Middle East Conflict Opens Historic Window for China’s Metal Exports

The outbreak of war in the Middle East has disrupted global metal supply chains, creating the most favorable external environment in years for China’s aluminum and copper exporters. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Persian Gulf smelting capacity have driven London aluminum prices to a four‑year high, while the Shanghai–London price spread has widened to its broadest level since 2022.

The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association forecasts record aluminum exports this year. At the same time, copper cables, solar cells, and lithium‑ion batteries are also surging, with March data showing strong growth across all categories. For Chinese producers, geopolitical shocks are translating into real order gains. Overseas demand is filling the gap left by weak domestic consumption and elevating China’s dominance in the clean‑energy supply chain.

The Persian Gulf accounts for about 9% of global aluminum supply, and damaged facilities have caused output to plunge. London Metal Exchange aluminum prices rose sharply, while premiums widened. Mo Xinda of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association described overseas premiums as “unbelievable.” China’s export tariffs, designed to safeguard domestic supply, have prevented large volumes of primary aluminum from reaching international markets, amplifying the impact of Persian Gulf disruptions on global prices.

Bloomberg reported that since late March, Chinese aluminum processors have seen a surge in overseas orders, particularly for power‑grid and automotive products. Some hot‑rolling mills are booked through June, with leading products including aluminum for electric vehicles, battery core materials, energy‑storage cooling plates, and data‑center heat‑dissipation materials. Duty‑free categories are also expanding, with aluminum stranded wire exports in April–May expected to double year‑on‑year to 40,000–50,000 tons, mainly to Belt and Road countries.

Copper exports are following a similar trajectory. Customs data show copper cable exports in March jumped 36% year‑on‑year. Clean‑energy products are also booming: solar cell exports surged 80%, lithium‑ion batteries rose 34%, and electric vehicles increased 53%. CREA advisor Xinyi Shen noted that China’s advantage stems from leadership in cost, scale, and supply‑chain integration, enabling rapid response to global demand.

High oil prices are a key driver. Wood Mackenzie said higher fossil‑energy prices support electric‑vehicle exports and copper demand. Shen added that rising fossil‑fuel prices are stimulating demand for solar and storage products, with Southeast Asia and Africa accelerating adoption of “solar + storage” solutions to replace diesel generation. China’s export data directly reflect this trend.

Policy remains a potential constraint. Export tax rebate cancellations have already affected solar cells and lithium‑ion batteries, and whether growth continues will depend partly on future policy direction. China’s April trade data, due Saturday, will provide further clues on aluminum, copper, and electric‑vehicle exports.