AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) stock price plunges more than 10% after hours: Q1 revenue and profit are far below expectations, full-year financial forecast remains the only consolation.

After the US stock market closed on Monday, satellite communications company AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) released a disappointing first-quarter financial report, causing the stock price to plummet by over 10% in after-hours trading. Revenue was dismal, with losses exceeding expectations The financial report revealed that AST SpaceMobile achieved revenue of only $14.73 million in the first quarter, a significant increase from the $0.718 million in the same period last year, but far below Wall Street's expectation of $39 million. The net loss attributable to shareholders for the quarter reached $191 million, compared to a loss of $45.7 million in the same period last year. Analysts had previously expected a loss of $86.8 million. The loss per share was recorded at $0.66, compared to a loss per share of $0.20 in the previous year, with market expectations at a loss of $0.24 per share. The significant increase in operating expenses was a major driver of the widening losses, with the company's total operating expenses in the first quarter rising to $164.1 million, mainly due to a significant increase in engineering services and administrative expenses. Full-year forecasts remain unchanged, providing some comfort amid disappointing financial results Aside from the disappointing performance, AST SpaceMobile maintained its full-year revenue guidance for 2026 between $150 million to $200 million, providing some consolation in the market. Currently, Wall Street's forecast for full-year revenue is around $181 million. The company stated that approximately half of the projected revenue will come from existing contracts signed with mobile network operator partners and the US government. Wall Street currently expects AST SpaceMobile to achieve profitability in 2028, with estimated annual revenue reaching $1.6 billion at that time. AST SpaceMobile previously disclosed that as of the end of March, its contract order backlog had exceeded $1.2 billion, but the latest financial report did not disclose updated order backlog data. As of the end of the first quarter, the company held approximately $3.5 billion in cash reserves, with no immediate funding concerns. Analysts predict that AST SpaceMobile will consume approximately $1.6 billion and $800 million in cash in 2026 and 2027, respectively, before achieving positive free cash flow by 2028. Technological breakthroughs and deployment acceleration in tandem AST SpaceMobile is building what it calls the "world's first and only space cellular broadband network." In terms of technology, the company announced that its earlier launched Block 1 BlueBird satellite achieved a peak download speed of 98.9 Mbps over the open sea and expects the currently orbiting Block 2 satellites to nearly double this speed. In terms of deployment, the company reiterated its grand goal of completing 45 satellites in orbit by the end of this year to provide initial continuous coverage in target markets such as the US and Japan. To achieve this goal, the pace of subsequent launches is crucial. The company announced that three satellites (BlueBird 8, 9, 10) are expected to launch into orbit in mid-June aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket; with over 20 more spacecraft (Satellites 11-33) in the late stage of assembly. However, Blue Origin, a company the company is cooperating with, failed to put BlueBird 7 into the correct orbit last month, raising concerns for future high-density launches. Additionally, the Federal Communications Commission has granted the company supplemental coverage authorization, allowing it to utilize planned 248 satellites to provide commercial services within the US, removing key regulatory barriers. Market patience tested under high valuation In the past 12 months, AST SpaceMobile's stock price has more than doubled, and its market value has soared to around $32 billion. However, the impressive stock price performance contrasts sharply with its current lack of significant commercial revenue, leading some to label it a "meme stock." Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu pointed out in a research report that the execution of the 2026 launch plan is crucial for AST SpaceMobile. Failure to accelerate launch pace this year will raise doubts about its strength among investors and raise concerns that mobile network operator partners may be shaken, leading to potential cooperation abandonment. If the company strictly adheres to the schedule, it may seize a "healthy share" in the booming satellite direct-to-device market. However, facing over 10,000 SpaceX Starlink satellites in orbit and millions of users, as well as competition from Amazon.com, Inc. which acquired Globalstar, Inc. (GSAT.US) for spectrum resources, AST SpaceMobile is facing increasingly fierce competition.