AK MEDICAL (01789): The target price of Bao Tong is just one step away, can Beishui become the "life-saving straw"?

In late March to early April of this year, benefiting from financial report disclosure and signals of industry recovery, AK MEDICAL (01789) saw a nice rally in its stock price, reaching a interim high of 7.15 Hong Kong dollars on April 13 under the assistance of "six consecutive days of gains". However, after reaching the high, AK MEDICAL's stock price did not continue to rise, but instead chose to have a technical correction along with the healthcare sector of the Hong Kong stock market. Observing that in the past month, the healthcare sector of the Hong Kong stock market has had a clear correction, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index showing a maximum decline of 17.21% within that period. During the same period, AK MEDICAL's stock price also experienced a maximum decline of 17.62%. This performance is not good news for AK MEDICAL, which is already on the verge of being delisted. Formally beginning the last month of "maintaining listing qualification", In fact, as early as the second half of last year, AK MEDICAL had been hovering on the brink of being delisted, but at that time the market performance was much better than now. After the mid-year report was disclosed last year, AK MEDICAL started a period of about 3 months of sideways trading. From August 29 to November 25 last year, its stock price only increased by 0.36% within that period. During this time, buying funds suppressed the stock price with partial chips, while also absorbing selling pressure chips, locking most of the chips in the absorption zone, and the average cost of the chips in the market remained around 6 Hong Kong dollars. And because the chips in the market were highly concentrated at that time, it kept the fluctuation of the stock price at a fairly low level from a technical perspective, becoming a key factor in AK MEDICAL's maintaining listing qualification in the second half of last year. However, this year, AK MEDICAL's pressure to maintain listing qualification is greater than in the second half of last year. Firstly, the threshold for the Hong Kong Stock Connect has been continuously increasing in recent years. Compared to the threshold of around 6 billion Hong Kong dollars last year, this year's threshold has risen to around 6.5 billion Hong Kong dollars. As of May 20, the threshold for the Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 67.13 billion Hong Kong dollars. In this context, the continuous decline in stock price is undoubtedly a dangerous signal for a Hong Kong Stock Connect company. According to data, the Hang Seng Index and the next round of regular adjustments for the Hong Kong Stock Connect will be in June this year, with the results announced on August 25 and the review period from July 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026. Currently, the average daily market capitalization of AK MEDICAL within this review period is 67.77 billion Hong Kong dollars, which is only 0.64 billion Hong Kong dollars higher than the current market value threshold of 67.13 billion Hong Kong dollars, with a market value coverage rate of 95.95%. Considering that it is already late May, there are only over 40 days left until the end of the latest round of inspection for the Hong Kong Stock Connect. Based on the above-mentioned listing qualification market value, AK MEDICAL needs to maintain a daily closing price of 5.95 Hong Kong dollars in the remaining days of this inspection period in order to maintain listing qualification. However, on May 20, the lowest point of the company's stock price had already fallen to 5.89 Hong Kong dollars. In the current downward trend of the stock price, AK MEDICAL is facing significant pressure to maintain listing qualification in this round.