Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all fell together, and the U.S. stock market bull market faced a stress test this week.

Pre-market Market Trends 1. Before the market on May 11th (Monday), US stocks fell in pre-market trading, with futures for the three major stock indexes all declining. As of writing, Dow Jones futures were down 0.15%, S&P 500 index futures were down 0.16%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.12%. 2. As of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.37%, the UK's FTSE 100 index was up 0.00%, the French CAC 40 index was down 1.15%, and the European Stoxx 50 index was down 0.61%. 3. As of writing, WTI crude oil was up 3.28% at $98.55 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 3.03% at $104.36 per barrel. Market News US stocks face a crucial week at highs: Trump's visit to China imminent, Powell facing farewell amidst inflation "overheating", and a historic bull market facing a pressure test. US stocks are at historical highs, and the recent strong performance continues to make investors completely forget their worries at the beginning of the year. This week, the schedule is shifting from a busy earnings season back to important inflation data releases. Following data showing stable employment conditions last week, inflation data quickly overshadowed concerns about the labor market. The headline news on Tuesday is the April CPI. Due to energy shocks, economists expect the year-on-year increase in April CPI to jump from 3.3% to 3.8%; the year-on-year increase in core CPI, excluding energy and food, is expected to rise from 2.6% in March to 2.7%. PPI data will follow on Wednesday, and retail sales data to be released the same day will test consumers' ability to continue spending under pressure. These data releases come just a few days before Federal Reserve Chair Powell's last day leading the central bank (scheduled for May 15), with expectations that the Senate will submit Kevin Warsh's nomination to replace Powell for a full Senate vote by midweek. Political developments at GEO Group Inc will also be a focus for investors in the coming week. US President Trump will visit China from May 13th to 15th. Middle East peace window drastically narrows! Stock market sentiment shifts from AI momentum surge to "NACHO" theme? In the view of some Wall Street strategists, the latest political developments at GEO Group Inc signify that the Hormuz crisis has escalated from a "short-term GEO Group Inc impact" to a "global energy system restructuring cycle issue". This means that the risk premium on oil prices still remains sticky, and the market cannot just trade on "ceasefire headlines", but must trade on inventory consumption, shipping insurance, alternative channel capacity, and replenishment cycles. At the same time, with the stock market's most classic momentum trading strategy--that is, a trading strategy that sells winners in large quantities and buys losers based on various technical indicators or institutionally-tailored quantitative models--reaching extreme levels that have signaled major short-term sell-offs several times in history, this suggests that the AI-driven global stock market bull market tone and main trend, while not being disproven, may be about to enter a "correction phase driven by overheated momentum trading" in the short term. Therefore, more and more traders are now leaning towards betting on the "NACHO" trading theme, assuming that the long-term blockade of the strait is inevitable (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens). This may mean that the normalization of high oil prices will continue to suppress the Fed's room to cut interest rates, boost the relative attractiveness of large energy stocks, oil services, shipping insurance, and US shale, while putting pressure on aviation, chemicals, consumer goods, and some high-valuations growth stocks that have not yet turned profitable and are sensitive to interest rates. Interest rate cut expectations further delayed! Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns: Sticky inflation "locks in" the Fed, new Chairman Warsh may struggle to make moves. Due to inflation being stickier than expected, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has postponed its forecast for US interest rate cuts by a quarter. The bank now expects the Fed to implement the next two rate cuts in December 2026 and March 2027, respectively. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. US economics team pointed out that due to energy costs, US PCE inflation may hover around 3% throughout 2026, higher than the Fed's 2% target, which delays the necessary conditions for policy reactivation. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of PCE inflation hovering at 3% and energy costs remaining high due to the situation in the Middle East, if Warsh, in the early days of his tenure, were to hastily cut rates, it would be easily interpreted by the market as "surrendering to inflation". Once inflation expectations spiral out of control, Warsh will face a more severe crisis of trust than during Powell's time. PIMCO: If the Iran situation leads to higher inflation, the Fed may be forced to switch from "postponing rate cuts" to "restart tightening". Dan Ivascyn, Chief Investment Officer of Pimco, stated that the Middle East conflict may lead the Fed to further postpone rate cuts, or even raise borrowing costs. The CIO of this bond giant said that the soaring energy prices related to Iran's closure of the Hormuz Strait pose a new challenge to US policymakers