Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all fell together as oil prices rose in the midst of ongoing tension in the Middle East.

Pre-market market trends 1. Before the market opened on May 4th (Monday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell together. As of the time of writing, the Dow futures were down 0.42%, the S&P 500 futures were down 0.20%, and the Nasdaq futures were down 0.06%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 0.07%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.14%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.84%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.96%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 2.05%, to $104.03 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 2.76%, to $111.16 per barrel. Market News US stock market hits record high to start "super week": Semiconductor giants take turns to release earnings, can "AI enlarging the labor cake" become a new growth narrative? The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index both closed at historical highs last Friday. After a strong start to May last Friday and the earnings reports of five of the "Big Seven Tech" companies last week, investors are now entering a new week. For upcoming earnings reports, AMD (AMD.US) will report on Tuesday, Arm (ARM.US) on Wednesday, providing investors with another perspective on the trading situation in the artificial intelligence field. Also noteworthy are Palantir (PLTR.US), Palarum Skies (PSKY.US), Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B (NVO.US), and a series of other major companies' earnings reports. In terms of economic data, all eyes will be on the April jobs report released on Friday. After months of volatile employment data (including 178,000 new jobs added in March), economists predict weak job growth this month, with only 60,000 new jobs expected to be added. Additionally, investors will see ISM business condition data on Tuesday, ADP and Charinjay-Gray-Christmas Company employment data on Wednesday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (market sentiment indicator) on Friday. Breaking news! Iran: two missiles hit a US warship trying to enter the Strait of Hormuz! On May 3rd local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "True Social" stating that the US will launch an operation in the Middle East on the morning of the 4th to guide ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz to leave the area. According to Iranian sources on the 4th, two missiles hit a US Navy ship that day. The ship violated traffic and maritime safety regulations near Jask that day, attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and was attacked by missiles after ignoring warnings from the Iranian Navy. Due to the attack, the US warship was unable to continue sailing, forced to return and leave the area. As a result of this news, international oil prices surged. However, according to Axios, a senior US official stated that the Iranian missiles did not hit any ships, which helped US stock index futures recover some of their initial losses. Fed and Treasury views diverge! Kashkari worries about persistent conflict driving up inflation, while Bessent is optimistic that post-war oil prices will immediately fall. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believes that the longer the war in Iran continues, the greater the risk of high inflation and broader economic damage, making any recent signals on interest rates from the Fed more complicated. Kashkari says policymakers cannot assume that interest rates will be cut in the future. He said, "I am not inclined to suggest that rate cuts are already planned. You must know that we may face worse situations and may even have to move in the opposite direction." Meanwhile, Bessent expressed a more optimistic tone, believing that once the conflict ends, oil prices may fall. Bessent stated in the program that the war and other developments in oil production "make me very confident that oil prices on the other side of the conflict will be far lower than at the start of the conflict, early this year, or at any point between 2020 and 2025." Bessent also stated that futures markets have priced in expectations of energy prices falling later this year. Key compromise reached on US cryptocurrency legislation: breakthrough in stablecoin income terms, "CLARITY Act" to speed up. After months of intense negotiations, a major breakthrough has finally been made in the US cryptocurrency market structure legislation. Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks have reached a comprehensive agreement on stablecoin income terms, clearing the main obstacle to the progress of the "CLARITY Act" in the Senate. According to the obtained text, this compromise places significant restrictions on the rewards and incentives offered by stablecoins. The agreement explicitly states that all mechanisms that provide rewards "economically or functionally equivalent to" interest on bank deposits will be prohibited. This broad restriction aims to prevent stablecoins from directly competing with traditional bank savings products, in response to long-standing concerns in the banking sector about "capital outflows." However, the agreement does not impose a blanket ban, but instead retains a considerable degree of flexibility. Stablecoin balances can