Guotai Haitong: The metal industry welcomes the main upward trend after adjustment, with multiple points blooming to interpret independent logic.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that it maintains the "shock wave upward" trend in the metal industry, with multiple points blooming to interpret independent logic. This round of trend is significantly different from historical cycles, as the industry's pricing core is shifting from traditional real estate and infrastructure demand driving to a comprehensive transformation towards "new energy H+AI" structural demand reshaping and the resonance of supply-side rigidity constraints. The five major metal sectors each have their independent industry logic, presenting a structural feature of "multiple points blooming," with the view that the sector as a whole will maintain a shock wave upward trend after short-term adjustments. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: Precious Metals: Inflation narrative suppression, long-term trend unchanged Under the backdrop of high oil prices, the inflation narrative suppresses the short-term prices of precious metals, but the long-term upward trend in precious metal prices remains unchanged. The valuation of the gold sector is still relatively low, and the view is that buying on dips presents a good opportunity for positioning. Industrial Metals: Resilience of supply and demand intertwined with macro disturbances The cycle span of industrial metals may exceed market expectations. Demand side is undergoing structural changes due to the development of new energy and AI (grid transformation, data centers); supply side faces rigid constraints such as declining mineral product prices, increasing geopolitical risks, and insufficient capital expenditure. Copper: The disruption caused by the floods in the Congo, combined with strong demand from new energy and the grid, is expected to exceed a supply-demand gap of over 200,000 tons this year, with a clear tight balance situation. Aluminum: Supply chain concerns triggered by Middle East geopolitical conflicts are the core driver of recent price increases, and the current sector valuation is relatively low, with high dividend yield asset attributes. Strategic Metals: The beginning of a rigid era, highlighting resource scarcity Rare earths: This round of trend has completely departed from the logic of demand penetration driving, and has turned into a pure supply-driven trend. Domestic rare earth quotas are growing significantly slower, combined with the normalization of gray production and the implementation of white list systems, the industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to refined control. Profitability in the industry chain is expected to shift towards midstream refining and separation, with a significant increase in concentration. Natural uranium: As a strategic resource with extremely rigid supply, the significant growth in nuclear power demand driven by AI will significantly widen the gap, with a bullish long-term outlook on price increases. Nickel: Short-term supply disruptions, driven by AI-driven demand for nickel capacitors, with an upward trend in prices for both nickel and nickel processed products. Energy Metals: Supply disruptions in a tight balance The supply of lithium carbonate is strong on the fundamental side, with continuous destocking, combined with policy disruptions such as the exchange of certificates in Jiangxi and the ban on exports in Zimbabwe, there are substantial structural arbitrage opportunities within the year. Steel: Profit improvement gradually, focus on bottom layout opportunities The industry bottom has clearly appeared, and the upward elasticity and space mainly depend on substantial intervention by policies on industry consolidation and capacity clearance. Risk warning Unexpected fluctuations in macro demand, and a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, among others.