HK Stock Market Move | YOURAN DAIRY (09858) rises more than 8% Meat cattle cycle clearly on the rise, raw milk supply and demand expected to gradually balance

YOURAN DAIRY (09858) rose more than 8%, as of the time of publication, it rose 7.87% to HKD 3.29, with a trading volume of HKD 153 million. On the news front, Donghai Securities recently pointed out that as of June 5, the price of culling cows was RMB 22.75/kg, up 17.9% year-on-year and flat month-on-month, while the price of beef was RMB 66.76/kg, up 3.6% year-on-year and flat month-on-month, indicating a clear upward trend in the beef cattle cycle. According to Holstein data, the outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Type 1 in South Africa has led to disruption of some raw milk flow and reduced production in some pastures after vaccination, causing a rise in raw milk prices nationwide in the first week of May. With the increasing consumer health consciousness, there is room for growth in low-temperature dairy products and deep processing products. Pasture capacity continues to shrink, and the supply and demand of raw milk are expected to gradually balance by 2026, waiting for the turning point in the cycle. Open Source Securities believes that the company's diversified layout is showing results, with the beef cattle business growing rapidly and opening up long-term growth space. While deepening its main business of dairy cow farming, the beef cattle business has become a core increment, with beef cattle feed sales expected to grow rapidly by 2026, and the company's self-owned beef cattle farming is expected to increase rapidly. With a resource of over 300,000 breeding cows, sufficient breeding capacity reserves, and shared equipment for beef and dairy cattle feed, no additional large investment is needed. In the future, a dual-drive pattern of dairy and beef cattle is expected to be formed, effectively hedging against fluctuations in a single business cycle, with strong long-term growth momentum.