Sealand: First coverage of XIMEI RESOURCES (09936) with a "buy" rating. Integration layout resonates with high terminal prosperity.
In the future, the price trend of tantalum-niobium will no longer be solely determined by fundamentals. Administrative interventions and expectations of government purchases and storage will become key factors affecting prices, with premiums possibly rising further.
Sealand released a research report stating that it is expected that XIMEI RESOURCES (09936) will have revenues of 30.13, 37.53, and 48.40 billion yuan respectively from 2026 to 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 25%, and 29%; net profits attributable to the parent company will be 3.53, 4.52, and 5.87 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 106%, 28%, and 30%, corresponding to PEs of 12.13/9.47/7.30X. Considering the high maintenance of tantalum prices, continuous improvement in profit structure, and sufficient profit potential in overseas markets, the company's overall profit has strong upward elasticity. In the first coverage, it is rated "buy".
Sealand's main points are as follows:
Continued validation of high terminal prosperity, tantalum-niobium tracks potential fully demonstrated
1) Tantalum: The lack of supply resilience combined with strong demand growth has led to a mismatch in supply and demand, catalyzing the upward trend in prices. Terminal consumption is mainly focused on sputtering targets, capacitors, and high-temperature alloys. Semiconductors: with sputtering targets as the core, widely used in the manufacturing of high-end semiconductor chips. With the continuous outbreak of demand for artificial intelligence computing power, global AI infrastructure investment continues to increase, with the capital expenditures of the top five cloud companies in North America expected to increase to $729.5 billion in 2026, a year-on-year growth rate of over 60%, driving continuous high demand for high-end tantalum sputtering targets. Capacitors: Tantalum capacitors, with advantages such as high reliability, low leakage current, and long life, steadily hold a high market share in high-end capacitors. Downstream, benefiting deeply from the dual drive of AI servers and new energy vehicles, the penetration rate of key components such as computing power hardware power management, on-board electronics, and battery management systems continues to increase, with strong rigidity and high growth in industry demand. High-temperature alloys: the industry's prosperity continues to rise, with the industrialization of commercial aerospace, gas turbines speeding up, and steady expansion of military demand supported by a continuous increase in demand for tantalum in high-temperature alloys, providing solid fundamental support for tantalum consumption.
2) Niobium: Accelerated penetration of emerging applications, demand faces a window of high elasticity growth. In the non-steel field, superconductors and optical communication are promising. Superconductors: Niobium materials are prominent in the non-steel field, with niobium for superconductors mainly covering particle accelerator systems, superconducting magnets, and nuclear fusion devices. The industry's growth prospects are clear, with future demand expected to maintain a growth rate of over 30%. Optical communication: Lithium niobate thin film, as a new generation of core material for photonic integration, with outstanding optoelectronic performance, deeply empowers the industrial transformation of optical modules, optical engines, and photon calculati...
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