be used for incentive mechanisms, but must pass an "equivalency test." This means that cryptocurrency companies can still provide incentives to users under certain conditions, but high-yield models that mimic banking interest structures will be cut off. 2.5 billion barrels of crude oil have been shipped overseas, US inventories down for four weeks - how long can the global "last supplier" hold? Over the past nine weeks, the US has exported more than 2.5 billion barrels of crude oil overseas, becoming the world's leading export country. With the Strait of Hormuz close to a standstill and supply disruptions in the Middle East, the US is effectively taking on the role of a critical global energy source. However, the rapid increase in export volume also exposes potential risks. US domestic inventories are clearly decreasing, with total reserves of crude oil and refined products decreasing for four consecutive weeks and falling below historical average levels, while the production side is also facing pressure to maintain output. Some experts warn that the US is digging a hole for itself by depleting its reserves, and this supply buffer capacity is rapidly approaching its limit. If US export capacity is approaching its limit, competition for oil on a global scale will intensify further. Some options traders have even started hedging against the risk of a sharp drop in US crude oil exports. Powell remaining on the Board a double-edged sword: Each vote is politically interpreted and could become a target for the government. To prevent Trump's "political manipulation" of the Fed, Powell has abandoned his retirement plans. In a press conference last week, Powell stated that legal actions initiated by the Trump administration have crossed key boundaries and may change the way the Fed operates. He said a series of events over the past three months left him "no choice." He believes that staying on the board is to ensure that monetary policy can operate free from political interference. Powell did not specify how long he will serve as a board member, as his term was originally scheduled to continue until early 2028. Several people familiar with his thinking believe that he may stay for a longer period in the current environment, as it is difficult to confirm whether government actions will change. However, this decision also brings new risks to the Fed. Nick Timiraos, who is often referred to as the "Fed sounding board," says that each statement made by Powell as a board member could be given political meaning. His presence could also become a new target for government pressure, making it a more complicated situation for incoming Chairman Wash to take over the institution that his predecessor presided over for eight years. Stock News GameStop Corp. Class A (GME.US) makes a bold move with "snake-swallowing-elephant" strategy! CEO Conn's, Inc. plans to acquire eBay (EBAY.US) at a premium of $56 billion, aiming to create a new e-commerce empire worth trillions. According to reports, GameStop Corp. Class A CEO Ryan Conn's, Inc. revealed that the company plans to acquire e-commerce platform eBay for approximately $56 billion in cash and stock. Conn's, Inc. disclosed to media that he plans to offer a cash and stock price of $125 per share for this online retailer, a 20% premium over its closing price last Friday. GameStop Corp. Class A already holds approximately 5% of eBay and has obtained a commitment letter for $20 billion in debt financing from JPMorgan Chase Bank for this transaction. Conn's, Inc. stated that he is prepared to engage in a proxy fight and will directly submit the takeover offer to shareholders when necessary. As of the time of writing, GameStop Corp. Class A rose by over 2% in pre-market trading on Monday, while eBay rose by nearly 9%. "Stock God" Buffett's latest report card for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A.US) after stepping down: net profit surges by 120% in the first quarter, cash reserves reach new high. The financial report shows that Berkshire Hathaway achieved a net profit of $10.11 billion in the first quarter, an increase of approximately 120% from $4.603 billion in the same period last year; operating profit was $11.35 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase. Cash reserves reached a record high of $397.38 billion in the first quarter. The significant increase in net profit is mainly driven by realized investment gains. In the first quarter of this year, Berkshire recorded $5.8 billion in after-tax realized gains from investment sales, more than doubling the $2.4 billion in the first quarter of 2025. With the contributions from realized gains, Berkshire's investment business had a net loss of $1.24 billion in the first quarter, compared to a net loss of $5.038 billion in the same period last year. As of March 31, 2026, 61% of Berkshire's total fair value of equity investments were concentrated in American Express Company, Apple Inc., Bank of America Corp, Chevron Corporation, and Coca-Cola Company. Upcoming economic data and events 12:50 AM Beijing time the next day: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speech Earnings Preview Tuesday morning: Palantir (PLTR.US), ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON.US) Tuesday pre-market: HSBC (HSBC.US), Eaton Corp. Plc (ETN.US), Pfizer Inc. (PFE.US), GSX Techedu Inc. (GFS.US)