CICC: Tesla's FSD Global Expansion may accelerate the increase in global penetration of intelligent driving.

China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) global expansion is accelerating, and it is expected to accelerate the penetration rate of global autonomous driving. At the same time, Tesla's advancement in high-level autonomous driving and Robotaxi services is bringing a "shark effect," further increasing consumer acceptance of intelligent driving, thereby driving the industry into a period of rapid growth. CICC's main points are as follows: FSD software and hardware upgrades, leading the world in autonomous driving capabilities. In terms of algorithms, the latest FSDv14 version has increased its parameter volume by ten times compared to before, introducing innovative algorithm architectures in various aspects such as multi-modal end-to-end, real-time reasoning and reinforcement learning, and MLIR compiler. Tesla has also introduced robotaxi service based on FSDv14. The report believes that Tesla's self-developed full-stack and end-to-end multi-modal architecture lay the foundation for Tesla's leading advantage in FSD, and domestic car companies and third-party algorithm suppliers are accelerating the optimization of autonomous driving experience. Global expansion of the map, increase in FSD subscription rate bringing new business models. The FSD's international expansion map covers 10 countries, and for the Chinese market, Tesla has made sufficient preparations in data compliance, self-built computing centers, and deep collaboration with domestic mapping companies to obtain qualifications. Thanks to the improvement in FSDv14 experience, FSD driving mileage and subscription rates have achieved rapid growth. The report believes that as FSD enters multiple markets globally and gradually transitions to a subscription model, this will drive a business model of charging for autonomous driving software and further increase the global penetration rate of autonomous driving. Waymo running a commercial closed loop, Tesla's gradual path from L2 to L4 may open up a new paradigm for the industry. As of May 2026, Waymo has deployed over 3,000 robotaxis in the United States, with a market share exceeding 25% in the operating area of San Francisco. In addition, Waymo has chosen to collaborate with Uber in Austin, leveraging Uber's traffic base and mixed dispatching capabilities to quickly improve operational efficiency. The report predicts that the three-party collaboration model may provide an effective path for algorithm companies to accelerate the speed of deployment. Unlike Waymo's high-definition map + LiDAR mode, Tesla adopts a light map mode, sticking to the gradual technological path from L2 to L4, and benefiting from lower vehicle costs due to self-built capacity and a competitive edge without LiDAR configuration. The report predicts that this may lead to the industry opening up a new paradigm for development. Risk Warning: Slowdown in the global expansion pace of FSD, regulations not meeting expectations, slower-than-expected expansion of Robotaxi services, and slower-than-expected development of autonomous driving technology.