The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have different views: Kashkari worries that the conflict will continue to push up inflation, while Brainard is optimistic that oil prices will fall immediately after the war.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari said that the longer the war involving Iran lasts, the greater the risks of rising inflation and broader economic damage, making any recent signals from the Fed about interest rates more complicated. Kashkari said on Sunday that he is closely monitoring the conflict and the economic consequences of the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is a key passage for about 20% of global oil and gas supply. The conflict began after US President Trump and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28, causing a sharp increase in global energy prices and adding pressure to the already severe inflation background in the United States. Given this uncertainty, Kashkari stated that policymakers cannot assume a rate cut in the future. He said, "I am not inclined to suggest that a rate cut is in the works. We must realize that we may be facing a worse situation and may even have to act in the opposite direction." Disagreements within the Fed about future actions At last week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, while retaining language hinting that the next move may still be a rate cut. Kashkari, along with the presidents of the Cleveland and Dallas Feds, voted against this policy guidance. Fed Governor Stephen Milne dissented separately, advocating for an immediate rate cut. These three dissenting regional Fed presidents support keeping interest rates stable and subsequently stated that borrowing costs could rise or fall depending on how the war affects economic growth and prices. If the energy shock appears temporary, Fed officials often ignore it. But several policymakers point out that before this event, the inflation rate had been above the Fed's 2% target for several years. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed concern on Saturday, calling recent inflation data "bad news." In March, the overall Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index rose 3.5% year-on-year. Kashkari expects a long recovery for the supply chain Kashkari said that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly, it does not mean that trade flows will immediately return to normal. Kashkari said, "Just last week, I had a conversation with the CEO of a multinational company headquartered in Minnesota with a global supply chain. They estimate that even if the strait is reopened today, it may take six months for their supply chain to recover to a level similar to normal." Besenette expects oil prices to fall after the conflict US Treasury Secretary Besenette expressed a more optimistic tone, believing that once the fighting ends, oil prices may fall. Besenette said on the show that the war and other developments in oil production dynamics "make me very confident that oil prices on the other side of the conflict will be much lower than at any point before the conflict, earlier this year, or between 2020 and 2025." Besenette also stated that the futures market has priced in expectations for energy prices to fall later this year, arguing that Iran's limited success in charging fees for ships passing through the strait is due to the US naval blockade. He added that the US will benefit from the turmoil because it can export oil, with the main limitation currently being the speed of loading and shipping goods overseas.