Golden finance: What opportunities are there in the future market for A-shares high dividend strategy?

release research report, stating that from August 2022 to the launch of the "924" market in 2024, the dividend style is one of the strong themes in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets. The resonance of three major factors - scarce high prosperity investment opportunities, tight funding balance, and the "asset shortage" environment - is the reason why the dividend strategy is advantageous. However, after the "924" market, the first two factors have reversed, leading to a decrease in the attractiveness of high dividend allocation. Looking ahead, the opportunity for high dividend strategies still tends to be stage-specific, mainly appearing in market volatility adjustment periods or stage-specific rebalancing windows after excessive crowding in growth style trading. Key views of Zhongjin are as follows: 2025 dividend characteristics of A-share listed companies The total amount of cash dividends of A-share listed companies reached a new high, with about 90% of profitable enterprises conducting cash dividends. In 2025, A-share listed companies' profits increased by 3% year-on-year, combining with policy encouragement for dividend return, the total amount of corporate dividends set a new historical high, and the dividend ratio continued to rise. Specifically: 1) By 2025, the total amount of cash dividends of A-share listed companies reached 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 3% year-on-year; the proportion of cash dividend-paying companies was 66.4%, excluding loss-making listed companies, the proportion of dividend-paying companies in 2025 was 88.8%. 2) The overall dividend ratio of A-shares (cash dividends/net profit) increased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.9% compared to 2024, and the dividend ratio after excluding loss-making companies was 39.1%, with the dividend ratio of non-financial listed companies (excluding loss-making companies) being 47.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from 2024. 3) As of May 22nd, the dividend yield corresponding to the 2025 annual dividend on the A-share market was 1.8%, the dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index was 4.3%, and the dividend yield of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 2.7%, still higher than the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, but the gap has narrowed compared to last year. In terms of industry structure, the dividend rate of the food and beverage, textile and apparel, and communication industries ranks top, specifically: The high dividend sector is mostly located in traditional undervalued industries, with the dividend yield of most industries falling compared to 2024. From the perspective of dividend yield, based on the cash dividends announced in 2025, the dividend yield of most industries in A-shares decreased compared to 2024, only the dividend yields corresponding to cash dividends of the food and beverage, utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, non-banking financial and computer industries increased compared to 2024, while the dividend yields of industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and coal decreased significantly. The five industries with the highest dividend yields calculated based on the total market value at the end of 2025 are banking (4.1%), coal (4.1%), household appliances (3.6%), food and beverage (3.6%), and petroleum and petrochemical (3.6%), mostly in low-valuation traditional industries. Industries with high dividend ratios are mainly concentrated in the consumer industry, communication, and coal, with over half of the industries still having higher dividend ratios compared to 2024. In terms of dividend ratio, the industries with the highest dividend ratios in 2025 are food and beverage (83.4%), textiles and apparel (62.9%), communication (62.7%), coal (61.1%), and household appliances (60.2%); industries that have seen the most significant increases from 2024 include agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, food and beverage, and computer industries with good cash flow and relatively low capital expenditure pressures, with increases of over 6 percentage points. Industries such as real estate, automotive, media, communication, and non-banking financial saw a significant decrease in dividend ratios, with the real estate industry's dividend ratio dropping from 29.4% in 2024 to 14.4% in 2025, still constrained by profitability and balance sheets. Overall, the dividend situation of A-shares in 2025 has shifted from universal improvement to differentiation, influenced by factors such as the quality of free cash flow, profit stability, and capital expenditure cycles. Specifically looking at secondary industries, industries that meet the criteria of being in the top 20% in terms of dividend yield and dividend ratio (i.e., with a dividend yield greater than 2.6% and a dividend ratio greater than 57%) include food processing, clothing and apparel, beverage and dairy products, kitchen and bathroom appliances, communication services, non-white spirits, accessories, white goods, commercial vehicles, coal mining, textile manufacturing, refining and trading. Market outlook for A-share high dividend strategy In an environment where risk appetite is rising, the current high dividend