New stock outlook Qunze Technology: IC carrier board leader traps AI computing power, performance V reversal and aggressive dividend distribution hidden worries.

When a company holds the "ticket" to the AI computing power era, but distributes cash equivalent to more than three years of net profit to existing shareholders on the eve of its IPO, how should investors price it? On June 8, 2026, Suzhou Qunze Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Qunze Technology") officially submitted its application for listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC SEC as the exclusive sponsor. This company, with the halo of "the leading mainland IC substrate manufacturer", entered the spotlight of the Hong Kong stock market with a financial report that was a mix of joy and worry. So, is Qunze Technology really a "core asset of AI computing power" worth holding for the long term, or a "financial game" that needs to be treated cautiously? Obvious lead effect vs. "inverted V" dilemma Founded in 2005, Qunze Technology is China's leading advanced IC substrate supplier. IC substrates are the crucial intermediaries connecting semiconductor chips with PCB, performing core functions such as electrical interconnection, physical fixation, mechanical support, and heat dissipation, widely used in AI servers, high-speed computing, data centers, smart devices, automotive electronics, and industrial control fields. The company's core competitive advantage lies in market positioning. According to data from Frost Sullivan, in terms of revenue, Qunze Technology was the largest IC substrate company in the FCBGA substrate market and the FCCSP substrate market in mainland China in 2025, with market shares of 25.3% and 13.4% respectively; in terms of revenue, the company was also the second largest IC substrate company in mainland China in 2025, with a market share of 12.5%. This market position was not achieved out of thin air. Qunze Technology's parent company, Xinxing Electronics from Taiwan, entered the IC substrate market in 1997 and has been ranked first in the world in terms of revenue for several consecutive years, injecting deep technical expertise and customer resources into the company. In 2025, Xinxing Electronics achieved a consolidated revenue of NT$131.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.75%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of NT$6.673 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.31%. With strong growth momentum, Xinxing Electronics provided powerful support for Qunze Technology. However, while Qunze Technology has a significant lead effect, it is currently constrained by the dual "stranglehold" of costs and cycles, with its financial data displaying an obvious "inverted V" trend. According to the prospectus, in the 2023 fiscal year, 2024 fiscal year, and 2025 fiscal year, the company's operating income was RMB 2.794 billion, RMB 3.659 billion, and RMB 3.603 billion respectively. In 2025, revenue decreased by 1.54% year-on-year, indicating an initial growth bottleneck. Among them, FCBGA substrates, as the company's core source of income, had revenues of RMB 1.471 billion, RMB 1.981 billion, and RMB 1.954 billion respectively during the reporting period, with corresponding sales volumes of 14.944 million units, 14.839 million units, and 17.215 million units, and average selling prices of RMB 98.41, RMB 133.49, and RMB 113.5 per unit respectively. While sales volumes increased significantly in 2025, the average selling price decreased from RMB 133.49 in 2024 to RMB 113.5, reflecting a trend towards an increase in low-margin orders. On the profit side, the "inverted V" trend is also evident. During the reporting period, the company's annual net profits were RMB 686 million, RMB 924 million, and RMB 647 million, with gross profit margins of 33%, 38.4%, and 31.2% respectively. In 2025, annual net profit plummeted by 30.01% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin also decreased by 7.2 percentage points. Through the prospectus, it can be seen that the decline in profits at Qunze Technology is mainly due to multiple factors: on one hand, the adjustment of the order structure of major customers has increased the proportion of low-margin orders; on the other hand, the upward trend in raw material prices, such as gold, has not been timely passed on downstream; finally, research and development expenses increased from RMB 126 million in the 2023 fiscal year to RMB 240 million in the 2025 fiscal year, with a compound annual growth rate of 38%, which, although beneficial for long-term competitiveness, has clearly added to the expenditure burden in the short term. Among these factors, perhaps the most intriguing part in the prospectus is the large dividend payout by Qunze Technology before its IPO. According to the prospectus, the company declared dividends to shareholders totaling zero yuan, RMB 190 million, and RMB 2.8 billion in the 2023 fiscal year, 2024 fiscal year, and 2025 fiscal year respectively, with a total dividend payout of RMB 2.99 billion over three years, exceeding the total net profit of RMB 2.256 billion for the same period. The large dividend payout has directly impacted the financial situation of Qunze Technology. At the end of 2023 and 2024, the company's net value of current assets was RMB 3.787 billion and RMB 2.113 billion respectively. By the end of 2025, the net value of current assets turned negative, recording a net current liability of RMB 447 million. The company explained that the main reasons for this included an increase in other accounts payable and accrual expenses of RMB 1.683 billion, a decrease in cash and cash equivalents of RMB 652 million, and an increase in bank loans of RMB 380 million. It can be seen that, despite relying on the technical expertise of Xinxing Electronics, Qunze Technology, with a market share of 25.3% in the mainland FCBGA substrate market, is