Huaxi: Demand in the catering industry is picking up, and the competitiveness of supply chain leaders is increasing.

Huaxi released a research report stating that the catering industry is a key beneficiary, benefiting from the comprehensive policy dividends from central planning to local implementation. Catering demand is steadily rebounding, with National Bureau of Statistics data showing that national catering revenue will reach 5.8 trillion yuan by 2025, a year-on-year growth of 3.2%. The explosive growth in bookings for New Year's Eve dinners and foot traffic in commercial areas during the Spring Festival further validates the resilience of the end market. The catering supply chain, as the underlying support for the high-quality development of the catering industry, continues to enjoy the dual benefits of policy dividends and industry expansion, with a high level of certainty in its medium- to long-term growth space. At the same time, the industry's competitive landscape is undergoing positive changes, with price wars turning into value competition. Leading enterprises have significantly improved profitability through cost control and efficiency improvement, and profit levels are showing signs of bottoming out and rebounding. Huaxi's main points are as follows: Industry DRIVE: Increase in chain rate + cost reduction and efficiency improvement, driving industry expansion China's catering supply chain market size has exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan and is the core support for the scalable development of the catering industry. The core drivers of market expansion come from two aspects: the continuous increase in the chain rate to 23%, leading to a rigid demand for standardized ingredients; and the urgent need for catering companies to reduce costs and improve efficiency. By using standardized ingredients, the proportion of labor costs can be reduced from 22% to 12%, and net profit levels can be increased. In addition, cold chain logistics infrastructure continues to improve, with a steady increase in cold storage and refrigerated truck holdings, effectively widening the radius of ingredient sales and supporting the rapid development of the industry. Industry development direction: Increase in concentration + not just new retail, entering the era of value competition With the acceleration of catering chain operations, the industry is undergoing a transition from dispersion to concentration, and the competition core is shifting from "price war" to "value war" centered on research and development innovation and supply chain capabilities. Outbound mergers and acquisitions have become important means for leading companies to optimize resource allocation and quickly bind large customers. Companies like Anyi and Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co., Ltd have entered specific segments or supply systems through acquisitions. At the same time, new retail has become an important incremental channel, with leading companies such as Anyi and Ligao achieving high growth in supermarkets and instant retail channels, opening up a second growth curve. Overseas benchmarking: Learning from mature experiences in the US and Japan, building barriers with full-chain management and efficiency first The catering supply chain markets in the US and Japan demonstrate characteristics of high concentration, high standardization, and efficiency first. For example, US CR3 distributors hold over 30% of the market share; while the Japanese market has established an industrial supply system based on "extreme cost-effectiveness" and "efficiency first" in long-term stock competition. Taking global giant Sysco as an example, it has achieved global expansion through over 200 acquisitions and built a highly competitive barrier with its self-built cold chain logistics and comprehensive digital transformation. Its heavy asset operation and one-stop service model provide important references for the development of China's supply chain leaders. Risk Warning Intensifying industry competition, slower-than-expected consumption recovery, and food safety concerns.