UBS Group AG: Macau's daily gambling revenue slowed down after the May Day Golden Week, with a preference for Wynn Macau (01128) and MGM China Holdings (MLCO.US).

UBS Group AG has released a research report maintaining a "buy" rating on WYNN MACAU (01128) and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd. Sponsored ADR (MLCO.US), ranking them as industry top picks. According to their channel checks, Macau's average daily gaming revenue for the first ten days of May (including the May Day Golden Week) was approximately 780 million Macau Patacas, flat compared to the same period last year, mainly due to lower win rates in the VIP rooms. If calculated with a theoretical VIP room win rate of 3% to 3.3%, UBS Group AG estimates the daily gaming revenue to reach 850 million to 900 million Macau Patacas, representing a year-on-year growth of 10% to 15%. Specifically, mass market gaming revenue increased by 17% to 20% month-on-month, VIP room gaming volume increased by 18% to 22% month-on-month, but the actual win rate in VIP rooms was only 2% to 2.3%. The bank pointed out that the market expects the remaining 21 days of May to have an average daily gaming revenue of around 701 million Macau Patacas in order to achieve the market's expected overall daily gaming revenue of approximately 727 million Macau Patacas, a year-on-year growth of 6.3%. Currently, the valuation of Macau gaming stocks is equivalent to an enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of approximately 8.3 times for 2026 forecasts, lower than the two-year average by 0.75 standard deviations.