currently trapped in an obvious "inverted V" dilemma: profits plummeted by 30% in 2025, the company is under continued pressure from low-margin orders and high R&D investments. What is more worrisome is that the company's dividend of RMB 29.9 billion over three years far exceeds its net profit, such aggressive dividend tactics have significantly weakened the company's liquidity, resulting in a net current liability of RMB 447 million at the end of 2025, which is perhaps the most glaring card in the "inverted V" trend. The IC substrate market reaching a trillion yuan accelerates, but the risks of competition and customer concentration are still evident As the "bridge" connecting chips and PCBs, the market for IC substrates is rapidly expanding with the explosion of AI computing power and the popularity of advanced packaging technology. According to the prospectus data, driven by the rapid improvement of AI computing power, the widespread application of advanced packaging technology, and the demand from major end-use markets, the global IC substrate market is growing rapidly. From 2026 to 2030, the global IC substrate market is expected to increase from RMB 127.1 billion to RMB 198.8 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.8%. China is one of the main demand markets for IC substrates in the world, with market growth rates higher than the global average. Under the push for a controllable supply chain and the localization trend of the industry, the pace of domestic substitution is accelerating. From 2026 to 2030, the market size in mainland China is expected to increase from RMB 33.3 billion to RMB 59.6 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.7%. In terms of IC substrate types, the market size of FCBGA substrates is expected to increase from RMB 7.7 billion in 2025 to RMB 23.9 billion in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.4%, becoming a key growth driver for the overall IC substrate market. The market size of FCCSP substrates is expected to increase from RMB 9.1 billion in 2025 to RMB 18.8 billion in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.9%. The market size of CSP substrates is also expected to increase from RMB 7.4 billion in 2025 to RMB 11.5 billion in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.4%. However, industry prosperity does not necessarily translate to high returns for individual entities. In the FCBGA sector where Qunze Technology operates, competitors are rapidly catching up. Shennan Circuits, as the leading domestic substrate manufacturer, has a new FCBGA factory in Guangzhou with the capacity for mass production of products with 20 layers and below, successfully entering the supply chain of international flagship CPUs such as AMD and Intel and achieving mass shipments. Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech's FCBGA substrate project has entered the small-batch production phase, with a continuous increase in customer verification quantities and a steady improvement in yield rates, successfully entering the supply chain of major factories in North America in the areas of PCB samples and semiconductor test boards. The capacity ramp-up and customer introduction progress of these competitors will pose a substantial challenge to Qunze Technology's market position in the medium to long term. From a technological barrier perspective, the global IC substrate industry has long been characterized by a highly concentrated "pyramid" structure, with the top ten companies in the market holding a combined market share of over 80%, and the top seven companies in the ABF substrate segment holding a market share of over 90%, dominating predominantly by Japanese, South Korean, and Taiwanese companies. Qunze Technology, with the resources of its parent company, has a first-mover advantage in the mainland Chinese market, but as domestic competitors rapidly improve their technological capabilities, the sustainability of this "first-mover advantage" is a variable that needs close attention. In addition, Qunze Technology also faces significant risks from high customer concentration. During the reporting period, the revenue from the company's top five customers remained at a level of 74%-84%, with a single largest customer accounting for over 30%, deeply binding performance to a few core customers. If key major customers switch to other substrate manufacturers, a direct reduction in orders from a single customer would impact revenue by up to 30%. Based on the above, it can be seen that the global IC substrate market is experiencing a growth surge driven by AI computing power and advanced packaging, with the FCBGA segment experiencing particularly rapid growth. Qunze Technology, with the advantage of its parent company's resources, has a first-mover advantage in the domestic market. However, amidst risks such as dependency on major customers, intensifying competition, the sustainability of its first-mover advantage remains in question. Conclusion In conclusion, it is evident that Qunze Technology is a company with a high level of fundamental "golden content" - the certainty of growth in AI hardware demand provides a solid foundation for its growth, while its leading position in the mainland Chinese IC substrate market gives it irreplaceable scarcity value. However, the company's aggressive dividend payout before its IPO, which led to a significant deterioration of its financial situation, and the resulting liquidity risk, cast a shadow over the sustainability of its future capacity expansion. Optimists can bet on its industry positioning advantages, the certainty of capacity expansion, and the medium to long-term logic of the explosion in AI computing demand, and see its value as a scarce leading asset worth investing in; on the other hand, cautious investors need to address structural constraints such as high customer concentration, high profit volatility, and emerging liquidity risk.