"Low layoffs and low dismissals" pattern solidifies the labor market, with the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States rising to 200,000 last week.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States rebounded slightly last week after falling to the lowest level in decades, indicating that despite several companies announcing layoffs recently, the overall scale of job cuts remains limited. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that, as of the week ending May 2, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 200,000, while economists had expected 205,000. For the week ending April 25, seasonally adjusted continuing jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 1.766 million, reaching a two-year low. Official data released earlier on Tuesday showed that in March, there were 0.95 job openings per unemployed person in the United States, up from 0.91 in February, in line with the overall stability of the labor market. Despite several large technology companies announcing layoffs recently, with some positions being replaced by artificial intelligence (AI), the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has remained below 230,000 since the beginning of the year, continuing the trend of "low hiring, low layoffs" that has been prevalent in recent years. Economists speculate that the technology workers who have been laid off may have received generous severance packages, and have not yet flooded the unemployment benefit application pool. A report released on Thursday by the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas showed that US employers announced layoffs of 83,387 people in April, an increase of 38% from March, but a decrease of 21% compared to the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, US employers have announced layoffs of 300,749 people, a 50% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. Most of the layoffs come from technology companies, with AI being widely cited as the main reason for the layoffs. On the other hand, there is currently no evidence that the oil price shock caused by the conflict between the US and Iran is putting pressure on the labor market. However, economists warn that the disruption in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up prices of commodities including fertilizers, petrochemical products, and aluminum, posing downside risks to the economy. It should be noted that this initial jobless claims data is not related to the highly anticipated April nonfarm payroll report to be released on Friday. Economists expect that after a rebound of 178,000 in March, the increase in nonfarm payrolls in April may slow to 62,000. The expected slowdown mainly reflects the weakening of the boost from warmer weather and the return of striking healthcare workers to their jobs. Nevertheless, this expected pace of job growth is still higher than the level currently considered necessary to keep up with the growth of the working-age population, with the estimated "break-even" employment growth rate ranging from 0 to 50,000 per month. The market expects the unemployment rate in the United States in April to remain unchanged at 4.3%. The Chicago Fed predicts a rate of 4.23% in April, rounded to 4.2%. A survey released on Tuesday by the World Economic Forum showed that the proportion of consumers who believe that employment is "difficult to obtain" decreased in April, while the proportion who believe that employment opportunities are "abundant" remained relatively stable.