Well-known investment bank warned: highly bundling US stocks, the US economy has become an "AI leveraged gamble".

When artificial intelligence transitions from a narrative theme on Wall Street to the substantive engine of US economic growth, a deeper question is emerging: has the world's largest economy overly tied its fate to a rapidly evolving technology? On Wednesday, Peter Orszag, the CEO of the renowned investment bank Lazard, gave a sobering assessment in an interview: "The US economy has become a leveraged bet on the success of artificial intelligence." In Orszag's view, the source of growth in the US economy is highly concentrated on two interlocking pillars - artificial intelligence itself, and high-income consumers benefiting from the rise of AI-driven stock markets. The vulnerability of this growth chain lies in the fact that if the AI narrative falters, both engines may simultaneously stall. Data confirms: AI has become the absolute protagonist of economic growth The latest macroeconomic data powerfully confirms Orszag's observations. According to data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the annualized real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2026 was 2.0%. Bespoke Investment Group's analysis shows that software and IT equipment investments contributed 134 basis points to GDP growth in the quarter - meaning that technology infrastructure drove 67% of the first quarter's economic growth, breaking the previous record of approximately 10 basis points set in 1999 during the dot-com bubble. Kobeissi Letter boldly stated on social platform X: "Without AI-driven technology investments, first quarter GDP growth would have been close to zero." This concentration of growth is unsettling. In mid-May, Morgan Stanley's mid-year economic outlook for the US, titled "Capex Over Consumption," revealed a structural shift: the US economy is shifting from relying on consumption to relying on AI capital expenditure to support it. While businesses are ramping up their AI investments, consumer spending is gradually slowing down under pressure from rising oil prices and incomes. The bank predicts that non-residential business fixed investment will grow by 7% in 2026, accelerating to 8% in 2027, with Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle collectively likely to invest approximately $805 billion in capital expenditure in 2026; on the other hand, real US consumer spending growth is expected to decline from 2.1% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026, with the middle and low-income groups particularly hard hit by high oil prices. Former Trump administration AI advisor David Sacks hit the nail on the head in early May: "In the first quarter, AI accounted for 75% of GDP growth. This trend may continue. Technological leadership has always been a huge competitive advantage for the US, and now it's even more so - stopping AI progress would be tantamount to stopping the US economy." The double-edged sword of wealth effects: the fragility of stock market growth and consumption The "high-income consumers" mentioned by Orszag are the core force driving the other end of the US economy. These consumers do not gain purchasing power out of thin air - they are also beneficiaries of the rise of AI-driven stock markets. JPMorgan Chase previously estimated that AI stocks accounted for over 40% of the S&P 500 index's market value, and if their value were to fall by 10%, US household wealth would shrink by $2.7 trillion, leading to a decrease in consumer spending of approximately $95 billion. Barclays Bank's analysis indicates that AI directly contributes nearly 1% to US GDP growth and supports consumption by boosting tech stock valuations, forming an "economic dual engine." However, the structural imbalance of this dual engine is becoming increasingly apparent. Cresset Capital's research shows that the top 10% of US income earners currently account for nearly half of consumer spending, while the top 20% of households hold about 70% of financial assets. In the 80% of middle- and low-income groups, issues such as slowing actual spending, depleted savings, and rising default rates on loans are becoming more pronounced. An economy driven by a few high-income earners and tech giants, with its inherent fragility, is self-evident. The "rapid massive impact" on the labor market If the concentration of economic growth is the first concern for Orszag, his warning about the labor market points to deeper structural risks. Orszag explicitly warns in the interview that the economy may face resistance as businesses and employees adapt to the changes brought about by AI. He describes the current situation as a potential "rapid, large-scale impact," noting that "the labor market can cope well with rapid small impacts or slow large impacts - but this could be a rapid large impact." Behind this warning is a wave of AI-related layoffs that is accelerating. According to Noor Trends statistics, as of mid-May 2026, over 113,000 employees at over 179 companies have been laid off in AI-driven restructuring, a third larger than the same period in 2025. This wave has spread from the tech industry to banking, healthcare, logistics, energy, retail, and other sectors, with corporate management increasingly openly positioning AI as a substitute for large-scale manual labor, rather than just a productivity tool. The banking sector is particularly hard hit by this wave of impact. Just the day before Orszag made his comments, Standard Chartered Bank Group CEO Bill Winters announced a plan that shook the global financial industry: to cut over 15% of corporate functions and back-office positions by 2030, affecting nearly 8,000 jobs. The bank has around 82,000 employees globally, with over 52,000 in back-office roles, and the layoffs will mainly focus on functions such as human resources, risk management, compliance, operations, and technical support. Winters bluntly stated that the core DRIVE of this move is AI and automation, with the goal being to replace low-value human capital with financial and investment capital in certain areas. He explicitly stated, "We are not cutting jobs, but we are indeed reducing the number of positions to make way for machines, a trend that will accelerate with the advancement of artificial intelligence." Standard Chartered is not alone. HSBC CEO Georges Elhedery also publicly stated at the same time that AI will "destroy some jobs and create new ones," with the bank considering an AI-driven restructuring plan that could affect approximately 20,000 positions. CitiGroup continues its plan to lay off 20,000 employees globally in 2026, and Morgan Stanley estimates that the banking, tech, and professional services industries have cut about a fifth of their workforce in the past year due to AI. Goldman Sachs President and COO John Waldron even likened Goldman Sachs to a "human assembly line," stating that "digital agents will become our Siasun Robot & Automation," and revealed that Goldman Sachs is expanding its business through AI without the need to increase hiring. In line with Orszag's "rapid massive impact" characterization, the World Economic Forum's 2026 Chief Economists Outlook shows that two-thirds of chief economists expect AI to cause moderate unemployment in the next two years, but over a ten-year horizon, 57% of respondents expect net job losses from AI, with only about a third anticipating that AI-driven job creation will exceed losses. The report also shows that 97% of the surveyed economists expect AI to have a "significant impact" on US economic growth - a proportion far higher than any other major economy. Orszag's warning: a bet worth placing? Although Orszag expresses deep concerns about the US economy's over-reliance on AI, he does not completely deny the direction. He stated in the interview, "Like many bets, it may succeed or it may fail, but it's a bet worth placing." The brilliance of this statement lies in its acknowledgment of both the substantial risks and the correctness of the direction. Looking at a longer timeframe, Lombard Odier predicts that AI will increase the US average annual productivity growth rate from 1.60% to 1.85% over the next decade, while the annualized real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2026 was 2%, but there is a stark contrast between the softness of the labor market and the "slowing employment growth." AI has become a factual pillar of the US economy - contributing two-thirds of GDP growth, driving billions of dollars in capital expenditure, and boosting M&A activity across the utility sector. At the same time, from Wall Street investment banks to multinational banks, layoff plans are accelerating, and the consumption divide between high-income earners and middle- and low-income earners is deepening. Orszag's warning is not fundamentally a denial of the prospects of AI technology, but a caution about concentration. An economic growth supported by the capital expenditure of a few tech giants and the wealth effects of a few high-income consumers, an industrial chain highly dependent on the continued prosperity of the AI narrative - when any part experiences an expected deviation, feedback effects could rapidly and severely amplify. Orszag's metaphor of a "leveraged bet" precisely captures the duality of this historical moment: the US economy is betting heavily on the success of a technology with unprecedented concentration, and the leverage, whether in financial or economic terms, is the sharp expansion of risk exposure.