Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures are mixed, the game between the US and Iran may bring new variables, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) rose more than 3% before the market opening.

Pre-market market trends 1. On May 1st (Friday), before the US stock market opened, futures for the three major US stock indexes showed mixed movements. As of the time of this report, Dow Jones futures rose 0.37%, S&P 500 index futures rose 0.27%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.03%. 2. On May 1st, European stock markets were closed for Labor Day holidays in many countries, with only the London stock market trading. As of the time of this report, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.6%. 3. As of the time of this report, WTI crude oil futures prices fell by 0.84% to $104.19 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 0.51% to $110.96 per barrel. Market News The US announced the "end of hostile actions" against Iran, shifting its strategic focus towards deep economic blockade and diplomatic confrontation. Senior US government officials announced on April 30th that the "hostile actions" resulting from the joint military operation against Iran under the codename "Operation Epic Wrath" initiated on February 28th this year have ended. The core consideration of the US is to avoid crossing legal red lines, as the Trump administration formally notified Congress on March 2nd of the military actions taken, which, according to US law, must be concluded within 60 days, by May 1st. President Trump can extend the deadline by 30 days to complete the withdrawal. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has reshaped global shipping, with record high oil tanker traffic passing through the Cape of Good Hope. With the continuing conflicts in the Middle East, the volume of oil tankers passing through the Cape of Good Hope reached a historic high in mid-April, leading to a structural long-term shift in the Asia-Europe shipping routes. Ships are now avoiding the Gulf and Suez Canal routes and choosing longer routes around the southern tip of Africa, reshaping the global maritime logistics landscape. Since the attack by Houthi rebels in Yemen on Red Sea shipping in 2023, ships on the Asia-Europe route have been detouring around the Cape of Good Hope. Following a partial ceasefire in Gaza in October last year, some shipping companies tentatively returned to direct routes through the Suez Canal. However, after the US and Israel started military actions against Iran and Iran retaliated in the Gulf, market concerns about the Houthi rebels restarting attacks on ships led ship owners to completely abandon plans to return to the Red Sea route, resulting in a significant increase in shipping traffic around the Cape of Good Hope. The revenue expansion of super-large-scale cloud computing companies is becoming the most important validation signal for the return on investment (ROIC) of generative AI this year. Microsoft Corporation, Alphabet Inc. Class C, and Amazon.com, Inc., the three cloud computing giants, all delivered impressive results in one night, highlighting the explosive growth of their cloud computing business due to the AI wave and prompting Wall Street to reprice the commercial returns of AI. According to the latest research report from Morgan Stanley's analysts, the five super-large-scale technology giants (Amazon.com, Inc., Alphabet Inc. Class C, Meta, Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation) are expected to have a combined capital expenditure of around $800 billion in 2026, and are likely to exceed $1.1 trillion in 2027, surpassing the previous forecast of $950 billion. Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the logic behind these massive capital investments is to first reinvest and build capacity, and then rely on scale commercial revenue and ROIC returns based on AI computational resources; the surge in backlogged orders for cloud computing is the most direct evidence that this logic is working, and the cloud computing businesses of these giants are showing an explosive growth rate that is prompting Wall Street to redefine the commercial returns of AI. OpenAI's CFO responds to doubts about meeting targets: demand remains strong. Sarah Friar, chief financial officer of OpenAI, responded to concerns about the company not meeting internal targets, stating that the company is achieving its established goals and that product demand is showing "a vertical wall of demand". In an interview on Thursday, Friar stated, "Overall, we feel that we are exceeding our plans, but the specific paths to implementation may vary at different stages, as this is still a young business and it is difficult to be completely predictable in every metric. The AI wave is driving a 48% increase in South Korea's exports, with semiconductor chips as the core driving engine of trade growth. South Korea's exports continued their strong momentum in April, despite increasing risks of rising energy prices due to the turmoil in Iran, with strong demand for semiconductors continuing to support export growth. The Ministry of Trade announced on Friday that, after adjusting for differences in working days, exports increased by 48% compared to the same period last year; unadjusted exports also increased by 48%, compared to the revised 49.2% increase for the full month of March. Imports increased by 16.7% during the same period, resulting in a trade surplus of $23.8 billion. The semiconductor industry remains the absolute core engine driving South Korea's trade growth. Industry giants such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have benefited from the premium and surge in orders for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and other high-end products, driving the semiconductor export price index to the fastest growth rate in decades. With orders from major AI accelerator manufacturers extending to 2025 or even further, this rigid demand driven by technological change successfully offsets the slowing export pressure in traditional manufacturing sectors such as automobiles and steel. Japanese government intervention in the foreign exchange market scale emerges! Suspected of spending $34.5 billion to support the yen, the foreign exchange market enters a "highly volatile golden week". The yen continued to strengthen on Friday, with a report summarizing the analysis of the Bank of Japan's accounts by Wall Street foreign exchange strategists, indicating that the Japanese Ministry of Finance may have spent about $34.5 billion on Thursday, the latest intervention in the foreign exchange market to support the yen since July 2024. On Friday, Japanese media reported that the Japanese government is on standby for 24 hours to deal with significant currency market fluctuations and is prepared to intervene again, which also means that there may be unusually severe volatility in the foreign exchange market during the Golden Week holiday. In Japan, the Golden Week holiday will continue until next Wednesday. Due to the recent high market volatility, Masuki Tokuyuki and his colleagues, including the top-level