SpaceX lowers IPO valuation to $1.8 trillion, Musk's $28.5 trillion super blueprint faces public market test

According to reports cited by the media quoting informed sources, as SpaceX, led by the world's richest man and Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk, approaches its initial public offering (IPO) on the US stock market, the company is seeking a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion. In comparison, reports from multiple media outlets in April stated that Musk had told investment banks that he expects SpaceX's target valuation to exceed $2 trillion. Information from informed sources reveals that, after active negotiations with advisors and investors, SpaceX's valuation target is currently being adjusted downward. Informed sources state that specific details regarding the size of the IPO and valuation will typically be adjusted prior to pricing based on feedback from stakeholders. Previously, informed sources indicated that SpaceX is seeking to raise as much as $75 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in global stock market history, surpassing the 2019 IPO of oil giant Saudi Aramco. In a filing submitted on May 20th, SpaceX showcased to investors a grand narrative about the application of artificial intelligence and a mega AI data center in space. This display shows the evolution of the company's growth positioning: from focusing on manufacturing reusable commercial model rockets and operating a profitable long-term satellite internet business as a space exploration company, to transitioning into a super tech giant focusing on enterprise-level artificial intelligence services and AI computing infrastructure. The dream is to build a space orbit data center and conquer a market with a total potential size of $28.5 trillion, comparable to the GDP of the United States. Informed sources indicate that SpaceX is expected to begin its formal marketing work related to the IPO as early as June 4th, with pricing expected to be finalized as early as June 11th. However, informed sources add that the trading timetable could be delayed by several days. It is mentioned that discussions and deliberations are still ongoing, and the company, along with Wall Street financial advisors, may decide to further increase the target valuation based on investor feedback during the marketing period. A SpaceX spokesperson did not immediately respond to requests for comments. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc., and JPMorgan will jointly lead SpaceX's IPO along with 18 other large commercial banks. The company, formally named Space Exploration Technologies Corp., is expected to debut on the Nasdaq market and Nasdaq Texas under the stock symbol "SPCX." While the valuation has slightly cooled down, Musk's space AI ambitions remain high. Analysts suggest that if SpaceX does indeed slightly lower its valuation, this core logic is not derived from the perspective of AI and commercial aerospace narratives, but rather from the discounted expectations of public market investors during the price discovery phase in terms of the company's core business operations losses, high capital expenditures, uncertainty in AI application businesses, and execution risks. The IPO filing shows that SpaceX's revenue in 2025 is approximately $18.7 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of about 33%, mainly driven by Starlink, contributing approximately $11.387 billion. However, it also discloses a net loss of approximately $4.9 billion, indicating that the market cannot simply price it as the "world's strongest commercial aerospace company," but must also consider it as a platform company that heavily invests in capital expenditure, research and development, and AI. SpaceX's financial picture is much more complex than what the private market imagines, especially with the newly merged xAI artificial intelligence economic model yet to be fully validated by the public market. Traditional rocket launches and Starlink satellite internet business have strong business barriers, but the company's profit statements are significantly affected after incorporating xAI, X, and AI infrastructure into its listing narrative. TechCrunch reports that xAI is expected to have revenues of approximately $3.2 billion in 2025, with an operational loss of around $6.4 billion. SpaceX's artificial intelligence business had revenue of $818 million in the first quarter of 2026, with a loss of $2.5 billion. These figures indicate that SpaceX is transitioning from a "commercial aerospace and satellite internet company with gradually improving cash flow" to a "super hybrid of commercial aerospace, satellite communication, artificial intelligence computing power, and social data platforms," which naturally requires a higher discount for risk. Engineering execution and regulatory risks are also likely to be reconsidered in the valuation system by the market. SpaceX's long-term premium comes from reliable rocket reusability, Starlink satellite network, Starship transportation capabilities, and future orbital computing infrastructure, all of which rely on extremely complex engineering loops: rocket reusability reliability, launch frequency, regulatory permits, satellite networking, spectrum resources, orbital debris management, ground station links, low Earth communication bandwidth, cooling, power supply, and maintenance cycles. The Federal Aviation Administration previously suspended Starship V3 after an accident, indicating that Changzheng Engineering Technology risk will not disappear due to the listing narrative. For public market investors, a valuation of over $2 trillion must prove that "rockets, Starlink, artificial intelligence, orbital data centers, and 100GW-level energy storage" can all be realized simultaneously. $28.5 trillion - This is the "Space AI Empire" super blueprint that SpaceX has presented to Wall Street Last week's highly anticipated IPO prospectus released by SpaceX shows that its self-assessed total potential market size (Total Addressable Market, TAM) reaches an astonishing $28.5 trillion; if this so-called "Space AI Empire" super blueprint scale is eventually realized, it will approach the entire output of the US economy. The company stated in its IPO prospectus that it has identified "the largest total potential market prospects in human history," mainly driven by AI super software, with contributions from the space sector also not to be ignored. This $28.5 trillion forecast, compared to the nominal GDP of the United States in the first quarter of 2026, nearly $32 trillion, is indeed impressive; with the enterprise application market centered around AI estimated at $22.7 trillion, equivalent to about 70% of the total output of the US economy. In addition, if SpaceX, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), and xAI ultimately move towards a deeper integration, then its narrative and valuation ceiling will be further raised; Wedbush's senior analyst Dan Ives believes that SpaceX and Tesla, Inc. may merge in 2027. This TAM is extremely vast and belongs to the long-term market space, and its true realization depends on Starlink cash flow, commercialization of AI business, feasibility of orbital data center technology, launch costs, regulation, and capital expenditure efficiency. The outlook of $28.5 trillion does not only cover the "Space AI data center market size" that Musk has mentioned multiple times recently, but is the total addressable market (TAM) self-calculated by SpaceX in its IPO documents, with the majority coming from AI software/enterprise applications rather than space or space data centers. Broken down, the total AI-related estimate is approximately $26.5 trillion, including AI enterprise applications of $22.7 trillion, AI infrastructure of $2.4 trillion, AI consumer subscriptions of $760 billion, and AI digital advertising of $600 billion; the true "space-enabled solution" is only $370 billion, with Starlink broadband and mobile totaling approximately $1.61 trillion. As the richest person in the world to date, Musk has achieved what others thought was impossible in the past - creating a commercially viable high-frequency rocket launch business through SpaceX, bringing electric vehicles into the mainstream market through the global electric vehicle leader Tesla, Inc., and providing internet connection infrastructure services from space through Starlink. But there are also investors who doubt whether Musk can truly build the "most epic" chip manufacturing operation in Austin and whether he can truly achieve his vision of "artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, and space AI data center super blueprint."