strategy may still not have the conditions for relative returns, but it is suitable for conservative investors to make medium to long-term choices. From August 2022 to the launch of the "924" market in 2024, the dividend style was one of the strong themes in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets. The resonance of three major factors - scarce high prosperity investment opportunities, tight funding balance, and the "asset shortage" environment - is the reason why the dividend strategy is advantageous. However, after the "924" market, the first two factors have reversed, leading to a decrease in the attractiveness of high dividend allocation. Looking ahead, the above-mentioned environment is still not conducive to the outperformance of high-dividend strategies: 1) The high prosperity of the AI industry chain is spreading, and high-growth opportunities are not scarce. Since 2026, the AI industry has accelerated its trend, large model technologies continue to iterate, AI agents are gradually popularized, and the market has begun to see the possibility of the AI industry chain connecting commercial closed loops and realizing performance growth, forming an investment environment where the AI industry chain is the main line, with multiple support lines such as energy transformation and high-end manufacturing. This sharply contrasts with the environment where the growth industry has been generally constrained by supply-demand imbalance since 2023, and scarce high-growth opportunities persist. In an environment where the growth style has the upper hand, the market has investment opportunities in race tracks with high profit prospects and large income elasticity, making it difficult for high dividend strategies to achieve excess returns. 2) Active funding and continuous influx of incremental funds into the market. The stock market's funding remains active, forming a positive feedback loop with index performance, with the issuance of equity-based funds rebounding, and individual investors opening accounts actively. In an environment of relatively abundant incremental funds, the generally liquid high dividend sector is not an area where incremental funds are significantly allocated. 3) Risk appetite is rising, weakening the logic of the "asset shortage." Although the fundamental economy and macro liquidity still support a low-interest rate environment, high dividend stocks still have absolute return value. However, as the stock market continues to rebound and some first-tier cities show signs of stabilizing property prices, the logic of the "asset shortage" is marginally weakening, affecting high dividend strategies as well. Looking ahead, the opportunity for high dividend strategies still tends to be stage-specific, mainly appearing in market volatility adjustment periods or stage-specific rebalancing windows after excessive crowding in growth style trading. In terms of subjective stock selection strategies, it is essential to focus on independently fundamental logic opportunities from the bottom up. Based on the above analysis, the difficulty of investing solely in high dividend strategies has increased, and it is recommended to explore individual stock opportunities that are less correlated with the economic cycle and have logic such as industrial expansion, energy transformation, capacity clearance, etc. The primary industries involved include household appliances, mechanical equipment, utilities, chemicals, and transportation. Table 1: A-share listed companies' total cash dividends reach a new high, with nearly 90% of profitable enterprises paying cash dividends Source: Wind, CICC Research Department Table 2: The overall dividend ratio of A-shares in 2025 slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 44.9% Source: Wind, CICC Research Department Table 3: Dividend yield of dividend assets falls from previous highs Note: As of May 21, 2026 Source: Wind, CICC Research Department Table 4: The TTM dividend yield of the SSE 300 and the SSE 300 ex-financials remain higher than the yield of the 10-year treasury bond Note: As of May 21, 2026 Source: Wind, CICC Research Department Table 5: Most A-share industry dividend yields declined in 2025; banking, coal, household appliances, food and beverage, and petroleum and petrochemical industries have higher dividend yields Note: Excluding loss-making companies Source: Wind, CICC Research Department Table 6: Most A-share industries saw an increase in dividend ratios in 2025; consumer industries, communication, and coal industries have higher dividend ratios Note: Excluding loss-making companies Source: Wind, CICC Research Department Table 7: Industries with a centric increase in dividend ratios in recent years include food and beverage, textile and apparel, household appliances, computers, communication, and media Note: As of May 21, 2026; Excluding loss-making companies Source: Wind, CICC Research Department Table 8: Industries with a dividend yield greater than 2.6% and a dividend ratio greater than 57% in the first quadrant are relatively few Note: As of May 21, 2026; Excluding loss-making companies Source: Wind, CICC Research Department Table 9: Optimized high dividend strategy constructed since 2012 has an annualized return of 17%, outperforming the CSI Dividend Index by 517 percentage points Note: Data as of May 21, 2026 Source: Wind, CICC Research Department