Guotai Haitong: The value of metal leaders in the configuration is highlighted, and the long-term outlook for rare earth investment value is promising.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the long-term logic of precious metals remains solid, and short-term fluctuations will become a good opportunity for positioning. As the semiconductor recovery and AI expansion gradually materialize, there is still room for valuation recovery in the copper sector. Pay attention to the improvement in macro sentiment and the profit revision of companies due to the upward pressure on tin prices caused by supply disruptions. The value of strategic metals is highlighted. In the medium to long term, the bank continues to be optimistic about the investment value of rare earths as key strategic resources. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: Precious metals: Inflation has eased, Fed Chairman emphasizes independence The overall trend of the US-Iran conflict is easing. Against the backdrop of high oil prices, the increase in US core CPI data was lower than expected, temporarily delaying the inflation narrative. The new Fed chairman emphasized the independence of the Fed. Given concerns about inflation, the market expects a delay in rate cuts by the Fed. The long-term logic of precious metals remains solid, and short-term fluctuations will become a good opportunity for positioning. Recommendations: Shanjin International Gold, Zhongjin Gold Corp., Ltd, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. Related targets: Shandong Gold Mining, ZHAOJIN MINING, Shengda Resources. Copper: US-Iran easing releases pressure on copper prices, room for recovery in copper stocks Real US interest rates continue to decline, macroeconomic factors relieve pressure on copper prices; however, weak demand due to high copper prices and seasonal factors, expectations of supply disruptions are weakening marginally, copper prices are mainly fluctuating at high levels, and attention should be paid to the impact of US tariffs. Most stocks in the sector have not followed the recovery in copper prices to previous highs, and there is still room for upside as macro winds improve and copper prices continue to rise. Recommended targets: JCHX Mining Management, Zijin Mining Group. Aluminium: High growth in aluminium exports boosts demand, slow destocking of electrolytic aluminium. Inflation expectations remain, Fed monetary policy remains cautious, short-term price fluctuations for aluminium. On the demand side, customs data shows that aluminium exports in April reached 535,700 tons, up 20.9% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year, with exports becoming the core support for current aluminium demand. Leading aluminium processing companies' operating rates dropped slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 64.1%. On the inventory side, SMM statistics show that domestic social inventories of electrolytic aluminium totaled 1.401 million tons, down 11,000 tons month-on-month, with a steady destocking trend established. Recommended: Yunnan Aluminium, Tianshan Aluminum Group, Henan Shenhuo Coal & Power; Related targets: Aluminum Corporation Of China, CHINAHONGQIAO, CHUANGXIN IND. Tin: Supply disruptions support tin prices, AI and semiconductor recovery drive reassessment of tin stocks. The Congo (Kinshasa) epidemic may affect mineral supply, while production in Myanmar is lagging behind, resulting in a tight supply, but high prices are suppressing purchases by solder and electronics companies, with short-term fluctuations in tin prices. As the semiconductor recovery and AI expansion gradually materialize, there is still room for valuation recovery in the sector, focusing on the improvement in macro sentiment and the strengthening of supply disruptions that bring about profit revisions for companies in the upward movement of tin prices. Recommended targets: Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal, Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd., Inner Mongolia Xingye Silver & Tin Mining; Related targets: Sichuan Xinjinlu Group. Energy metals: Demand expectations disrupt prices, supply narrative fluctuates Lithium carbonate: Last week, lithium carbonate production continued to decline, with disruptions in supply occurring in Zimbabwe and lithium carbonate inventories continuing to destock. On the supply side, new regulations are affecting prospects for resumption of production, and the supply-demand situation remains tight. Recommended: Chengxin Lithium Group, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group, Zangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium Group, Tianqi Lithium Corporation. Related targets: Xizang Mineral Development. Nickel: Indonesia tightened nickel ore quotas, redefined nickel price formula, and nickel supply gradually moved from surplus to balance, combined with strong sulphur prices, the bank expects the center of nickel prices to gradually move up. Recommended Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt. Related targets: GEM Co., Ltd. Rare earths: Rare earth prices show a weak and fluctuating trend Last week, the overall market trading was relatively quiet, and rare earth prices showed a weak and fluctuating trend. Looking ahead, the bank continues to be optimistic about the investment value of rare earths as key strategic resources, and recommends leading rare earth targets: China Rare Earth Nonferrous Metals, JL MAG Rare-Earth. Strategic metals: Value highlighted Tungsten: The supply and demand pattern of tungsten is marginally improving, and a recovery trend in the tungsten sector is expected. Recent slowdown in mine shipments, while APT inventory is destocking, capacity utilization is declining, and downstream stocking demand is recovering, the supply and demand side is marginally improving, and tungsten prices are rebounding. Some targets are leading the way in early recovery with strong alpha, and if supply tightens in the third quarter, demand improves in the peak season, and strategic attributes are strengthened in resonance, there is the potential for both price recovery and valuation enhancement. It is recommended to continue focusing on targets with a high proportion of own mines in overseas or domestic resource sectors. Recommended targets: Xiamen Tungsten, China Tungsten and Hightech Materials, related targets: Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten, JIAXIN INTL RES. Uranium: The April long-term contract price for natural uranium is $91.5 per pound, unchanged from March, and the rigidity of supply and nuclear power development bring a long-term supply-demand gap in uranium, with uranium prices expected to continue to rise. Recommended targets: China National Uranium; Related targets: CGN MINING. Tantalum: Tantalum prices rebound after a high-level correction. Geopolitical fluctuations and supply disruptions have led to a gradual return to rationality in tantalum ore prices, but the global supply shortage situation has not changed, coupled with the development of emerging industries such as AI driving terminal demand, the bank expects tantalum prices to remain at high levels. Recommended targets: Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry. Risk Warning: Weaker-than-expected downstream demand, large amount of supply release, Fed rate cuts falling short of expectations.