The largest IPO in history has not yet arrived, and the encrypted "shadow market" is already boiling! Traders are using perpetual contracts to bet on the listing price of SpaceX (SPCX.US).

With SpaceX (SPCX.US) gradually approaching what could become the largest IPO in history, a corner of the crypto market has already begun pricing in its public debut - recent historical experiences suggest that these prices are worth paying attention to. Traders are turning to perpetual futures - contracts without expiration dates - to place bets on a company's expected listing price months before the IPO. Contracts tracking Elon Musk's commercial space giant SpaceX, launched earlier this month, have seen an average daily trading volume of nearly $18 million over the past two weeks. Perpetual futures trading volume before IPO Unlike stocks, these contracts do not grant holders legal ownership of the underlying company, and they also incur ongoing costs during the holding period. However, last month, similar instruments accurately predicted the IPO price of Cerebras Systems (CBRS.US). Trade.xyz, the perpetual contract exchange, priced the related perpetual contract at $175 when the stock announced a price range of $115 to $125, with the final IPO price being $185. Additionally, according to a report from Castle Labs, one hour before Nasdaq opened, the perpetual contract price was $340, while Cerebras opened at $350. While a single case may not be enough to establish a long-term record, supporters believe that the Cerebras case demonstrates that these markets can aggregate real demand signals before an IPO opens to the public, rather than just creating speculative noise. The appeal of these products lies in the concept of "democratizing investment access." Retail investors often find it difficult to participate in large IPOs, as only a small number of shares are usually reserved for individual investors. In many markets where it is difficult to directly access relevant stocks, tokenized products provide investors with an alternative way. Although perpetual contracts may not allow retail investors to become SpaceX shareholders ahead of time, they at least provide something previously unattainable - the ability to trade prices in real time before the company's public listing. SpaceX lowers IPO valuation to $1.8 trillion As SpaceX approaches its IPO, the company is reportedly seeking a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in the US stock market. Compared to earlier reports in April where Musk suggested a valuation target of over $2 trillion, the company has adjusted its valuation goal following discussions with advisors and investors. The pre-IPO financing scale and valuation details are typically adjusted based on feedback from stakeholders before pricing. SpaceX previously sought to raise up to $750 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in global stock market history, surpassing the IPO of Saudi Aramco in 2019. SpaceX's IPO filing on May 20 displayed a grand narrative about artificial intelligence applications and super-scale AI data centers in space, signaling a shift in the company's growth positioning from a focus on reusable commercial model rockets to a super tech giant focusing on enterprise-level AI services and AI computing infrastructure, with dreams of building space orbit data centers and conquering a potential market worth $28.5 trillion, comparable to the entire US GDP. According to sources, SpaceX is expected to begin formal marketing related to its IPO on June 4, with an anticipated pricing date of June 11. However, the trading schedule could potentially be delayed by a few days. Discussions and deliberations are ongoing, as the company and its Wall Street advisors may further adjust the target valuation based on investor feedback during the marketing period. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp, Citigroup, and JPMorgan will co-lead the SpaceX IPO alongside 18 other large commercial banks. The company, formally known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp., is set to debut on the Nasdaq market and Nasdaq Texas with the stock ticker symbol "SPCX." Analysts suggest that if SpaceX indeed lowers its valuation slightly, the core logic does not come from the AI and commercial space narrative but from market investors demanding a discount for the company's core business operations, heavy capital spending, uncertainties in the AI applications business, and execution risks during the price discovery stage. According to the IPO filing, SpaceX's revenue in 2025 is estimated to be around $18.7 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 33%, driven mainly by Starlink, contributing around $11.387 billion. However, they also revealed a net loss of around $4.9 billion, indicating that the market cannot just price SpaceX as the "strongest commercial space company globally" but must also re-discount as a "platform company with heavy capital expenditure, research and development, and AI investment."