Global tightening "clock" is ticking faster? Expectations for rate hikes in benchmark central banks Sweden and Norway to advance to within this year.

A survey has shown that the Swedish central bank may raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points in the last quarter of this year, earlier than previously expected. Economists surveyed from May 11 to 13 believe that the Swedish central bank will raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 2% by the end of the year, while they had previously expected this measure to be implemented in the first quarter of next year. The new forecast brings economists closer to market expectations, with overnight index swap traders expecting a 25 basis point rate hike in September's meeting. The latest meeting minutes from the Swedish central bank show that although central bank governor Stefan Ingves and other policymakers are currently keeping borrowing costs unchanged at 1.75%, there is still more disagreement on the risks of future inflation. Another survey shows that policymakers in neighboring Norway will raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% in the third quarter and maintain it at that level until the second quarter of next year with an equal reduction. In contrast, the previous survey predicted that the deposit rate of the Norwegian central bank would remain at 4.25% until the second quarter of 2027. It is worth noting that historically, the "first domino" of global monetary policy shifts often falls in the Nordic region. Sweden and Norway are both open small economy countries highly dependent on international trade, with a sensitivity to global energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and fluctuations in external demand far exceeding that of large economies. This means that when external shocks occur, their inflation data and policy responses often lead one to two quarters ahead of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, naturally becoming "leading indicators" in global capital markets.