Overnight US stocks | Trump refuses to confirm whether the US-Iran ceasefire agreement is still valid. The three major indices fell, and Bitcoin broke through $80,000. Circle (CRCL.US) surged nearly 20%.

The three major indices fell on Monday. The latest developments in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, further fueling concerns about instability in the region. On Monday, the United Arab Emirates said it intercepted multiple missiles launched from Iran. This is the first time the UAE's missile alert system has been activated since the ceasefire between the US and Iran began last month. US Stock MarketAt the close, the Dow fell 557.37 points, or 1.13%, to 48,941.90; the Nasdaq fell 46.64 points, or 0.19%, to 25,067.80; the S&P 500 fell 29.37 points, or 0.41%, to 7,200.75. Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) down 1%, Intel Corporation (INTC.US) down nearly 4%, Circle (CRCL.US) up nearly 20%, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) up 6%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.09%, NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (NIO.US) rose nearly 3%. US Dollar IndexThe US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.22% to close at 98.377 in the forex market. At the close of the New York forex market, 1 euro exchanged for $1.1692, lower than the previous trading day's $1.1731; 1 pound exchanged for $1.3534, lower than the previous trading day's $1.3589. 1 US dollar exchanged for 157.24 yen, higher than the previous trading day's 157.02 yen; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.7836 Swiss francs, higher than the previous trading day's 0.7811 Swiss francs; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.3611 Canadian dollars, higher than the previous trading day's 1.3587 Canadian dollars; 1 US dollar exchanged for 9.2861 Swedish krona, higher than the previous trading day's 9.2172 Swedish krona. CryptocurrencyBitcoin broke through the $80,000 mark, trading at $80,067.22; Ethereum rose to $2,354.58. Crude OilThe price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $4.48 to close at $106.42 per barrel, up 4.39%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery on London rose $6.27 to close at $114.44 per barrel, up 5.8%. Precious MetalsSpot gold fell below the $4,600 mark, closing at $4,518.52 per ounce; spot silver closed at $72.62 per ounce Macro News Trump says the US is in a "mini war" with Iran. On May 4th local time, US President Trump said at a small business summit at the White House that the current conflict between the US and Iran has already constituted a "war," which he called a "mini war." Trump said, "They did a poll about a war with Iran and said only 32% of the people support it. I dont like war, not one bit." He added, "What we're doing, I call it a 'mini war'." It is reported that Trump had been advised to avoid the use of the word "war", and House Speaker Johnson had previously stated that the US is "not currently at war". Trump refuses to confirm if the US-Iran ceasefire agreement is still valid. US President Trump refused to confirm in an interview whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is still valid. When asked if the ceasefire had ended and if military strikes could resume, Trump said, "I can't tell you that. If I answer that, you would say that this person is not smart enough to be President." Earlier in the day, Trump warned in an interview that if Iran tries to attack US ships in the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, they "will be totally destroyed." However, he later stated that from a military perspective, the conflict with Iran is "basically over." Media: The Trump administration is considering introducing government regulations on a new AI model. The White House is reportedly discussing an executive order to establish an artificial intelligence task force, which will bring together technology company executives and government officials to study potential regulatory procedures. One possible plan is to establish a formal government review process for new AI models. Last week, White House officials presented part of the plan to executives from Anthropic, Alphabet Inc. Class C, and OpenAI during a meeting. The task force may consider various regulatory options, with the review process possibly involving multiple government agencies to ensure models meet safety standards. This move signals a significant shift in the Trump administration's AI policy. Since returning to the White House last year, Trump has been a strong supporter of AI technology, quickly overturning the Biden administration's regulatory process that required AI developers to undergo safety assessments and report potential military applications of their models. The policy shift has caused confusion. According to sources familiar with the matter, during ongoing discussions between the White House and tech companies, some executives believe that excessive government regulation will slow down innovation, and there is no consensus among companies on potential regulatory approaches. Federal Reserve's Williams: Fed policy balances uncertainty in war. New York Federal Reserve President Williams said that in the context of a "significant" disruption in supply chains caused by the Iran war, the Fed's current policy stance has struck a balance between the risks of price stability and full employment. Williams said on Monday, "High levels of inflation, mixed signals from the job market, and increased uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East present an unusual set of circumstances, but the current monetary policy stance is in a favorable position to balance among various risks." The Fed kept interest rates unchanged last week, but three officials opposed the wording of a "dovish inclination" in the post-meeting statement and advocated using language that indicated the next rate action could be either a hike or a cut. In his speech on Monday, Williams avoided this debate. He compared the supply chain disruptions caused by the Iran war to the supply chain issues in the post-epidemic period, while implying that the space for sustained inflation this time may be smaller. Williams said, "This echoes the severe shortages and supply disruptions that the global economy experienced in 2021 as it emerged from the epidemic. But unlike then, the job market is currently not exacerbating inflationary pressure." "In addition, the underlying inflation, excluding imported goods and energy, has remained stable so far, and there are also no signs of significant second-round transmission effects of tariffs on the overall economy." Williams expects the US economy to grow by 2% to 2.25% this year and next, with the unemployment rate staying in the recent range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Individual Stock News Tesla, Inc. continued its rebound in Europe in April. In April, new car registrations for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) vehicles in several European markets continued to recover: in Sweden, France, and Denmark, registrations more than doubled; there was also growth in the Netherlands; however, there was a sharp decline in Norway and Spain. After experiencing two consecutive years of annual declines, Tesla, Inc.'s sales in Europe are rebounding strongly this year. This is due to a lower base effect, as well as consumer interest in alternatives to gasoline cars increasing after the surge in gasoline prices caused by the Iran war. Anthropic announces a joint venture worth $1.5 billion with Wall Street giants. Anthropic is teaming up with Blackstone Inc. (BX.US), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS.US), and several other Wall Street Financial Institutions, Inc. to establish a joint venture aimed at selling artificial intelligence tools to various companies, including those backed by private equity funds. It is expected that this new company will operate as a consulting services division of Anthropic. According to sources, Anthropic, Blackstone Inc., and Hellman & Friedman are the core initiators of the deal, with each party expected to invest approximately $300 million. Sources also revealed that Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is expected to invest around $150 million. In addition, other investors in this joint venture include Atlantic China Welding Consumables, Inc. investment group, Leonard Green & Partners, Apollo Global Management Inc., Singapore Government Investment Corporation, and Sequoia Capital. According to sources, the joint venture project is expected to raise a total of around $1.5 billion.