Overnight US stocks | Trump said that negotiations between the US and Iran have entered the final stage, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has returned to the 50,000 point mark. NVIDIA Corporation's Q1 financial report exceeded expectations, but its stock still fell by 1.6% after hours.
The Dow rose 645.47 points, up 1.31%, to 50009.35 points; the Nasdaq rose 399.65 points, up 1.54%, to 26270.36 points; the S&P 500 index rose 79.31 points, up 1.08%, to 7432.92 points.
On Wednesday, the three major indexes rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average re-crossing the 50,000-point mark. U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on the nuclear issue have entered the "final stage," but if Iran refuses to reach an agreement, the U.S. does not rule out taking military action against Iran again, and may even launch a larger-scale attack. NVIDIA Corporation's 01 financial report exceeded expectations, but its stock price still fell 1.6% after hours.
U.S. Stocks The Dow rose 645.47 points, or 1.31%, to 50,009.35 points; the Nasdaq rose 399.65 points, or 1.54%, to 26,270.36 points; the S&P 500 Index rose 79.31 points, or 1.08%, to 7,432.92 points. Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) rose 4.7%, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) rose 1%, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose 3%, Intel Corporation (INTC.US) rose 7%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.4%.
European Stocks The Germany DAX30 Index rose 313.83 points, or 1.28%, to 24,742.00 points; the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 103.66 points, or 1.00%, to 10,434.21 points; the France CAC40 Index rose 135.66 points, or 1.70%, to 8,117.42 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose 120.94 points, or 2.07%, to 5,973.90 points; the Spain IBEX35 Index rose 382.95 points, or 2.17%, to 18,053.05 points; the Italy FTSE MIB Index rose 826.61 points, or 1.71%, to 49,181.50 points.
Asian Stocks The Nikkei 225 Index fell 1.23%, the Korean Composite Stock Price Index fell 0.86%, the India Sensex Index rose 0.16%, and the Straits Times Index fell 0.54%.
U.S. Dollar Index The U.S. Dollar Index measuring the dollar against six major currencies fell 0.24% to close at 99.090 in the currency market. By the end of the New York currency market, 1 euro was exchanged for 1.1631 U.S. dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.1604 U.S. dollars; 1 pound was exchanged for 1.3442 U.S. dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.3397 U.S. dollars. 1 U.S. dollar was exchanged for 158.84 yen, lower than the previous trading day's 159.06 yen; 1 U.S. dollar was exchanged for 0.7868 Swiss francs, lower than the previous trading day's 0.7892 Swiss francs; 1 U.S. dollar was exchanged for 1.3749 Canadian dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.3750 Canadian dollars; 1 U.S. dollar was exchanged for 9.3324 Swedish kronor, lower than the previous trading day's 9.4055 Swedish kronor.
Cryptocurrency Bitcoin hovered around $77,384.85, trading at $77,384.85; Ethereum fluctuated slightly, trading at $2,106.33.
Crude Oil New York Mercantile Exchange's light crude oil futures for July delivery fell $5.89 to close at $98.26 per barrel, a decrease of 5.66%; London Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell $6.26 to close at $105.02 per barrel, a decrease of 5.63%.
Precious Metals Spot gold rose back above $4500, trading at $4,543.92 per ounce; spot silver traded at $75.893 per ounce.
Macro News
The Federal Reserve warns of upward risks to inflation. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that staff expectations for economic activity were slightly stronger than at the March meeting. It is expected that actual GDP growth in the coming years will be slightly higher than potential growth. The unemployment rate is expected to approach the staff's estimate of its long-term level for the next two years, slightly below this level by around 2028. Staff inflation forecasts for this year are higher than at the March meeting, due to the latest data, higher energy prices, and other Middle Eastern conflicts expected to boost consumer price inflation. It is expected that after the first half of this year, as various conflict-related factors gradually fade from the economy, and the transmission of higher tariffs to inflation weakens, inflation will begin to slow down; inflation is expected to be close to 2% by the end of next year. Overall, the risks to employment and actual GDP growth forecasts are biased downward, while inflation forecasts are biased upward: inflation has been significantly above 2% for the past five years, and the Middle East conflict could further push up inflation, while some categories not related to tariffs or energy prices are starting to show new price pressures. Therefore, staff believe that the possibility of inflation lasting longer than expected is a risk worth focusing on.
Federal Reserve meeting minutes: Current policy stance may need to be maintained longer than expected. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that participants generally believed that the continued high level of inflation and the uncertainty surrounding the duration and economic impact of the Middle East conflict could mean that the current policy stance needs to be maintained longer than expected. Some participants emphasized that it may be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate target range once there are clear signs that the downward trend in inflation has stabilized, or if there are indications of a weaker labor market. However, most participants noted that if the inflation rate remains above 2%, there may be a need for some tightening measures. To address this situation, many participants expressed a desire to remove language from the post-meeting statement that implies the Committee's future rate decisions could tend toward easing. Participants noted that monetary policy is not set in stone, and future policy decisions will be based on the specific circumstances of each meeting.
