285 billion dollars - this is the "Space AI Empire" super blueprint that SpaceX is presenting to Wall Street.

Global space exploration leader SpaceX's latest highly anticipated IPO prospectus shows that its self-assessed total potential market size (TAM) reaches an astonishing $28.5 trillion; if this so-called "space AI empire" blueprint is eventually realized, it will approach the entire output of the US economy. The company states in its IPO prospectus that it has identified "the largest executable total potential market prospects in human history," primarily driven by AI super software, and the contribution of the space sector should not be ignored. SpaceX also points out that, for "illustrative purposes in measuring our addressable potential market opportunities," the company has excluded certain countries in its global estimate system. This forecast of $28.5 trillion, compared to the nominal GDP of nearly $32 trillion for the US in the first quarter of 2026, is impressive; the estimated enterprise-side super application market around AI is $22.7 trillion, roughly equivalent to 70% of the total output of the US economy. In addition, if SpaceX, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), and xAI ultimately move towards deeper integration, then their narrative and valuation ceilings will be further raised; Wedbush senior analyst Dan Ives believes that SpaceX and Tesla, Inc. may merge in 2027. It is worth noting that these are not performance growth forecasts for the space technology giant, nor confirmed orders, nor valuations, but SpaceX is trying to prove to the capital market that they are more than just a rocket/satellite internet company but are packaging Starlink satellite chain systems, AI, potential space orbital AI computing infrastructure, enterprise software, and space solutions for defense or commercial sectors into a "super platform narrative of cross AI and space AI data centers." This TAM is extremely grand and belongs to long-term market space that will be contested, truly dependent on Starlink cash flow, commercialization of AI businesses, feasibility of orbital data center technology, launch costs, regulatory efficiency, and capital expenditure efficiency. The $28.5 trillion outlook does not only cover Elon Musk's repeatedly mentioned "space AI data center market size," but is SpaceX's self-calculated total addressable market (TAM) in the IPO document, with the vast majority coming from AI software/enterprise applications rather than space or space data centers. By its breakdown, the AI-related total is about $26.5 trillion, including AI enterprise applications $22.7 trillion, AI infrastructure $2.4 trillion, AI consumer subscriptions $760 billion, and AI digital advertising $600 billion; the true "space-enabled solutions" market is only $370 billion, with Starlink broadband and mobile totaling about $1.61 trillion. As the richest person in the world to date, Musk has accomplished what others thought impossible in the past - building commercially viable high-frequency rocket launch business through SpaceX, making electric vehicles mainstream through global leader Tesla, Inc., and providing internet connectivity infrastructure from space through Starlink. However, some investors doubt whether Musk can really build the "epic-level" chip manufacturing operations in Austin that he recently revealed and whether he can truly achieve his vision of "artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, and space AI data center super blueprint." The breakdown of SpaceX's $28.5 trillion super plan is as follows: AI enterprise-level super applications - $22.7 trillion AI computing infrastructure - $2.4 trillion Starlink satellite chain broadband system - $870 billion AI consumer subscription market - $760 billion Starlink mobile market - $740 billion AI digital advertising market - $600 billion Space-enabled solutions market - $370 billion SpaceX is not just selling space stories! $28.5 trillion TAM supports epic IPO narrative Overall, Musk has repackaged SpaceX into a "space AI computing infrastructure leader + satellite internet cash flow + AI application giant" triumvirate capital market story. From the prospectus perspective, SpaceX claims to have a TAM of $28.5 trillion, but about $26.5 trillion comes from AI-related markets; the true focus of this IPO valuation narrative has shifted from traditional commercial space to AI software, AI infrastructure, Starlink connectivity network, and future orbital computing power. In terms of financial structure, Starlink is currently the most reliable cash cow, while xAI is the biggest variable and capital black hole. Public disclosure shows that SpaceX had revenues of about $18.67 billion in 2025, with Starlink contributing over $11 billion; however, the company still recorded about $4.9 billion in losses, with capital expenditures of about $20.7 billion, which are further amplified by xAI after integration. The Verge reported that xAI had an operating loss of about $6.4 billion in 2025; Reuters also revealed that SpaceX's AI business had revenues of $818 million in the first quarter but recorded an operating loss of $2.5 billion. This means that while Starlink is indeed "generating," AI infrastructure construction is "bleeding" at a faster rate. Anthropic's monthly purchase of $1.25 billion in SpaceX/xAI computing power is the most crucial external validation in this narrative: if the contract continues until May 2029, the theoretical total amount could exceed $40 billion, enough to transform SpaceX from a "satellite internet company" to an AI infrastructure supplier. But the risks are also clear: Reuters, Business Insider, and TechCrunch have all mentioned that the agreement allows either party to terminate with a 90-day notice, and initial fees will adjust with computing power escalation; therefore, it cannot be simply viewed as a risk-free, certain long-term revenue stream. In terms of engineering, SpaceX's long-term vision comes from Starship, Starlink V3, ground Colossus/Colossus II data centers, and future orbital AI computing power. The logic is that Starship reduces launch costs, Starlink expands communication and data entry points, xAI/Colossus accommodates AI inference demands, and future attempts will use space-based CECEP Solar Energy and orbital heat dissipation to break through ground power/cooling constraints. However, the "orbital AI data center" remains a long-term technological option to date rather than a validated business model; what truly supports the short-term financial credibility of the IPO is Starlink user growth, broadband profit margins, Anthropic computing power contracts, and Starship commercialization timeline. "Three in One" will eventually come? Wedbush Securities senior analyst Dan Ives stated that the company continues to believe that SpaceX (SpaceX and xAI have previously merged) and another technology giant led by Musk - Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) will eventually merge into one company in 2027. He pointed out that the foundation for the two businesses to become one organization has already been laid. Importantly, after Tesla, Inc.'s $2 billion investment in xAI was converted into SpaceX shares following xAI's acquisition earlier this year, Tesla, Inc. actually holds shares in SpaceX. It is worth noting that recently SpaceX and Tesla, Inc. announced the joint construction of the Terafab chip manufacturing super factory, seen as a further connection of the two companies' businesses, making it more likely for them to achieve a business merger as the existing overlaps between them continue to increase; Musk himself recently stirred up the "Terafab" AI computing power storm, striving to end the chip shortage with a "human-made miracle." In a recent report, Ives stated: "Musk desires to own and control more parts of the AI ecosystem, and step by step, this Holy Grail alliance might in some way merge SpaceX and Tesla, Inc., providing a connective organization between the two disruptive technology giants hoping to lead the AI and computing infrastructure, energy revolution." The "Three in One" of Tesla, Inc., SpaceX, and xAI forms the "Musk super business empire," which may be the ultimate destiny of these three companies founded by Musk. As Musk recently made positive progress in areas such as space AI data centers, large-scale energy storage, artificial intelligence, fully autonomous driving (FSD), Robotaxi, and innovative "Optimus" humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, the world's richest man seems to be connecting "commercial space systems + satellite chain satellite communication + space AI computing system/AI large models + energy/storage + electric vehicles + autonomous driving + Siasun Robot & Automation manufacturing" into a "super vertically integrated asset chain" that can be financed and explained clearly in both the capital market and industrial side to leverage the lever. (Translated by AI, some minor editing for clarity may be required)