China Securities Co., Ltd: Canceled US-Iran negotiations trigger rise in oil prices, impact on natural gas supply chain may continue.

China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that Trump temporarily canceled the US-Iran meeting, attributing the reason to internal divisions in Iran; Iran still intends to continue subsequent negotiations and calls on the US to ease its position. The US military continues to block Iranian ports, forcing multiple ships to change course. Geopolitical tensions are once again tense, driving up the prices of US and Brent crude oil in the dark market. The supply chain for natural gas continues to be impacted, and market tension may persist. An International Energy Agency report on April 24 stated that Middle East conflicts are hindering strait transportation, restricting nearly 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, leading to higher gas prices in Asia and Europe. Damage to facilities in Qatar is delaying global gas production expansion, leading to a wider mid-term supply gap, and the tight supply-demand situation may continue until 2027. Key points from China Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows: Industry Overview Looking at the performance of various transportation sub-sectors relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 this week (April 20th to April 24th), the transportation sector as a whole declined. The logistics comprehensive sector fell by 0.96% this week, with the raw material supply chain service sector falling by 3.32%. Unexpected change in US-Iran negotiations, international crude oil dark market prices rise US President Trump announced the cancellation of the US delegation's trip to Pakistan for a meeting with Iran, citing the time-consuming nature of the trip and internal divisions among Iranian leadership, stating that the US holds all negotiation chips; Iranian diplomats have indicated that the two sides may hold a second round of negotiations in the coming days and are requesting the US to reduce threatening rhetoric. The US Central Command also announced that they will continue to enforce a comprehensive blockade on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports, resulting in 37 ships being forced to change course. On the market side, crude oil dark market prices spiked, with Brent crude oil dark market trading at $100.85 per barrel and New York crude oil dark market trading at $95.71 per barrel as of 6:30 am on the 26th. Continued impact on the natural gas supply chain, market tension may persist until 2027 On April 24th, the International Energy Agency released a quarterly report on the natural gas market, stating that the conflict in the Middle East has led to disruptions in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in nearly 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply exiting the market, causing gas prices in Asia and Europe to reach their highest levels since January 2023, with demand shrinking in major import markets. The report also mentioned that Qatari liquefied natural gas infrastructure has been damaged, delaying the global liquefied natural gas production expansion for at least two years, leading to a potential reduction of approximately 120 billion cubic meters in supply from 2026 to 2030, and the tight market situation may persist until 2027. The International Energy Agency recommends increasing investments across the entire industry chain, strengthening international cooperation, and import countries diversifying long-term contracts to mitigate risks from price fluctuations. Risk Analysis Global trade risks amid the ongoing escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict; global macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; logistics prices affected by policy regulatory changes; significant increases in fuel costs.