SpaceX IPO The "magnetic field effect" continues to ferment! US stocks in the space sector violently soared, with Momentus (MNTS.US) surging 67% in pre-market trading.

On May 26th (Tuesday), during the pre-market trading session of the US stock market, the space sector, ignited by SpaceX, continued its frenzy. As of the time of writing, Momentus (MNTS.US) surged 67%, Redwire (RDW.US) rose 16%, MDA Space (MDA.US) rose 18%, Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US) rose 8%, Voyager Technologies (VOYG.US) rose 7.6%, Intuitive Machines (LUNR.US) rose 10%, York Space Systems (YSS.US) rose 7.8%, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) rose 6.5%, Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) rose 5.6% - almost all major space concept stocks saw significant jumps in pre-market trading simultaneously, continuing the upward trend of the entire sector since SpaceX submitted its S-1 filing on May 20th. The IPO influence of SpaceX: the transmission logic of "sector resonance" SpaceX's IPO is not only a milestone for the company itself but also like a huge magnet, triggering a chain reaction of "pricing re-evaluation" in the entire commercial aerospace sector. Its IPO expectations have already generated a systematic "magnetic field effect" on the entire commercial aerospace sector. Prior to the IPO scheduled to land on Nasdaq on June 12th, market predictions have been made around the valuation of the listing first day that has yet to occur. Currently, market prediction data from Polymarket shows that the market believes there is a 71% chance that SpaceX's market value on the first day of listing will exceed 2 trillion US dollars, with the total trading volume of related contracts reaching 2.14 million US dollars. Traders on the Kalshi platform are even more optimistic: the probability of SpaceX's valuation falling in the range of 2 trillion to 2.5 trillion US dollars is the highest. Data from the "Space 60" list compiled by Morgan Stanley shows that about 24 space-related stocks have doubled in value since the beginning of the year. From the day SpaceX submitted its public S-1 prospectus on May 20th to pre-market on May 26th - less than five trading days - the aforementioned space stocks experienced a new round of collective surges, with the core logic being typical of "price expectations": First, the anchoring effect of valuation. Once SpaceX lands on Nasdaq with a valuation of 1.75 trillion to 2 trillion US dollars - equivalent to the level of the current top global technology companies - it will provide the entire commercial aerospace industry with the first truly trillion-level valuation reference. Even if the revenue scale is far behind SpaceX's peers, its market-sales ratio (P/S) multiple will be recalibrated as a result. As pointed out in a research report released by Huatai on May 26th, SpaceX as a "global leading commercial aerospace + AI company", its listing plan "may boost investment enthusiasm and confidence in the aerospace industry, and is expected to resonate in the capital markets of China and the United States". Second, betting on the expectation overflow of liquidity. The IPO fundraising size of 75 billion US dollars - equivalent to 2.5 times the record of 29.4 billion US dollars by Saudi Aramco in 2019 - means a huge passive capital inflow. Once SpaceX is included in major indices such as the S&P 500, hundreds of billions of dollars of ETFs and index funds will be forced to allocate space assets. Investors are positioning themselves in advance, expecting this liquidity overflow to raise the valuation level of the entire sector. Third, the transition of the "space economy" from a marginal narrative to mainstream allocation. Previously, space stocks were long seen as a high-risk niche investment theme. SpaceX's entry into the public market at a level of 2 trillion US dollars will completely change this perception - it forces all major global asset management institutions to seriously assess their exposure to the space sector. This "rethinking of asset allocation" is happening in advance. Differentiation and risks in the sector surge The logic of this round of "following the rise" is not one-size-fits-all. Among the 11 space concept stocks with the highest increase, the differences in the quality of each company are stark. Rocket Lab and Redwire are the most thoroughly covered in analysis, with their increases since the beginning of the year exceeding 78%. The role of Rocket Lab in this round of market is particularly worth attention. As one of the few private companies globally with reliable orbital launch capabilities, other than SpaceX, Rocket Lab's Q1 2026 financial report released in mid-May showed the company's revenue breaking the $2 billion mark, exceeding market expectations. Since May 16th, Rocket Lab's stock price saw a significant surge within a trading week, followed by a second round of momentum after SpaceX submitted its S-1 filing. The market's attention to Rocket Lab is not limited to the logic of being a "SpaceX alternative". With the accelerating construction of global low-orbit satellite constellations - including SpaceX's Starlink, Amazon.com, Inc. Kuiper, and China-led satellite internet projects - the market demand for small and medium launch rockets is experiencing structural growth. Rocket Lab's electron rocket and the neutron rocket under development are positioned just above this demand curve. Redwire represents the logic of space infrastructure. As a supplier of space infrastructure and subsystems, Redwire's backlog of orders continues to climb - the latest data shows a significant increase in backlog orders - reflecting strong demand in the space manufacturing industry. Voyager Technologies recorded record net sales for the quarter and raised its full-year revenue guidance. Firefly Aerospace's first-quarter report also exceeded market expectations. MDA Space's increase is closely related to the growth of global space situational awareness and satellite service demand. However, as the stock with the highest surge, the fragility of Momentus' fundamentals is also most evident - AInvest's intraday analysis warns that the stock has "thin volume", implying excessive volatility risk behind this surge. This stratification reveals a core asymmetry in this round of "sector resonance": SpaceX's IPO provides a reasonable narrative framework for "re-pricing the entire industry", but under this framework, the differences in the quality of each company are overshadowed by the collective increase. As funds are drawn into the space sector attracted by SpaceX's huge narrative, companies with solid fundamentals and purely conceptual companies can both receive premiums - but this state of "rising tide lifting all boats" could cause vulnerable targets to be hit first if SpaceX's stock price experiences significant volatility after listing. Looking back at history, almost every time a similar super-sized IPO was completed, the market experienced a harsh "differentiation regression". An analysis of the 50 highest-valued IPOs in the past five years shows that in about three-quarters of cases, investors would have achieved better returns by buying the S&P 500 index fund. This data highlights the difficulty of finding cheap stocks among companies whose valuations often soared significantly before going public. The data shows that if an investor buys each IPO stock, as of May 21st, the average return is 27%. In contrast, the average rise of the S&P 500 index during the same historical period is 53%. This analysis assumes that the buyer can purchase the stock at the IPO price (which is usually impossible for retail investors), or simply buy the broad S&P index.