Morgan Stanley: AI M&A wave showing "full spectrum" development trend. Wally Cheng, global technology M&A manager at Morgan Stanley, stated that as businesses rush to fill technology gaps in areas such as chips, power, networks, and infrastructure, mergers and acquisitions in the field of artificial intelligence are covering various scales and extending to multiple industries. Cheng stated, "I believe that transaction activity will cover the full spectrum, including private and public companies." While semiconductors that provide computational power for AI are highly valued for their "technological wonders," infrastructure surrounding these chips also holds great value, including networks, storage, power, and real estate. Cheng said that valuing the AI industry remains "extremely challenging" as a balance must be struck between the "unicorn with rainbow-like prospects full of imagination" and the risks of actual execution. Tammy Kiely, senior managing director of Evercore's technology investment banking business, expressed similar views. She stated that potential acquirers must evaluate the potential value they can create and weigh the cost of missed opportunities.
Sources: The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates in June but July situation remains uncertain. Four sources revealed that the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates in June, but the bank is cautious about taking further action in the future to suppress market expectations of swift follow-up actions in July. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates in April, but internally discussed whether to raise rates, hinting that action may be taken in June as energy costs remain high. Sources said that the inflation outlook is currently moving in the direction of the bank's envisioned "deteriorating situation," and there are no signs of easing tensions in Iran, so the bank must take action at the next meeting. As price increases have reached 3%, well above the 2% target, and after signaling a policy adjustment, the bank also needs to maintain its credibility. They added, "Even if a peaceful agreement is reached before the meeting, there is no guarantee that the agreement will remain effective, and energy prices will remain high for some time as it takes time for the market to return to normal." However, further rate hikes are not urgent as current price pressures are much milder than in 2022, and the follow-up effects of this price surge have not yet materialized. Various factors suggest that the bank may be able to postpone its July plans and make new forecasts in September unless there is a significant deterioration in the inflation outlook.
Lazard CEO: The U.S. economy has become a "gamble on artificial intelligence." Peter Orszag, CEO of Lakeland Bancorp, Inc., stated that the development of artificial intelligence and its boost to the stock market means that the U.S. economy has essentially become a "leveraged bet on the success of artificial intelligence." Orszag said, "If you look at the sources of U.S. economic growth, you'll find that it comes from artificial intelligence and high-income consumers," who also benefit from the stock market rise driven by artificial intelligence. He said, "At this stage, the U.S. economy is a leveraged trade on AI. Like many bets, it could succeed or fail, but it's a good bet worth betting on." Orszag warned that as businesses and labor adapt to the changes brought about by AI, the economy may face resistance: "The labor market can adapt well to 'rapid small shocks' or 'slow large shocks'but this may be a 'rapid large shock.'"
Individual Stock News
NVIDIA Corporation's $800 billion stock buyback, revenue and guidance exceed expectations, but the stock price still falls. After hours on Wednesday, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) released its financial report, with revenue for the first quarter of the 2027 fiscal year at $81.6 billion, exceeding market expectations of $78.672 billion, and data center business revenue at $75.2 billion, compared to expectations of $72.8 billion. NVIDIA Corporation also announced an $800 billion stock buyback plan and will increase its quarterly cash dividend from $0.01 per share to $0.25 per share. In addition, NVIDIA Corporation's spending in data centers (the company's main source of revenue) has not shown signs of slowing down. NVIDIA Corporation expects second-quarter revenue to be $91 billion (plus or minus 2%), with the median market expectation at $86.788 billion, although the forecast value once reached $96 billion. This outlook disappoints investors who are used to NVIDIA Corporation consistently exceeding expectations. The company's dominant position in the field of AI computing is also facing its first significant challenge as many chip manufacturers are trying to get a piece of the pie. After the earnings were announced, NVIDIA Corporation's after-hours trading fell by about 3%, but then narrowed to break-even.
SpaceX formally submits IPO application, undisclosed offering size and valuation. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) CEO Musk's SpaceX announced plans for the largest IPO in history, fully disclosing the financial details of the company, which covers rocket launches, satellite broadband, and AI business. According to the prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday, the company reported sales of $4.7 billion for the first three months of this year, with operating losses of $1.9 billion. Musk will have 85.1% of voting rights after the IPO. The company also plans to conduct mining operations on near-Earth asteroids. The document also shows that Anthropic will pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month by May 2029. Although the offering size and proposed valuation have not been disclosed, media reports have previously discussed raising approximately $75 billion with a valuation of $17.5 trillion. SpaceX will be listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX.
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