Guotai Haitong: Global power investment logic shifts towards system capacity expansion, optimistic about base load energy/power grid/new energy storage.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the global power investment logic is shifting from "efficiency-driven" to "safety-driven," focusing on the expansion of system capacity and being optimistic about base load energy/power grids/new energy storage. 1) Base load power sources. Stable output-capable base load power sources are expected to undergo systemic repricing and valuation, with optimism for nuclear power and its industrial chain/natural gas power generation and its industrial chain/coal and thermal power, etc.; 2) Power grids. Global power grid investments are escalating along with summer power shortages, and new power infrastructure investments are expected to increase, with optimism for transformers/high-voltage switches/smart grids/AIDC power supplies/cables, etc.; 3) New energy storage. From upgrading with new energy support to electrical safety assets, there is optimism for energy base pairing storage/commercial and industrial storage/household storage. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: The global energy system is moving towards "power dominance," but mismatches are intensifying. The bank believes that the electrification process is advancing, coupled with the continuous high load demand brought by AI and extreme temperatures driven by climate change, electricity demand is no longer simply following economic growth, but showing a structural feature of "rising base load + amplification of peak load." Electricity's share in end-use energy consumption continues to rise, becoming the core carrier for nearly all new energy demand. However, the power supply and investment system remains in an old paradigm, and traditional adjustable power sources are shrinking under decarbonization pressure, leading to increased fragility of the global power system. Price mechanisms' ability to adjust supply and demand is starting to weaken, and power shortages are not just a problem for the US alone, but have evolved into a significant global risk that is difficult to ignore in the global power system. Geopolitical disturbances in energy supply combined with summer power demand logic may have a greater impact than expected. The bank believes that the market is currently only measuring the energy supply problems caused by geopolitics and has not truly realized the risks brought by the summer peak in global power demand. The impact of the summer peak in global demand caused by climate change has already put pressure on the global power system by 2025. The stability of energy supply caused by geopolitics is declining, and there is a severe shortage in the supply of important base load energy natural gas, forcing the reinforcement of substitution relationships between energy sources and the gradual trend of coal-to-gas transition. The global energy system has shifted from "supply-demand balance" to "supply uncertainty dominance." Once high temperatures and high loads are combined, any marginal disturbance could be amplified into an actual constraint on the power system, further driving up price fluctuations and exacerbating the risk of power shortages. Global power shortages could reshape the global energy investment framework. The bank believes that the global energy system is undergoing a systemic restructuring from being "efficiency-driven" to "safety-driven." Correspondingly, energy policies in various countries may shift from efficiency and environmental protection to energy security and stability; and with the restructuring of the global power investment logic, future investment focus may shift towards "system capacity expansion" to ensure "ensuring system reliability," which may lead to systematic reassessment of assets related to power grids, energy storage, and base load power sources; finally, base load power sources with stable output capabilities may be redefined as "strategic resources," with nuclear power as a long-term focus, natural gas as a short-to-medium-term primary addition, and coal returning as a short-to-medium-term energy ballast. Risk warning: Geopolitical risks, global macroeconomic risks, energy market reform risks.