Huaan: Optimistic about the flexible direction of solar wings. CPI film or key material solutions.

Huaan's research report states that reducing the cost of commercial aerospace is crucial, and the flexibility of solar arrays is an important direction. CPI film is a deterministic choice for the flexibility of solar arrays. The company calculates that by 2030, the annual market demand for CPI film will be 77/46/23 billion yuan under optimistic/neutral/pessimistic assumptions. CPI film is expected to achieve domestic substitution, with some domestic products already successfully developed and entering or expected to enter the on-orbit validation stage, focusing on companies expected to achieve domestic substitution. From a competitive perspective, the company believes that as a space-grade product, CPI film primarily needs advantages in material formulation and process barriers, on-orbit test experience, mass production capability, and system-level solution capability. Huaan's main points are as follows: -Reducing the cost of commercial aerospace is crucial, and the flexibility of solar arrays is an important direction. -Being the first to occupy is a core competitive factor in the satellite network field. With limited resources in low Earth orbit, the Earth's near-space orbit can accommodate approximately 60,000 satellites. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) adopts the principle of "first come, first served" and "effective use" for frequencies and orbits, requiring 10% of satellite deployment to be completed within 2 years, 50% within 5 years, and all deployment completed within 7 years. SpaceX has launched over 10,000 satellites, Amazon's constellation is starting to be deployed, and domestic "GW constellation" and "Qianfan constellation" are entering a normalized launch stage. The company believes that 2026 is an important window for building satellite networks. -"System cost" is an important underlying logic. Specific to the satellite itself, it needs lower weight, smaller volume, lower failure rates, and large-scale manufacturing capabilities. Cost is an important consideration factor for achieving satellite deployment quickly; and in the satellite sector, taking Starlink as a reference, cost reduction in various aspects such as satellite design and manufacturing, satellite structural design (such as flat stacked satellites) is needed to reduce costs. Especially with the inclusion of computational satellites, satellite restructuring and cost reduction will become even more important. -In the context of solar arrays, flexibility is a deterministic development direction. Solar arrays occupy a large volume on the satellite, and traditional rigid solutions use three-junction gallium arsenide cells, which are relatively high in overall cost due to raw materials and process reasons; at the same time, based on rigid solar array structures, power-to-weight ratios are relatively low, weight and volume issues limit further cost reductions in rocket launches and satellite operations. Flexible solutions can achieve power-to-weight ratios of over 300W/kg, reduce volume by 60%, and have reliability and flexibility, adapting to mass industrialized batch production, making flexibility a deterministic development direction for solar arrays. -CPI film is a deterministic choice for the flexibility of solar arrays. Currently, the mainstream route for solar arrays is rigid gallium arsenide, but is also transitioning to a flexible gallium arsenide solution; at the same time, the crystalline silicon route has the potential to be the mainstream selection in the future due to its low cost advantage; in the long term, the crystalline silicon-perovskite stack is expected to become a competitive solution. However, regardless of which solution is chosen, moving towards flexibility requires changes in encapsulation layer materials. -CPI is expected to become the mainstream route in the commercial project field. Currently, UTG glass and CPI film are potential front encapsulation materials for flexible solar arrays. UTG glass, based on its long lifecycle, natural resistance to atomic oxygen, resistance to high-energy particle irradiation, and high-temperature resistance, is expected to become an important choice for deep space exploration projects; while CPI film, based on lower weight, stronger flexibility, packaging advantages, etc., suits various types of solar cell technology routes and is expected to become the mainstream choice for commercial projects. -Market space calculation: According to the company's calculations, under optimistic/neutral/pessimistic assumptions, the annual market demand space for CPI film by 2030 is estimated to be 77/46/23 billion yuan. -CPI film is expected to achieve domestic substitution, with some domestic products already successfully developed and entering or expected to enter the on-orbit validation stage, focusing on companies expected to achieve domestic substitution. -The global CPI market has long been dominated by Japanese and South Korean companies, including South Korea's Kolon PI, Japan's Sumitomo Chemical, and South Korea's SK Film Business, which occupy a major share of the market due to their technological accumulation, supply chain integration capabilities, and downstream customer resources. However, their products are primarily used in the consumer electronics sector. -From a competitive perspective, the company believes that as a space-grade product, CPI film primarily needs advantages in material formulation and process barriers, on-orbit test experience, mass production capability, and system-level solution capability. -In terms of domestic progress, companies such as Hangzhou First Applied Material (providing a complete set of products from PI to CPI to organic silicon), Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology (holding a satellite company, expected to promote on-orbit verification), Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co., Ltd, WG Tech (JiangXi) Group (already starting on-orbit verification), Rayitek Hi-Tech Film (already starting on-orbit verification), Crown Advanced Material, etc., are laying out CPI film products for space photovoltaics. -Risk factors: Commercial aerospace development progress falling short of expectations, company product development falling short of expectations, technological disruption risks, and intensifying competitive landscape risks.