OPEC lowers this year's oil demand expectations, but supply shocks are pushing Brent oil closer to $106.

On Thursday, the International Energy Agency issued a warning of increased volatility, while OPEC lowered its demand forecast for this year, leading to an increase in oil prices. The international benchmark Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose by 0.34% to $105.99 per barrel, while the US WTI crude oil futures for June delivery rose by 0.43% to $101.45 per barrel. In its latest monthly report, OPEC reduced its forecast for oil demand growth in 2026 from the previous 1.4 million barrels per day to around 1.2 million barrels per day. OPEC's oil output fell by 1.7 million barrels per day in April, with a total decline of over 30% since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February, reaching 9.7 million barrels per day. It is expected that the latest data released by OPEC will be the last to include data from the UAE, which withdrew from the organization on May 1. The International Energy Agency also emphasized the impact of the Iran war on oil supply on Wednesday. The International Energy Agency stated: "More than ten weeks after the outbreak of the Middle East war, the loss of oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz is worsening at a record pace, rapidly depleting global oil inventories." The International Energy Agency stated that with a reduction in supply of over 14 million barrels per day, the total losses for Gulf producers have now exceeded 1 billion barrels, and added that as peak summer demand approaches, price fluctuations may intensify. Analysts at Dutch international group stated in a report, "The duration of high fuel prices remains a hot topic, closely related to the ongoing geopolitical situation caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential damage to oil and gas infrastructure from further conflicts in the Middle East." The US Energy Information Administration published the most pessimistic systematic forecast among the three agencies, directly cutting the demand growth forecast for 2026 in half. The US government's energy statistics department predicts that global oil inventories will be consumed at an extraordinary rate of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, and expects Brent crude oil prices to remain around $106 per barrel in May and June.