Citigroup: AIA (01299) first-quarter new business value increased by 17% exceeding expectations. Target price is 103 Hong Kong dollars.

Citigroup issued a research report stating that AIA (01299) first quarter new business value increased by 17% year-on-year (real exchange rate) or 13% (fixed exchange rate) to 1.757 billion USD, higher than the market consensus collected by the company, with expected growth of 13% and 9% respectively. Excluding the Thai market (which had an exceptionally high base due to regulatory policy changes in the first quarter of 2025), the Group's new business value is expected to increase by 22% at fixed exchange rates. Citigroup maintains a "buy" rating on AIA with a target price of 103 Hong Kong dollars. The growth in new business value during the period was mainly driven by a 20% year-on-year increase in annualized new premiums, although the profit margin of new business value fell by 1.5 percentage points to 56% (real exchange rate). In terms of market segmentation, the performance of the Hong Kong and mainland China markets was leading, with new business value increasing by 21% and 26% respectively at fixed exchange rates. The mainland China market benefited from strong performance in agency and bank insurance channels. AIA launched a new 1.7 billion USD share buyback plan on March 30, 2026, and had repurchased approximately 614 million USD as of April 29.