India Faces Severe Cooking Gas Deficit as Geopolitical Tensions Squeeze Middle East Imports

India, the world's third-largest consumer of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), is experiencing a severe deficit of approximately 400,000 barrels of cooking gas daily relative to volumes recorded prior to the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Analytical data indicates that overseas procurement fell to 377,620 barrels per day in April, representing less than half of the 851,870 barrels per day imported in February. Although domestic extraction expanded by roughly 75,000 barrels per day to reach a daily volume of 530,000 barrels in April, internal production capabilities are currently operating near peak capacity. Consequently, the domestic supply deficit is projected to endure until international procurement fully stabilizes.

In response to the supply pressures following the onset of the US-Iran hostilities, regulatory authorities implemented a price increase of 60 rupees for standard 14.2-kilogram residential gas cylinders. This fiscal adjustment contributed to a contraction in consumer demand, with LPG sales declining by 13% in March and 12.7% in April on a year-on-year basis, culminating in an aggregate volume of 2.19 million tonnes. Despite the downturn, daily distribution remained substantial, averaging over 846,000 cylinders. To alleviate public anxiety, the government announced that national reserves of LPG are adequate to sustain demand for 45 days, while crude oil and natural gas stockpiles can support operations for 60 days.

Historically, India depends on external markets to satisfy approximately two-thirds of its domestic LPG requirements. Current supply disruptions extend beyond the strategic vulnerabilities of the Strait of Hormuz, as regional conflict has directly compromised energy infrastructure across primary Middle Eastern suppliers, including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Cumulative imports from these four nations plummeted by an estimated 75% between February and April, dropping to 173,000 barrels per day. To mitigate this dependency, India has diversified its import portfolio to include non-traditional partners such as Iran, Australia, Argentina, and Chile. While procurement from these alternative origins grew from negligible levels to 43,000 barrels per day in April, the volume remains insufficient to compensate for the lost Middle Eastern capacity. Furthermore, these long-haul shipping routes impose severe logistical delays, requiring up to 45 days from the Americas compared to a transit window of under a week from the Persian Gulf.

To address the immediate shortfall, the state is promoting structural transitions toward domestic natural gas pipelines and alternative cooking appliances, driving a significant increase in electric stove sales. Domestic natural gas production expanded by 7% from February levels, though liquefied natural gas imports remained stagnant. While infrastructure expansion yielded over half a million new residential pipeline connections, the network reaches only a fraction of the 330 million households nationwide that depend on traditional gas cylinders. The persistent supply constraints have ultimately driven up commercial energy costs, with the price of commercial cylinders surging by 993 rupees, elevating the baseline cost above 3,000 rupees in major urban centers.