Japanese foreign exchange official Atsushi Mimura, remain highly vigilant, and Masuki warned foreign exchange traders to do the same; she stated on Thursday that even during the five-day Golden Week holiday, traders are better off not putting down their phones. Stock News Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) reported Q2 revenue and profits exceeding expectations: iPhone 17 performance strong, exceeding expectations, driving pre-market stock price rally. Apple Inc. released its financial performance report for the second quarter of its 2026 fiscal year after the market closed on April 30th. The report showed that Apple Inc. achieved total revenue of $111.18 billion in the quarter, a significant increase of 17% year-on-year, far exceeding the Wall Street analysts' previous forecast of $109.66 billion, with the growth momentum coming mainly from the explosive demand for the iPhone 17 series in global markets and the strong recovery of the Mac business. In terms of profits, Apple Inc. also set a new record for the March quarter, with a net profit of $29.58 billion, an increase of 19% year-on-year; diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $2.01, an increase of 22% compared to the same period last year, significantly higher than the market's general expectation of $1.95. At the same time, the company's gross profit margin rose to 49.3%, showing strong profitability. Looking at product lines, the iPhone business remains the core growth engine for Apple Inc., with single-quarter revenue reaching $56.99 billion, an increase of about 24% from $45.96 billion in the same period last year. Management pointed out that the iPhone 17 series has become the most popular model in the company's history during this period. As of the time of this report, Apple Inc.'s stock price was up more than 3% in pre-market trading. Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US) and SanDisk (SNDK.US) reported earnings exceeding expectations but saw a sharp drop in pre-market stock prices, reflecting caution in the market due to high expectations, high valuations, and overheated positions in the industry. Against the backdrop of the ongoing AI wave driving data storage demand growth, the latest earnings and future performance outlook of the two major US storage super giants - Western Digital Corporation and SanDisk - were strong, but their stock prices dropped in pre-market trading, reflecting market caution behind the high growth expectations, high valuations, and overheated positions in the industry. At the industry level, as AI infrastructure construction accelerates, the data storage and storage chip industry continues to experience a comprehensive explosion in demand. Major technology giants including Amazon.com, Inc., Microsoft Corporation, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms are expected to invest over $700 billion in the AI data center field this year, which may further drive exponential growth in storage demand. In the context of high oil prices caused by political conflicts in the Middle East, the US oil and gas giant Chevron Corporation (CVX.US) reported strong performance. The company announced an adjusted earnings per share of $1.41, well above the market's overall expected earnings per share of $0.95, as shown by LSEG's data. Despite significantly outperforming expectations, overall profits hit a five-year low, partly due to unfavorable impacts related to financial derivatives. Chevron Corporation's largest operating segment, the upstream business segment, generated $3.9 billion in profit, a 4% increase year-on-year, driven by a substantial increase in revenue due to higher oil prices. "Despite the heightened political turmoil in the Middle East and its resulting supply disruptions, Chevron Corporation delivered solid performance in the first quarter, highlighting the resilience of our product portfolio and the value of disciplined execution," said Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth in a statement. The conflict in Iran that erupted on February 28 severely disrupted the global energy market. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a standstill, leading to supply shortages and pushing up oil prices, resulting in a 50% increase in international oil prices in the first calendar quarter. Another US oil and gas giant, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM.US), also reported strong performance. The company's total revenue for the first quarter was approximately $85.138 billion, higher than the $83.130 billion in the same period last year; GAAP net profit was $4.183 billion, down from $7.713 billion in the same period last year; diluted EPS was $1.00, below $1.76 in the same period last year. However, excluding identified items, adjusted profit was $4.889 billion, with an adjusted EPS of $1.16, higher than the market's expected $1.00 per share; upstream remains the absolute core pillar. Q1 upstream profit was $5.737 billion, higher than $3.517 billion in the previous quarter, but lower than $6.756 billion in the same period last year; upstream profit excluding timing impacts was $6.265 billion. Exxon remains a high-quality defensive leader in a high oil price, global energy security reassessment, and upstream asset scarcity environment; but compared to Chevron Corporation, its exposure to the Middle East is higher. Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A (EL.US) saw moderate revenue recovery, significant profit margin improvement, and the beginning of its transformation plan paying off, leading to a pre-market stock price increase of over 8%. The company reported net sales of $3.712 billion for the third quarter, up 5% year-on-year; organic net sales grew by 2%; the gross profit margin increased from 75.0% in the same period last year to 76.4%; however, GAAP operating profit was $249 million, a 19% decrease year-on-year, mainly impacted by restructuring costs and provisions for securities class action losses. The adjusted operating profit, which better reflects operational quality, was $557 million, a 38% increase year-on-year; the adjusted operating profit margin increased from 11.4% to 15.0%; and the adjusted diluted EPS was $0.91, a 40% increase year-on-year, significantly higher than market expectations. Perfumes have become the strongest growth engine, while skincare and cosmetics are still in a phase of repair rather than full prosperity. Net sales of perfumes were $628 million, reporting a 13% increase, and organic growth of 10%. The management raised full-year guidance, which is the most important catalyst for the stock price in this financial report. The company now expects organic net sales growth of about 3% for the fiscal year 2026, at the high end of the previous range of 1% to 3%; the adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be 10.7% to 11.0%; and the adjusted EPS guidance has been raised from $2.05 to $2.25 to $2.35 to $2.45. Important Economic Data and Events 21:45 Beijing time: US April S&P Global, Inc. Manufacturing PMI final value 22:00 Beijing time: US April ISM Manufacturing PMI, US April ISM Manufacturing PMI, US April ISM Employment Index