Zhongjin: AIDC drives the long-term supply-demand gap in power generation, which continues to be optimistic about the power generation industry chain.

CICC released a research report stating that GE Vernova (GEV.US) recently announced its performance for the first quarter of 2026, with in-hand orders for gas turbines exceeding market expectations and prices continuing to rise. GE Vernova expects the backlog target for gas engines by the end of 2026 to be increased from the previous estimate of 100GW to 110GW. The prices of new orders in the first half of 2026 are 10%-20% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2025. If only considering the supply of gas turbine production capacity for data centers in the United States, the shortfall in gas turbine production capacity needed for data centers will increase from 4.3GW in 2025 to 15.1GW in 2030, with a long-term production capacity gap. Optimistic about the growth of overseas gas turbines in the domestic parts industry chain and domestic demand for complete machines in the context of power shortages. The main viewpoints of CICC are as follows: There is a significant increase in electricity demand for data centers, with the United States announcing a cumulative capacity for data center projects of 241GW. Considering the demand for GPU shipments, CICC expects that the AIDC will bring global data center and US data center electricity demand from 13.9/10.0GW in 2025 to 69.2/49.8GW in 2028. From 2025 to 2028, the cumulative electricity demand for global data centers and US data centers is expected to be 169.2GW and 121.8GW respectively. The shortfall in gas turbine production capacity needed for data centers will increase from 4.3GW in 2025 to 27.2GW in 2030 Due to constraints on the expansion of gas turbine components, global gas turbine production capacity will increase from 52GW in 2025 to 94GW in 2030, with a CAGR of only 12.6%. The available gas turbine capacity for data center demand is expected to increase from 2.6GW in 2025 to 39.4GW in 2030. If only considering the supply of available gas turbine capacity for data centers to the United States, the shortfall in gas turbine production capacity needed for data centers is expected to increase from 4.3GW in 2025 to 15.1GW in 2030, with a long-term production capacity gap. The overseas gas turbine domestic parts industry chain and domestic whole machine exports Investment opportunities in power shortage equipment. The shortage of power generation equipment has shifted from heavy fuel to light fuel and aero-engine gas turbines, and has also shifted to gas internal combustion engines. Due to the long-term power shortage, in a 3-4 year timeframe, attention should be paid to the demand for nuclear power and the increase in SOFC demand. Focus on parts and domestic whole machine demand. Currently, the United States is the main market for self-built data centers, and the main procurement of power sources is overseas gas turbines and diesel engines. Therefore, overseas gas turbines have made progress in the domestic industry chain. With heavy construction of data centers in non-US overseas regions, it is recommended to focus on the breakthroughs in the delivery of domestically produced complete machine equipment brought about by the demand for electricity in non-US regions. Risk factors Data center construction investment falls short of expectations, and commercialization of AI applications falls short of expectations.