected to become one of the first directions to realize performance as industrialization progresses; in the midstream manufacturing, China is mainly represented by BOE and WG Tech (JiangXi) Group, while overseas companies such as Intel and Samsung have advanced in mechanical and electrical layout, leading to rapid industrialization progress. In terms of demand, the industry forecasts that the glass substrate market size is expected to continue growing from 2026-2030, with AI advanced packaging being the main demand driver determining the market capacity, while CPO communication and other special applications are also expected to drive growth, collectively pushing the industry into a phase of rapid development. Risk warning: risks of commercialization progress falling short of expectations, equipment and yield bottleneck risks, fluctuations in downstream AI demand and risks of excess capacity.