Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696) Australian mine fire may bring positive speculation opportunities to the lithium mining sector? (Attached Concept stocks)

Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696) issued a sudden announcement on the evening of June 10th. The company received a report from its subsidiary Talison Lithium Pty Ltd (referred to as "Talison") on the afternoon of June 9th, stating that a partial fire broke out during maintenance at the third-phase chemical-grade lithium concentrate plant in Australia (referred to as the "Talison Phase III Project"). The fire in the relevant area has been promptly extinguished, all on-site personnel have been safely evacuated, and no injuries have been reported. Some individual equipment at the factory was damaged, but the main equipment and production lines were not affected. As a subsidiary of Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Talison owns the mining rights for the Greenbushes Lithium Mine, which has the largest reserves and highest grade of solid lithium spodumene in production in the world. According to Wood Mackenzie data for the fourth quarter of 2025, the Greenbushes spodumene mine operated by Talison is the largest hard rock lithium mine project in the world in 2025, accounting for 9.3% of the total global lithium resource project production in 2025. "The sudden fire at the Talison Phase III Project, combined with the news that the land procedures for the Jiaxiawu Lithium Mine in the afternoon may cause delays to the project, may bring positive news to the lithium mining sector." said a knowledgeable industry insider. Currently, the most discussed topic in the market is the rapid growth of lithium salt supply, which may see a reversal in the near future. Recently, influenced by rumors in the lithium mining supply growth market, lithium carbonate prices surged and then fell back, with the average price dropping from 200,000 yuan per ton to 160,000 yuan per ton. In fact, ignoring market sentiment and future expectations, from the perspective of current spot supply, downstream procurement, inventory changes, and other industry data, the current domestic lithium carbonate market supply and demand balance has not changed. Domestically, policies and market constraints have further suppressed domestic lithium mining supply. The overseas market is also showing a tight situation, such as Zimbabwe, the largest lithium mine production country in the world, accounting for over 10% of global production, and being the largest import source domestically. Due to the export ban periods, there is high uncertainty in the supply. From the supply side, domestic lithium salt production capacity is steadily releasing, but the increment is limited. According to statistics from some institutions, the total production of domestic lithium carbonate from January to May this year was 510,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.36%, and the pace of production capacity release is relatively stable. Jiangxi Yichun, as a core lithium salt production area, has been in a period of production suspension and license renewal since May 1st for its four main lithium mines, and it is difficult to rapidly supplement the production capacity of lithium carbonate in the short term. "At present, the demand side of the market is relatively certain, with the main disturbances concentrating on the supply side," said a futures trader. Based on statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, despite the impact of the reduction in tax incentives for electric vehicles in 2026, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles in the first four months of this year were lower than expected, but the energy storage capacity per vehicle for new energy vehicles has increased significantly, with an increase of 26.3% compared to the average value of 2025. The annual growth rate of power battery consumption is still expected to be relatively optimistic under the high base of last year, and the main disturbance may come from capital speculation under the supply disruption. Regarding inventory, according to a research report from Guotai Junan Futures on June 8th, the large sample inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,240 tons to 134,403 tons on a weekly basis. The report believes that the week is still maintaining a destocking status, with a significant decrease in the week-on-week delivery of overseas lithium salts, which is expected to ease the supply pressure from the subsequent import side. On the demand side, downstream production remains strong, with demand continuing to rise. According to data from SMM, China's total production of energy storage battery cells from January to May was 34.136 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 104.78%; the total scale of energy storage projects awarded in the first four months of this year increased by 115.49% year-on-year. According to Xinlu Lithium Battery's forecast, in June, six domestic battery sample companies will produce 175.7 GWh, an increase of 68% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations. BOC International stated that with the peak season for demand approaching, it is optimistic about the rapid growth of global new energy vehicle sales in 2026, which will drive the growth of battery and material demand. In terms of power batteries, the peak season for lithium batteries is coming, which is expected to drive the signing of enterprise orders and profit recovery. Related concept stocks: Ganfeng Lithium Group (01772): The company's first-quarter revenue was 9.196 billion yuan, an increase of 143.81% compared to the same period last year. The net cash flow from operating activities was 787 million yuan, demonstrating a strong cash flow situation. In terms of shareholder information, among the top ten shareholders, HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED holds a 23.04% stake, and Li Liangbin holds an 18.06% stake. Institutions estimate that the company's own equity resources could reach 130,000 to 150,000 tons in 26 years, with a production capacity of 75,000 tons LCE after the Marion technology upgrade; the Cauchari-Olaroz salt flat is expected to produce 34,100 tons in 25 years and has aims to reach 35,000 to 40,000 tons in 26 years. Additionally, there are plans to build a second phase with a capacity of 45,000 tons; institutions estimate a production capacity of 17,000 tons for Marion, 15,000 tons for Yiliping, and a production of 337,000 tons of concentrate for Goulamina in 25 years, with a total capacity of 506,000 tons built, and expected to be fully operational in 26 years. In addition, institutions predict that by 27 years, the company's own equity resources could reach 150,000 to 160,000 tons. Based on a lithium carbonate price of 150,000 yuan per ton in 26 years, the corresponding resource-side profit contribution is estimated to be around 9 billion yuan. Jiangsu Lopal Tech. Group (02465): The company has successfully acquired exploration rights for the Marble Bar lithium project in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Through a strategic investment in the Australian listed company GL1 (holding about 5% of the shares), Jiangsu Lopal Tech. Group has secured a stable supply of the flagship Manna lithium project for the next ten years. Starting from June 2028, the company will underwrite 40% of the annual output of the project for 10 years, guaranteeing a supply of no less than 70,000 tons of spodumene concentrate. CNGR Advanced Material (02579): CNGR Advanced Material has laid out lithium mining resources in Argentina, with lithium resources equivalent to more than 10 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). The company has two major salt flats in Argentina, Jama and Solaroz, located in the core area of the South American "Lithium Triangle." According to the plan, production is expected to start gradually from 2028. In the long term, these lithium resources will be integrated into the company's global industrial chain to support its integrated development of "resourcessmeltingmaterialsrecycling."