GF Securities: How to view the early registration date for bonus assets this year?

GF SEC released a research report stating that this year, the equity registration dates of some high-dividend companies have been significantly advanced. From an overall perspective, there may indeed be a certain probability of a decline in dividend assets after the equity registration date, but the duration is short and the decline is limited. Whether it is A-share dividends or Hong Kong stock dividends, there is no obvious effect of a decline in the middle of the year when viewed on a monthly basis. The future effect of dividend assets after the equity registration date may gradually decrease, mainly due to the widespread adoption of the "multiple dividends per year" mechanism, which has shifted the pace of dividends from concentrated to smooth, and the "buying rights-selling pressure" rally triggered by the equity registration date has substantially weakened. GF SEC's main points are as follows: Have dividends positions been reduced before June for some high-dividend companies this year? Are A-share and Hong Kong stock dividend assets really more likely to decline in the middle of the year? Whether it is A-share dividends or Hong Kong stock dividends, there is no obvious effect of a decline in the middle of the year when viewed on a monthly basis. (1) Dividend indices may still have absolute returns in the middle of the year. In June, the CSI Dividend All Return Index has a 45.0% probability of rising, with a median return of 0.1%; the Hong Kong stock dividend all return index through the Stock Connect program has a probability of increase of 54.5%, with a median return of 1.3%. (2) Statistics need to consider both the mean and median to eliminate the long tail effects caused by extreme years. For example, the average return of the CSI Dividend All Return Index in June is -2.2%, but the median is 0.1%. There may indeed be a certain probability of a decline in dividend assets after the equity registration date. Some institutions that plan to reduce their dividend positions often profit after the equity registration date and dividend payout, but historically this impact is not significant. (1) Looking at the component stocks of the index, low volatility dividend stocks usually adjust for 15-30 days after the equity registration date, with an adjustment range of 2-4%; Hang Seng stocks through the Stock Connect program with a high dividend yield typically adjust for 10 days after the registration date, with an adjustment range of 1-3%. (2) Looking at the leading dividend asset stocks, the adjustment time and range are quite varied. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China Yangtze Power, and China Shenhua Energy typically adjust 7 days, 60 days, 15 days, 15 days after the equity registration date, reaching a substantial probability of adjustment (over 70%), with adjustment ranges of -1.1%, -2.5%, -0.7%, -2.2% respectively. Different companies have varying adjustment times and ranges after the equity registration date, coupled with differences in equity registration dates, so there is no particularly obvious decline in dividend indices in June-July. The future effect of dividend assets after the equity registration date may gradually decrease. (1) This is mainly due to the widespread adoption of the "multiple dividends per year" mechanism, shifting the dividend distribution pace from a single concentrated event to a smooth one, which has substantially weakened the "buying rights-selling pressure" rally triggered by the equity registration date. In 2024-2025, 704 and 856 companies will start mid-term dividends respectively, compared to the usual number of less than 200 companies before this. With the dividend distribution pace shifting from single concentrated to multiple smooth events, the temporary underperformance caused by the "buying rights-selling pressure" around the equity registration date will significantly reduce. (2) This year, it is also worth noting that in the past two years, many companies have increased mid-term dividends, leading to a noticeable advance in the equity registration date of annual dividends, for example, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China have been moved from mid-July to mid-May, and China Construction Bank has already been moved to mid-May last year. If there is indeed selling pressure after the annual dividends this year, it may advance to mid-late May.