Soochow: Maintains "buy" rating for Sinotruk Jinan Truck (03808), Continued leadership in heavy-duty trucks prominently displayed.

Soochow released a research report stating that due to the strong export profitability performance and continuous optimization of product structure of Sinotruk Jinan Truck (03808), the forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-2027 has been raised to 88.0/106.1 billion yuan (previously 80.89/88.55 billion yuan), with a forecast of 125.4 billion yuan for 2028, corresponding to earnings per share of 3.19/3.84/4.54 yuan for 2026-2028, and corresponding PE valuations of 12.31/10.21/8.64 times, maintaining a "buy" rating. Soochow's main points are as follows: Financial Summary The company released its 2025 annual report, with revenue of 58.66 billion yuan in 25H2, increasing by +26.9% year-on-year and +15.3% quarter-on-quarter; net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.59 billion yuan, increasing by +40.1% year-on-year and +4.8% quarter-on-quarter, showing strong profit performance and overall improvement in operating momentum. Slight fluctuations in cost rates, increase in net profit margin In 25H2, the gross profit margin was 15.1%, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% and no change quarter-on-quarter; sales/management expense ratios were 4.3%/4.7%, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and -1.0%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.8% and 0.1%; net profit margin was 6.1%, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, maintaining a stable profit level under expanding revenue scale. Increase in both sales volume and price of heavy-duty trucks, improvement in profit margin In 25H2, the company's revenue from heavy-duty trucks and engines was 524.8 billion yuan, increasing by +26.3% year-on-year and +18.8% quarter-on-quarter. In terms of volume, the company sold 156,000 heavy-duty trucks in 25H2, increasing by +31.4% year-on-year and +14.0% quarter-on-quarter, with domestic sales of 71,000 units, increasing by +35.0% year-on-year and +5.5% quarter-on-quarter, and export sales of 84,000 units, increasing by +28.6% year-on-year and +22.3% quarter-on-quarter. In terms of price, the average selling price of heavy-duty trucks in 25H2 was 337,000 yuan, decreasing by -3.8% year-on-year and increasing by +4.2% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price in China was 397,000 yuan, an increase ... The outlook: Seize opportunities in the international market with strong product competitiveness, continuously optimize and enhance the company's competitiveness in domestic and overseas markets With the overall improvement in macroeconomic conditions, the recovery in heavy truck demand in the logistics sector, and the strong momentum in exports, the recovery in the heavy truck industry is evident. The company will seize opportunities in the international market, increase market share in high-end markets such as the Middle East and Latin America, establish competitive advantages in high-end segments dominated by European and American brands, focus on niche markets such as gas vehicles and large horsepower, accelerate product optimization and upgrading, drive continuous growth in production and sales volume, and further improve profitability. Risk warning: Unexpected fluctuations in macroeconomic conditions domestically and internationally; Unexpected increase in upstream raw material prices.