CMSC: It is expected that the A-shares market will present a pattern of "shockingly rising with highs being lifted" in June.

CMSC released a research report stating that the current A-share market has entered a phase of profit-driven upward trend. It is expected that the index in June will show a pattern of "shaking upward and raising high points." From an external perspective, the high fall in oil prices will alleviate imported inflation. If the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve policy subsides, the market focus will return to the domestic profit theme. AI has become a variable with dual attributes of industrial growth and volatility amplification. Its prosperity has not yet peaked, but high trading concentration and large-scale IPOs will exacerbate market fluctuations. Therefore, the market in June is still verifying the logic of prosperity, and excess returns come from performance, supply and demand, and price increase chain. The allocation should focus on resource products, AI computing power chain, and export manufacturing with strong performance certainty. The main points of CMSC are as follows: 1. Overall judgment and core logic: Looking ahead to June, we judge that the A-share market is still in the third phase of profit-driven upward trend in June. The sharp K-shaped differentiation feature presented in the rebound of non-financial profit growth rate verified by the first quarter report, with prosperity elasticity focused on upstream resource products, TMT semiconductors, and some high-end exports of manufacturing, while the consumption and real estate chains are still at the bottom; Externally, the easing of tensions in the United States and Iran pushing oil prices down, coupled with the "hawkish expectations" of the first policy meeting of the new Federal Reserve chairman, have led to a easing of global liquidity pressure, which does not constitute a trend disturbance; On the industrial side, AI has shifted from the narrative of computing arms race to the commercialization and speeding up of implementation. Signals such as the adaptation of DeepSeek V4 to domestic computing power and the overseas cloud factory's capital expenditure expanding to storage/interconnection links support the continuity of the mainline prosperity; Although the funding side is affected by continuous net outflows of ETFs and stage liquidity disturbances caused by large-scale hard technology IPOs such as Langxin, the steady inflow of financing balance and structural incremental features have not changed, only driving the internal survival of the mainline rather than a trend reversal. 2. Style and industry allocation strategy: At the style level: It is expected that the style will be value-oriented first and then growth-oriented in June, with a period of balanced growth in the value and growth styles. Recommended index combinations include: China 1000, ChiNext Index, China Dividend, Value 100, 800 materials, etc. Looking at the long-term cycle, the conditions for a significant switch from growth to value style are not currently available. On the industry selection level, with the A-share market in a volatile upward trend, it is expected that the pattern of structural differentiation will continue in June. Industry allocation suggests focusing on three main lines: technology mainline, high export prosperity, and production capacity clearance recovery. 1) In the technology field, the prosperity continues to be high, with rotation and diffusion in specific areas. Focus on storage chips, optical communications, semiconductor equipment/materials, advanced packaging, commercial aerospace, and other links; 2) In the export sector, the contribution of high-end manufacturing is significant, showing resilience beyond expectations. Focus on optical communications and electronic components, machine tools and equipment, photovoltaic energy storage, aircraft manufacturing, and other areas. 3) In the direction of production capacity clearance turning point, with characteristics of "low valuation, high elasticity, and strong reversal", it is an important allocation direction to balance the high volatility of technology. Focus on basic chemicals, industrial metals, photovoltaic equipment, batteries, marine equipment, etc. 3. Liquidity and supply and demand of funds: Incremental supply and demand of funds in June may continue to net inflow, with financing funds expected to continue to be the main incremental funds. In terms of macro liquidity, the overall liquidity in May is moderately loose and marginally converging, tending to return to a gentle policy rate, while attention should be paid to the degree of matching between the acceleration of government bond issuance in June and the hedging intensity of the central bank. From an external liquidity perspective, the monetary policy is now in an observation waiting period, and in the future, attention should be focused on the trend of oil prices, subsequent PCE data, and further guidance on the possibility of interest rate hikes from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. In terms of stock market fund supply and demand, on the supply side, the scale of new equity funds has continued to increase compared to April, providing important support to the market; financing net inflows offset ETF net outflows. On the demand side, the scale of net reduction by major shareholders continues to expand; IPO issuance has decreased in scale, while refinancing scale has increased, and the scale of fund demand remains stable. In terms of main incremental funds in May, financing funds have become the main incremental funds in the market. 4. Medium-term prosperity and industry recommendations: Corporate profit margins are improving, especially in the TMT and resource sectors. In terms of corporate profits, the first quarter report showed better-than-expected growth, with accelerating performance concentrated in some resource and high-tech manufacturing sectors, such as industrial metals, precious metals, semiconductors, consumer electronics, wind power equipment, marine equipment, etc. Industries that are at the optimization stage of the supply and demand situation and turning points in clearance mainly include some consumer pharmaceuticals and chemical raw materials, decoration building materials, and batteries. Looking at the profit of industrial enterprises from January to April, TMT and resource sectors are still in the process of accelerating profit improvement, while the profit decline in the consumer sector has narrowed, showing an improving trend from the bottom. In terms of prosperity, high-prosperity areas in May mainly focus on information technology and financial real estate. Most metals and chemicals prices in the resource sector fell month-on-month, excavator sales in the midstream manufacturing sector improved, prices in the new energy industry chain mostly declined, profits in the consumer service sector in pig breeding continued to decline, trading activity in the stock market in financial real estate sector increased, and gas prices in the public utility sector went up. In conclusion, the recommendation for June focus around the technology mainline, high export prosperity, and the recovery of the turning point in production capacity clearance, with a focus on: 1) High-prosperity areas of the technology mainline, such as electronics (semiconductors) and mechanical equipment (automation equipment); 2) High-end manufacturing sectors with export advantages, such as power equipment (batteries, power grid equipment) and defense and military industry (marine equipment, aviation equipment); 3) Areas of production capacity clearance turning point recovery, such as non-ferrous metals (industrial metals, new materials) and basic chemicals (chemical products, chemical raw materials). 5. Track and industry trend investments: Anthropic has released the latest flagship large model Claude Opus 4.8. On May 28, 2026, Anthropic officially launched Claude Opus 4.8, with a focus on encoding, AI agent, and long-context complex tasks, with a 1M token context window. Compared to its predecessor, Claude Opus 4.8 has improved various benchmarks such as encoding, agent tasks, reasoning, and professional knowledge workflow. The model's availability, pricing, and deployment channels remain relatively continuous, with a regular API price of $5 per million tokens for input and $25 per million tokens for output, allowing enterprises and developers to call directly through Claude- Opus-4-8.