Global billionaires are starting "de-dollarization" transactions! Family offices are reducing their exposure to the US, shifting towards diversifying their investments into emerging markets, gold, and the Swiss franc.

A research report based on extensive surveys shows that the world's top family offices are planning the largest portfolio adjustments in years, with many family offices in the process of withdrawing funds from the U.S. market. According to the UBS Global Family Office Research report, a full 60% of family offices plan to strategically adjust their investment allocations in the next year - about twice the level of the past five years. Among those family offices planning major adjustments, many are reducing their U.S. market holdings and increasing investments in emerging market assets. From a global perspective, North America is the only region where family offices plan to reduce asset allocations in the next 12 months. Most of them indicate plans to increase investments in Latin America and Africa. John Mathews, Head of Wealth Management at UBS Americas, said, "Last year, all family offices were very concerned about global trade tariff tensions. Now, the focus has shifted to geopolitical tensions around the world, escalating debt levels in developed markets, and the current interest rate and long-term U.S. Treasury yield environment. And it's not just the short-term impact of these factors, but also their longer-term implications." The views of Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of global asset management giant DoubleLine Capital and known as the "new bond king," are highly consistent with the trend of family offices shifting towards emerging markets. The veteran fixed income portfolio manager on Wall Street continues to advocate for betting against the weak dollar, real assets, and non-dollar assets, especially recommending investing in non-U.S. markets, local currency assets, and emerging markets. He recommends allocating at least 30% to 40% of the portfolio to non-dollar assets, and is bullish on gold, silver, and emerging markets benefiting from a weak dollar. The underlying logic is that the risks posed by U.S. debt, fiscal deficits, valuation concentration, and dollar purchasing power are weakening the narrative of "U.S. assets as the only safe haven." With confidence in the dollar wavering, family offices are reducing their U.S. exposure. This trend of family offices withdrawing reflects a broader move away from the U.S. market. Family offices are the private investment arms of the wealthiest families. The highly concentrated U.S. stock market, concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble, tariff policies, a falling dollar index, economic policy fluctuations, and rising debt and bond yields have led many family offices to reduce their exposure to the U.S. market and diversify more funds globally. However, advisors caution that this is not a comprehensive "selling of America" trade. On the contrary, international family offices are looking to achieve broader diversification in geographical allocations as global crises increase. The headlines in family office investments are "jurisdictional diversification," which involves spreading funds across multiple countries to hedge risks. According to the UBS survey, two-thirds of family offices currently allocate their investable bank assets across at least three jurisdictions. Nearly one-third of family offices allocate their assets across at least four jurisdictions, including Latin America, the U.S., China, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. One of the key goals of family offices is to reduce their dollar-denominated investment exposure, or what some call "de-dollarization." According to the UBS survey, over a quarter of family offices plan to reduce the size of their dollar-denominated asset holdings. Two-thirds of family offices indicate that they expect confidence in the dollar's role as the global reserve currency to continue to decline, with nearly half saying that their dollar exposure has been too high for a long time. The survey report highlights that the Swiss franc and euro are the preferred sovereign currencies for diversification. According to the survey, family offices indicate that the number one risk in the next 12 months and the next five years is geopolitical uncertainty. The second-ranking risk is global trade wars. Runaway inflation, cyber attacks, and debt crises are also listed as high risks. The survey states, "These forces suggest that family offices are not only preparing for near-term volatility, but also for a longer-term investment stage that is riskier and more interconnected. Family offices seem to be focusing on building resilience in a broader, more complex risk environment, combining asset allocation adjustments with a multi-location deployment strategy." The survey found that family offices plan to increase investments in emerging market stocks, as well as infrastructure and gold investments. They plan to slightly reduce cash and real estate market holdings. However, there is a significant and growing divergence between U.S. family offices and overseas family offices. U.S. family offices are willing to continue concentrating on domestic market allocations, and report that over the past year, their assets in the U.S. have increased from an average of 86% to 88%. North America also represents the majority of global family investments, accounting for approximately 53% of total family assets worldwide. However, non-U.S. family offices are bringing more funds back to their home countries or investing in other non-U.S. markets. For example, Chinese family offices currently have half of their assets invested in Western Europe. According to the survey, 41% of assets are allocated in their domestic regions for Western European family offices. Matthews said, "U.S. family offices are effectively doubling down on domestic asset types. But family offices from around the world are now slightly diversifying out of dollar-denominated securities to steadily and thoroughly diversify away from the United States." Wall Street rekindles a new emerging market allocation strategy on a global scale. North America is the only region that family offices plan to reduce allocation in the next 12 months, while they plan to increase allocation in Latin America and Africa. More importantly, over a quarter of family offices plan to reduce dollar-denominated assets, about two-thirds expect confidence in the dollar's reserve currency status to decline, and nearly half believe their exposure to the dollar is too high. This suggests that "de-dollarization" is spreading from central bank reserves to the allocation of ultra-high net worth private capital. In addition to "new bond king" Gundlach, institutions such as J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch are bullish on emerging markets in different dimensions. J.P. Morgan Private Bank believes that the drivers of emerging market stocks in 2026 include a weak dollar, more favorable global financial conditions, demographic structure, domestic consumption, manufacturing, infrastructure, and digital ecosystem investments. J.P. Morgan Stanley Investment Management believes that the outlook for emerging market bonds in 2026 is "bright," with core support including a drop in inflation, attractive currency valuations, rising demand for non-dollar assets, and many emerging market central banks having smoother easing space after raising interest rates earlier. J.P. Morgan Asset Management also notes that the dollar may modestly decline by 2% to 4% annually in the long term, which will improve external financing conditions for emerging markets and alleviate pressures on dollar debt repayment. J.P. Morgan Stanley Investment Management believes that the outlook for emerging market bonds in 2026 is "bright," with core support including a drop in inflation, attractive currency valuations, rising demand for non-dollar assets, and many emerging market central banks having smoother easing space after raising interest rates earlier. In terms of market performance, this is no longer just a macro narrative. J.P. Morgan Asset Management points out that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 34.4% in dollar terms last year, continuing to outperform early in 2026 with an increase of 11.5% year-to-date; statistical data shows that emerging markets have started the year strong in 2026, driven by the dollar falling to a four-year low, with strong dollar-denominated returns in markets such as Colombia, South Korea, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, and Taiwan, some markets seeing gains of over 20%. South Korea and Taiwan were driven by the AI semiconductor supply chain, while Latin America and South Africa benefited from high real interest rates, currency appreciation, and support from commodity prices. All of this indicates that the emerging markets are not a single trading logic, but a trend of multiple asset revaluation based on "weak dollar, high real interest rates, commodity cycles, AI supply chains, and local reforms." On the risk front, if the dollar strengthens due to war or safe-haven demand, U.S. long bond yields continue to rise, oil price shocks drag down emerging markets importers, or global risk appetite sharply deteriorates, emerging markets will still face pressure. But from a medium- to long-term asset allocation perspective, "reducing U.S. and dollar concentration, increasing market and non-dollar asset weights" has become a common direction for more and more top funds.