Guotai Haitong: Active research and development in the lipid-lowering drug industry, market size steadily increasing.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the global lipid-lowering drug market is steadily expanding, with a market size of $34.3 billion USD in 2024 and expected to grow to $48.1 billion USD by 2034, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.5%. The research and development of lipid-lowering drugs is active in the industry, and is a field actively pursued by many multinational pharmaceutical companies. The industry believes that the research targets for lipid-lowering drugs are relatively concentrated, with a large space for drug iteration, making it a suitable field for leveraging the advantage of Chinese engineers in drug development. The industry is experiencing intensive catalysis, with the possibility of multiple major catalysts in 2026 and 2027. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: The lipid-lowering drug industry is steadily growing due to the large patient population and unmet clinical needs. Research progress on targets such as PCSK9, Lp(a), APOC3, and ANGPTL3 has significantly provided patients with more treatment options, with emerging new technology routes such as small nucleic acid drugs and oral potent drugs driving the global lipid-lowering drug market to grow steadily. The global lipid-lowering drug market is steadily expanding, with a market size of $34.3 billion USD in 2024 and expected to grow to $48.1 billion USD by 2034, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.5%. The domestic lipid-lowering drug market in 2024 is approximately RMB 30 billion, a year-on-year decrease of about 7%. MNCs attach great importance to cardiovascular chronic diseases, particularly in the research and development of lipid-lowering drugs. Many MNCs continue to focus on the cardiovascular metabolism field, with companies such as Novartis, Amgen, Merck, Pfizer, and Sanofi focusing on the PCSK9 and Lp(a) core targets, with various technologies including monoclonal antibodies, siRNA, ASO, oral small molecules, and oral cyclic peptides. The industry believes that mechanisms such as monoclonal antibodies, siRNA, and ASO have compliance advantages in long-term lipid-lowering, while oral small molecules and oral cyclic peptides have advantages in convenience of use and manufacturing costs. Different technology routes correspond to target patient groups and market spaces. The industry has intense catalysis, with the possibility of multiple major catalysts in 2026 and 2027. The industry has outlined important catalysts including the expected release of phase III data for Novartis's Lp(a) ASO, Amgen's Lp(a) siRNA, and Novartis's PCSK9 siRNA for secondary prevention in 2026/2027. The industry believes that as the clinical value of more innovative targets is validated and the clinical value of validated targets in frontline prevention is proven, the lipid-lowering drug market is likely to expand. Domestic companies are actively laying out, with multiple authorizations already established. It is advised to pay attention to relevant companies that have high certainty of overseas value realization through BD agreements, as well as relevant companies that are expected to reach BD agreements through overseas image catalysis. From 2024 to the present, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals has reached a agreement with Merck Biopharma on Lp(a) small molecule, CSPC PHARMA with AstraZeneca on Lp(a) small molecule, Boai Medical with Novartis twice on small nucleic acid pipeline, Revive Bio with Boehringer Ingelheim on small nucleic acid pipeline, Saint-bio with Pfizer and Genetech on small nucleic acid pipeline. There is active multinational MNC transactions in the cardiovascular metabolism field. Recommended companies include Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, CSPC PHARMA, Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals, and related target Revive Bio. Risk warning Risks of failure in innovative drug development, risks of clinical progress falling short of expectations, risks of drug sales not meeting expectations, risks of domestic drug overseas authorization not meeting expectations.