who have been working to bring inflation rates down to the Fed's 2% target. Ivascyn said, "The US is still far from that step, but you will see Europe, the UK, and even Japan tightening policy further as they are today, and I wouldn't completely rule out the US." He added that given the dynamics of inflation and the uncertainty surrounding it, any measures to lower US rates may backfire, and that any such measures "could lead to a rise in mid-to-long term rates". Morgan Stanley sets the "June Judgment Day" for oil prices: If the US-China buffer is exhausted, Brent crude oil could aim for $150. Morgan Stanley pointed out in an unusually urgent report that the global oil market is in a race against time--if the blockade of the Hormuz Strait continues beyond June, the cushion factors that previously supported oil prices from extreme surges may completely fail, and international oil prices may experience a new round of substantial spikes. The bank's analysis suggests that the current market's ability to maintain relative "order" in the face of nearly a billion barrels of lost oil production capacity largely depends on US and Chinese buffering capacity. The bank painted a cautionary bullish scenario: if the strait remains closed for longer, oil prices could rise to the range of $130 to $150 per barrel. This forecast echoes Citigroup's target of $120 for Brent oil in 0-3 months, showing that top Wall Street institutions' pricing of tail risks is becoming more consistent. Stock-specific News Reports of Intel Corporation (INTC.US) collaborating with SK Hynix to advance advanced packaging technology. There are reports that Intel Corporation is collaborating with SK Hynix to develop advanced packaging technology based on EMIB. This technology connects multiple chips through silicon bridges, differing from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's CoWoS silicon interposer solution, and is seen as potentially easing advanced process capacity constraints. Intel Corporation surged over 3% in pre-market trading on this news. Both parties have not commented on this yet. Tech giant arms race heats up! Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) enters Swiss bond market for the first time, doubling down on AI investment. As major cloud service providers shift to new debt markets to fund capital expenditures on artificial intelligence (AI), Amazon.com, Inc. has joined the trend. According to sources, Amazon.com, Inc. is preparing for its first issuance of Swiss franc bonds. The company has appointed French bank BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank AG, and JPMorgan Chase to handle the issuance of six tranches of Swiss franc bonds with terms ranging from 3 years to 25 years. The explosive growth in AI-driven computational demand is pushing tech giants into an "if you don't invest, you're out" AI arms race. Massive investment plans are rapidly depleting cash reserves, making turning to the debt market for financing a necessary choice. In order to raise substantial funds for AI infrastructure investments, tech giants are seeking diversified financing beyond US dollar bonds. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) expands global financing map once again: after Eurobonds, plans to issue yen bonds for the first time to ramp up AI arms race. Alphabet Inc. Class C is rapidly and extensively weaving a large financing network globally. According to sources, Alphabet Inc. Class C plans to issue yen bonds for the first time, with Bank of America Corp Securities, Mizuho Securities, and Morgan Stanley hired for the potential issuance of fixed-rate senior unsecured bonds. The transaction is expected to move forward based on market conditions in the near future. As part of the SEC registration for benchmarking, this will be Alphabet Inc. Class C's first foray into the yen bond market. Turning to the Japanese market is part of Alphabet Inc. Class C's recent intense global financing strategy. The yen bond plan means that in just a few months, Alphabet Inc. Class C will have achieved comprehensive coverage of the six major currency markets of US dollars, pounds, Swiss francs, euros, Canadian dollars, and yen. Private equity giant Blackstone (BX.US) acquires majority stake in e-commerce platform Skroutz, further expanding its business in Greece. One of the world's largest alternative asset management firms, Blackstone Inc., has agreed to acquire a majority stake in the Greek online e-commerce platform Skroutz from CVC Capital Partners Plc in order to expand its business footprint in this Mediterranean country. According to a statement, Skroutz's founders will sell some of their holdings, but will retain a stake and continue to lead the company's operations, with George Chatzigeorgiou continuing as the company's CEO. The transaction values Skroutz at 635 million euros (approximately 746 million US dollars), including debt. Blackstone Inc.'s other investments in Greece include Hotel Investment Partners--which owns hotel assets throughout Greece, and Fraport Greece--which operates regional airports including those on Corfu, Rhodes, and Crete. Important Economic Data and Events Preview 11:00 PM Beijing time, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations Earnings Previews Early Tuesday: Ast SpaceMobile (ASTS.US), Tuya, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (TUYA.US) Pre-market Tuesday: Vodafone Group Plc Sponsored ADR (VOD.US), Tencent Music Entertainment Group Sponsored ADR Class A (TME.US), HUYA, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (HUYA.US)